Puebla vs FC Juarez Predictions
Liga MX · Mexico
Puebla
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
FC Juarez
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 4(+30% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Puebla Hold On With Ten Men as Juarez Salvage Late Draw in Lively Cuauhtemoc Clash
Puebla and FC Juarez played out a dramatic 1-1 draw at Estadio Cuauhtemoc, with both sides sharing the spoils after a match filled with intensity, tactical shifts, and a late equalizer. Puebla took the lead early in the second half, capitalizing on their attacking momentum, but a red card and mounting pressure from Juarez saw the visitors level the score with just over ten minutes to play. The hosts, set up in a 3-4-2-1, matched Juarez’s possession and threatened frequently, firing 7 shots on target from 11 attempts. However, a sending off and Juarez’s numerical advantage in the final stages allowed the visitors to push forward relentlessly, eventually finding the breakthrough from one of their 16 shots. Both teams had opportunities to snatch a winner, but resolute defending and missed chances ensured the points were shared.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
55' — Goal
Alexis Canelo finishes off a swift Puebla attack to put the hosts 1-0 up.
68' — Red Card
Puebla reduced to ten men after a straight red card, shifting momentum to Juarez.
77' — Goal
Óscar Estupiñán equalizes for Juarez, finishing from close range after sustained pressure.
Puebla
Puebla delivered a spirited display, especially in the first hour, balancing defensive solidity with attacking intent in their 3-4-2-1 setup. They created several clear chances, leading to 7 shots on target and forcing Juarez goalkeeper Sebastián Jurado into action. The hosts' aggression, however, cost them as they racked up 19 fouls and were reduced to ten men, which shifted the momentum decisively. Despite the numerical disadvantage, Puebla fought valiantly to protect their lead, but the relentless Juarez pressure eventually broke through. Their inability to maintain discipline and close out the game ultimately denied them all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
FC Juarez
Juarez started cautiously in their 4-2-3-1 formation, but grew into the contest, especially after Puebla were reduced to ten men. They dominated the shot count with 16 attempts and 9 corners, but lacked clinical edge in front of goal, registering only 3 shots on target. Their patience paid off in the 77th minute, when they finally breached Puebla's defense to equalize. Juarez’s discipline (no cards) and ability to exploit their numerical advantage in the closing stages were commendable, but their profligacy in front of goal prevented them from securing a comeback win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Puebla’s 3-4-2-1 formation allowed them to crowd the midfield and transition quickly into attack, with wing-backs providing width and support. Their compact shape frustrated Juarez for much of the first half and early second, but the red card forced a tactical retreat, with Puebla dropping deeper and ceding possession. Juarez, in a 4-2-3-1, initially struggled to break the lines but found more joy as they pushed their full-backs higher and committed more bodies forward after gaining the numerical advantage. Their increased width and set-piece threat (9 corners) eventually paid off, but their inefficiency in front of goal was a notable limitation.
Turning Point
The red card to Puebla in the 68th minute, which allowed Juarez to dominate possession and eventually find the equalizer.
Man of the Match
Óscar Estupiñán
Scored the vital equalizer and led the Juarez attack with persistence, salvaging a point for his side.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
44%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Puebla vs FC Juarez Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Puebla vs FC Juarez?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Puebla vs FC Juarez(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.1
Both teams have high season over 2.5 rates (Puebla 62%, Juarez 69%), recent H2H meetings are goal-rich, and model probability is much higher than odds imply.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes@ 4
Juarez have BTTS in 5/5, Puebla 3/5, and H2H is BTTS-heavy. Odds are generous compared to model probability.
Match Result: FC Juarez Win@ 1.8
Juarez are in better form, have more attacking output, and have a good away record. Puebla's home record is poor.
More Liga MX Predictions
The Case For This Puebla vs FC Juarez Prediction
This fixture features a struggling Puebla side hosting a Juarez team in solid form. Puebla have only won 4 of 14 at home this season and have defensive vulnerabilities, conceding nearly 2 goals per game. Juarez, meanwhile, are scoring well and have been involved in high-scoring, open matches, with both teams scoring in all of their last five. Recent head-to-heads have also produced plenty of goals, including a 4-4 draw in the last meeting. Expect Juarez to control more of the attacking play, with Puebla dangerous enough to contribute to the scoreline but unlikely to keep a clean sheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Juarez's last 5: WDLWW, averaging 2.0 goals scored per game.
Defence
- →Puebla's home record: 4W 3D 7L, conceding 28 in 14.
- →Juarez's away record: 4W 4D 7L, 19 scored, 27 conceded.
- →Juarez have failed to keep a clean sheet in last 5, but have not failed to score.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported.
Match Context
- →Both teams have high over 2.5 and BTTS rates.
- →Recent H2H: 4-4, 3-2, 4-3 – frequent high scores.
🚩 Puebla vs FC Juarez Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Puebla and 6 for FC Juarez, for an expected total of 12. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (76%). Over 8.5: 84% · Over 10.5: 65%.
How Puebla and FC Juarez Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Puebla vs FC Juarez Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Pueblalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
FC Juarezlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Puebla vs FC Juarez — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.71% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Puebla vs FC Juarez
Puebla vs FC Juarez Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Puebla wins
4
Draws
3
FC Juarez wins
Things to Watch: Puebla vs FC Juarez
- ⚠️Odds for over 2.5 and BTTS are unusually high; market may be pricing in regression.
- ⚠️Puebla's attack is inconsistent and sometimes blunt.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, lineups) are missing for a few recent games.
- ⚠️Small sample size for some averages; form can shift quickly in Liga MX.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Puebla vs FC Juarez: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.