Parma vs Cagliari Predictions

Serie ASerie A · Italy
high confidence
Parma

Parma

Full Time

1 - 1

AI predicted 1 - 1

Cagliari

Cagliari

🗓️ Friday, 27 Feb 2026 at 20:45 CET (venue time) · 19:45 UTC (your time)📍 Stadio Ennio Tardini, Parma

Win Probability (1X2)

Parma 33%Draw 39%Cagliari 28%

Best Value Pick

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

@ 5.8(+2% edge)

Match Result

7.2/10

Late Drama as Parma and Cagliari Share the Spoils in Stadio Ennio Tardini Stalemate

Parma and Cagliari played out a tense 1-1 draw at Stadio Ennio Tardini, with both sides trading second-half blows in a match defined by momentum swings and missed opportunities. After a cagey first half, Cagliari broke the deadlock in the 63rd minute, only for Parma to respond with a late equalizer in the 83rd minute, ensuring the points were shared in this Serie A encounter. Parma enjoyed a slight edge in possession (55%) and crafted more chances (15 shots, 4 on target), but Cagliari’s resilience and clinical counterattacking—reflected in their 5 shots on target from 11 attempts—kept the hosts at bay for much of the contest. Both sides saw yellow cards brandished in a physical midfield battle, but neither could find a decisive winner in a match that ebbed and flowed until the final whistle.

🔮 AI Prediction Report

PSYCHIC MODE

Predicted

1 - 1

🎯

Actual

1 - 1

✅Result
❌BTTS
✅O/U 2.5
✅Score

💰 Bet Results1/1 hit

correct_score — 1-1
❓
double_chance — X2
❓
over_under_2_5 — under@ 1.1
✅

Key Moments

63' — Goal

Semih Kılıçsoy puts Cagliari ahead, finishing off a swift counterattack.

83' — Goal

Parma equalize through a well-worked move, with Adrián Bernabé providing the assist.

Various' — Yellow Cards

A total of 6 yellow cards (2 for Parma, 4 for Cagliari) punctuate a fiercely contested midfield battle.

Parma

Parma

6.8/10

Parma started on the front foot, controlling possession and dictating the tempo with their 3-1-4-2 formation. Despite generating 15 shots and 5 corners, clear-cut chances were at a premium, and they found themselves trailing after Cagliari struck on the break. The hosts rallied late, pushing numbers forward and eventually finding the equalizer in the 83rd minute, but their profligacy in front of goal and some wayward finishing cost them all three points. Defensively, Parma were largely solid but occasionally vulnerable to Cagliari’s swift transitions. The midfield, anchored by Mandela Keita, worked tirelessly to regain control after falling behind, but the lack of a clinical edge in attack was evident.

Key Players

Adrián Bernabé: Instrumental in midfield, orchestrating play and providing the assist for the equalizer.
Edoardo Corvi: Made several key saves to keep Parma in the match, particularly in the first half.

Strengths

Midfield controlLate attacking impetusSet-piece threat

Weaknesses

FinishingDefensive lapses on the counterDiscipline (2 yellow cards)
Cagliari

Cagliari

6.9/10

Cagliari executed their 3-5-2 game plan with discipline, absorbing Parma’s pressure and looking to hit on the break. Their patience paid off in the 63rd minute when they took the lead, capitalizing on a rare defensive lapse from the hosts. Despite conceding more possession, Cagliari were efficient with their chances—registering 5 shots on target from 11 attempts—and looked dangerous in transition. However, as Parma pressed for an equalizer, Cagliari’s defensive line was increasingly stretched, and a late lapse allowed the hosts to level. Four yellow cards reflected their physical approach, but in the end, they held on for a valuable away point.

Key Players

Semih Kılıçsoy: Scored the opening goal, providing a constant threat on the break.
Elia Caprile: Made crucial saves to preserve Cagliari’s lead before finally being beaten late on.

Strengths

CounterattackingDefensive organizationClinical finishing

Weaknesses

Susceptibility to late pressureDiscipline (4 yellow cards)Limited possession

Tactical Analysis

Parma lined up in a 3-1-4-2, seeking to dominate the midfield and use width through Emanuele Valeri and Christian Ordoñez. Their approach yielded more possession and territorial advantage, but Cagliari’s compact 3-5-2 shape frustrated the hosts, especially in the first half. Cagliari were content to soak up pressure and spring forward, with Semih Kılıçsoy and Sebastiano Esposito providing pace on the break. Substitutions in the second half saw Parma push more bodies forward, increasing their attacking threat, while Cagliari dropped deeper to protect their lead. The tactical chess match intensified after the opening goal, with Parma’s late surge eventually breaking through Cagliari’s rearguard. Set pieces and wide play were key for Parma, while Cagliari’s transitions remained their main weapon.

Turning Point

Parma’s equalizer in the 83rd minute, which shifted momentum and denied Cagliari a hard-fought away win.

Man of the Match

Adrián Bernabé

Pulled the strings in midfield and delivered the crucial assist for Parma’s late equalizer.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

Parma0.75

Expected goals · model says 0.75

Cagliari0.70

Expected goals · model says 0.70

Win Probability
Parma 33% Draw 37% Cagliari 30%

Over 2.5 Goals

18%

BTTS: Yes

27%

Likely Scores

0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

Parma vs Cagliari Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
33%
39%
28%
Parma 33%Draw 39%Cagliari 28%
Both Teams to Score
36%
64%
Yes 36%No 64%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
19%
81%
Over 2.5 19%Under 2.5 81%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
50%
50%
Over 9.5 50%Under 9.5 50%

Who do you think wins: Parma vs Cagliari?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This Parma vs Cagliari Prediction

This is a clash between two evenly matched sides struggling for consistency and goals. Parma come in with two wins but have a poor home record and have scored only 10 goals in 13 home games. Cagliari have a slightly better attack but are unreliable on the road. Both teams have similar defensive numbers and are tied on points in the league. Recent head-to-heads strongly favor Cagliari, but the underlying stats point to a low-scoring, tense encounter where neither side is likely to dominate.

Key Factors at a Glance

Recent Form

  • →Last 5 form: Parma (WWLLD), Cagliari (DLLWW), both inconsistent.
  • →H2H: Cagliari unbeaten in last 3, 5 wins in last 10, Parma only 1 win.

Attack

  • →Parma's home record: 3W-4D-6L, only 10 goals scored in 13 home games.
  • →Both teams average under 1.2 goals scored per game.

Defence

  • →Cagliari's away record: 3W-4D-6L, 13 goals scored, 20 conceded.

Injuries & Team News

  • →Injuries are not a factor; both squads at full strength.

Match Context

  • →Both teams have exactly 29 points and negative goal differences.

🚩 Parma vs Cagliari Corners Prediction

low confidence
9.7expected total corners
Over 50%
Under 50%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Parma and 5 for Cagliari, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (50%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How Parma and Cagliari Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

Parma vs Cagliari Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

ParmaParmalast 5 matches

No scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.

CagliariCagliarilast 5 matches

No scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.

Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.

Parma vs Cagliari — Last 10 Matches

ParmaParmaLast 10 results
W1-0
W1-0
D1-1
D1-1
L0-2
L1-4
D0-0
D1-1
W1-0
W2-1
Wvs Pisa1-0
W@ Udinese1-0
Dvs Napoli1-1
D@ Lazio1-1
Lvs Cremonese0-2
L@ Torino1-4
D@ Fiorentina0-0
Dvs Cagliari1-1
W@ AC Milan1-0
Wvs Hellas Verona2-1
CagliariCagliariLast 10 results
W3-2
L0-3
W1-0
L1-2
L0-1
L1-3
L1-2
D1-1
D0-0
L0-2
Wvs Atalanta3-2
L@ Inter0-3
Wvs Cremonese1-0
L@ Sassuolo1-2
Lvs Napoli0-1
L@ Pisa1-3
Lvs Como1-2
D@ Parma1-1
Dvs Lazio0-0
Lvs Lecce0-2

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5

What History Says: Parma vs Cagliari

Parma vs Cagliari Head-to-Head History

Last 10 meetings between these sides

1

Parma wins

4

Draws

5

Cagliari wins

10%40% draws50%
27 Feb 26Parma vs Cagliari1-1
13 Sept 25Cagliari vs Parma2-0
9 Feb 25Cagliari vs Parma2-1
30 Sept 24Parma vs Cagliari2-3
3 Jun 23Parma vs Cagliari0-0
30 May 23Cagliari vs Parma3-2

Things to Watch: Parma vs Cagliari

  • ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, xG, etc.) are missing for Cagliari, reducing confidence in attack/defense estimates.
  • ⚠️Bookmaker odds imply much higher probability for 'btts: no' and 'under 2.5' than the model, so value is limited.
  • ⚠️Parma's recent improvement may not be sustainable given weak underlying numbers.
  • ⚠️Both teams are unpredictable and capable of both strong and weak performances.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Parma vs Cagliari: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 22 February 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

More Parma vs Cagliari Resources