SJK vs Turku PS Predictions
Veikkausliiga · Finland
SJK
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Turku PS
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.9(+10% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Clinical SJK Punish Wasteful TPS in 3-1 Veikkausliiga Triumph
SJK delivered a ruthless display of finishing to dispatch Turku PS 3-1 at OmaSp Stadion, despite seeing less of the ball and registering fewer attempts on goal. The hosts struck first just before half-time, setting the tone for a match in which they capitalized on their chances, while TPS struggled to turn possession into meaningful threat. Turku PS briefly threatened a comeback early in the second half, but SJK responded emphatically, pulling away with two further goals to seal the points. TPS enjoyed the lion's share of possession (54%) and outshot their hosts 11-10, but managed just a single shot on target. In contrast, SJK were clinical, converting three of their three shots on target into goals. The home side also had to weather some disciplinary issues, collecting three yellow cards, but their defensive resilience and sharp attacking transitions ultimately proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
43' — Goal
SJK take the lead just before half-time, shifting momentum their way.
51' — Goal
TPS equalize early in the second half, briefly putting the hosts under pressure.
67' — Goal
SJK restore their lead, capitalizing on a defensive lapse from TPS.
79' — Goal
SJK seal the win with a third goal, ending TPS's hopes of a comeback.
Multiple' — Yellow cards
SJK pick up three yellow cards, reflecting their combative approach.
SJK
SJK made the most of their opportunities, showing impressive efficiency in front of goal. Despite having only 46% possession and being outshot, they struck at key moments—just before the break, then twice in the second half to kill off the contest. Their defensive organization limited TPS to just one shot on target, and while SJK picked up three yellow cards, their discipline in open play and ability to exploit space on the counter made the difference.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Turku PS
Turku PS controlled possession and looked the more proactive side for stretches, but their inability to create clear-cut chances proved costly. Despite 54% possession and 11 shots, they managed just one on target—a statistic that underlines their lack of penetration. Their equalizer early in the second half briefly gave them hope, but defensive lapses and a lack of cutting edge in attack left them chasing the game.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
While lineups and formations were not provided, the match statistics suggest SJK set up to absorb pressure and strike on the break, conceding possession but defending resolutely. Their ability to transition quickly and finish clinically was the key tactical difference. TPS, meanwhile, sought to control the game with more possession and passing, but their lack of penetration in the final third and vulnerability to SJK's counter-attacks proved costly. Both sides matched each other on corners, indicating parity on set pieces, but SJK's sharper edge in open play made the difference.
Turning Point
SJK's second goal in the 67th minute, coming shortly after TPS had equalized, decisively swung momentum back to the hosts.
Man of the Match
SJK Second Goalscorer (67')
Scored the crucial goal to restore SJK's lead and set the tone for the final stages.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
SJK vs Turku PS Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: SJK vs Turku PS?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: SJK vs Turku PS(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.9
Model probability for the draw (36%) is notably higher than the implied probability from the odds (25.6%), and both teams have a high draw rate recently and in H2H.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.2
Model sees a slight lean to under 2.5 goals (52%), and Turku PS away games are low scoring, with SJK struggling for goals at home.
More Veikkausliiga Predictions
The Case For This SJK vs Turku PS Prediction
This fixture features two sides with contrasting home and away strengths: SJK have struggled at home, while Turku PS have yet to win away this season. Both teams are defensively vulnerable but have shown improvement in recent matches, with SJK drawing their last two and Turku PS coming off a morale-boosting win. The head-to-head history is close, but recent trends and current form suggest a tightly contested encounter with limited scoring chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Both teams average just over 1 goal scored per game this season.
Defence
- →Turku PS have not won away but have the league's 7th best defensive record.
- →SJK have seen BTTS in all of their last 5, but Turku PS have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5.
Match Context
- →SJK have drawn their last two league matches and have only one home win all season.
- →Head-to-head is historically close, with SJK slightly ahead at home.
🚩 SJK vs Turku PS Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for SJK and 3.8 for Turku PS, for an expected total of 7.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (74%). Over 8.5: 38% · Over 10.5: 17%.
How SJK and Turku PS Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SJK vs Turku PS Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
SJKlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Turku PSlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SJK come into this match on a two-game unbeaten run, drawing both, but have only one win in their last five. Their defence has leaked goals, but their attack has found some late form. Turku PS, meanwhile, snapped a poor run with a 3-2 win last time out and have been more consistent overall, though their away form remains a concern with no wins on the road.
SJK vs Turku PS — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: SJK vs Turku PS
Historically, SJK have had the upper hand at home against Turku PS, but recent meetings have been more balanced, including a 1-1 draw and a 2-0 win for Turku PS earlier this season. Matches between these sides often feature few goals and are closely contested.
SJK vs Turku PS Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
SJK wins
2
Draws
2
Turku PS wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SJK vs Turku PS
The model identifies the draw and under 2.5 goals as value bets, with both showing a double-digit edge over bookmaker odds. This is supported by both teams' recent low-scoring games and SJK's high draw rate. BTTS 'no' is also marginal value, but less pronounced.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: SJK vs Turku PS
- ⚠️Limited shot and advanced stat data for both teams reduces confidence in attack/defence projections.
- ⚠️SJK's home attack and Turku PS's away defence are both inconsistent.
- ⚠️Recent draws for SJK may be influenced by late goals, which could skew expected goal timing.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lineups are unknown at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SJK vs Turku PS: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.