Saint Etienne vs Rodez Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Saint Etienne
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Rodez
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Double Chance: Draw or Rodez
Match Result
6.5/10Saint Etienne Edge Rodez in Dramatic Penalty Shootout After Stalemate
Saint Etienne booked their place in the next round with a nerve-shredding 7-6 penalty shootout victory over Rodez, after 120 minutes of football failed to separate the sides at Stade Geoffroy Guichard. In a tightly contested affair, both teams struggled to break down resolute defences, with the match finishing goalless despite Saint Etienne dominating possession and Rodez threatening on the counter. The hosts controlled much of the game with 62% possession and 8 corners, but their attacking efforts were repeatedly stifled by Rodez's disciplined five-man backline. Both teams managed just two shots on target apiece, highlighting the lack of clear-cut chances. Ultimately, the drama unfolded from the spot, where Saint Etienne held their nerve to prevail 7-6 in a marathon shootout.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
90' — Full Time
Neither side able to break the deadlock after a tense 90 minutes.
120' — End of Extra Time
Still goalless after 120 minutes, the match heads to penalties.
Penalties' — Shootout
Saint Etienne win 7-6 on penalties after a marathon shootout.
Saint Etienne
Saint Etienne dictated the tempo for large spells, enjoying 62% possession and pushing forward with purpose, especially through the wide areas. However, despite their territorial dominance and 11 total shots, they struggled to turn pressure into genuine scoring opportunities, managing just two efforts on target. Their midfield duo of Luan Gadegbeku and Abdoulaye Kanté worked hard to control proceedings, while the back four remained alert to Rodez's sporadic counters. In the shootout, the home side showed composure under immense pressure, converting all but one of their penalties to finally edge past a stubborn Rodez outfit.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Rodez
Rodez set up with a compact 5-3-2 formation, ceding possession but remaining organized and dangerous on the break. They actually outshot their hosts 13 to 11, but like Saint Etienne, could only muster two shots on target. The defensive unit, marshalled by Loni Laurent and Mathis Magnin, put in a tireless shift to keep the home side at bay, while Tairyk Arconte and Ibrahima Baldé offered outlets up front. Despite their resilience and a composed display in the shootout, Rodez ultimately fell just short, missing one crucial spot-kick to exit the competition in heartbreaking fashion.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Saint Etienne lined up in a 4-2-3-1, seeking to control the midfield and exploit width, but found Rodez's deep-lying 5-3-2 difficult to penetrate. The home side's high possession (62%) reflected their territorial dominance, yet their lack of incisiveness in the final third was evident, as they managed just two shots on target from 11 attempts. Rodez, meanwhile, were content to sit deep and spring counters, with their wing-backs dropping into a back five when out of possession. Both teams were well-organized defensively, with few gaps for creative players to exploit. Substitutions and tactical tweaks failed to alter the pattern, as both sides remained cautious, wary of conceding a decisive goal. The match ultimately hinged on set pieces and the lottery of penalties, where Saint Etienne's composure proved decisive.
Turning Point
Gautier Larsonneur's penalty save in the shootout gave Saint Etienne the edge, ultimately deciding the contest.
Man of the Match
Gautier Larsonneur
Kept a clean sheet through 120 minutes and delivered a crucial penalty save to secure victory.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.55
Over 2.5 Goals
55%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Saint Etienne vs Rodez Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Saint Etienne vs Rodez?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Saint Etienne vs Rodez(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–2
Rodez are in strong form (WWWDW), have scored consistently, and recently beat Saint Etienne 2-1. Saint Etienne's home attack is inconsistent and they have several injuries, making a Rodez 2-1 win plausible.
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Double Chance: Draw or Rodez
Rodez are unbeaten in their last 4 and have a strong away record, while Saint Etienne have lost 3 of their last 5 and are missing key players. The draw and away win are both likely outcomes.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have hit over 2.5 goals in most recent matches (Rodez 100% season over 2.5, Saint Etienne averaging 1.6 scored/conceded last 5), and 4 of the last 5 Rodez matches saw both teams score.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Saint Etienne vs Rodez Prediction
Rodez enter this match in excellent form, riding a three-game winning streak and displaying a potent attack, while Saint Etienne have struggled for consistency and are hampered by several injuries. The head-to-head record is balanced, but Rodez's recent win over Saint Etienne and their current momentum give them the edge. Expect an open game with goals on both sides, but Rodez's sharper attack and better recent results make them slight favorites.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Rodez are unbeaten in their last 4 matches (WWWDW), including a recent 2-1 win over Saint Etienne.
- →H2H: 3 Rodez wins, 2 Saint Etienne wins, 4 draws in last 9; recent matches often see both teams score.
Defence
- →Rodez's last 5: 2.0 goals scored per game, 1.2 conceded, with 4/5 BTTS.
- →Saint Etienne's last 5: 1.6 goals scored, 1.6 conceded, only 1 clean sheet.
Injuries & Team News
- →Saint Etienne have lost 3 of their last 5 and are missing several players due to injury.
Match Context
- →Rodez have a 100% over 2.5 goals rate in the season data provided.
🚩 Saint Etienne vs Rodez Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Saint Etienne and 4.8 for Rodez, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How Saint Etienne and Rodez Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Saint Etienne vs Rodez Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Saint Etiennelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Rodezlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Saint Etienne's recent form is patchy, with just 2 wins in their last 5 and 3 defeats, though they did record a big 5-0 win last time out. Rodez, on the other hand, are in excellent shape with 4 wins and a draw in their last 5, including a notable away victory and a direct win over Saint Etienne. Momentum is clearly with Rodez.
Saint Etienne vs Rodez — Last 5 Matches
Strengths
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Saint Etienne vs Rodez
Recent head-to-heads have been closely contested, but Rodez have edged the last meeting and have a slight upper hand overall. Both teams have managed wins in this fixture, and draws are also common, suggesting a competitive match-up.
Saint Etienne vs Rodez Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Saint Etienne wins
5
Draws
3
Rodez wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Saint Etienne vs Rodez
With no bookmaker odds available, it's not possible to calculate explicit value edges. However, the model suggests Rodez are undervalued by typical market expectations given their form and Saint Etienne's injury issues, so X2 and over 2.5 goals would likely offer value if odds are fair.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Saint Etienne vs Rodez
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some match stats and lineups are missing for recent fixtures.
- ⚠️Both teams have incomplete season data due to recent promotion/relegation.
- ⚠️Saint Etienne have a lengthy injury list, but exact impact is uncertain without confirmed lineups.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Saint Etienne vs Rodez: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.