SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Predictions
3. Liga · Germany
SSV Ulm 1846
Full Time
2 - 3
AI predicted 1 - 3
Rot-Weiß Essen
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 4(+38% edge)
Match Result
8/10Late Drama as Rot-Weiß Essen Edge SSV Ulm 1846 in Five-Goal Thriller
Rot-Weiß Essen snatched a dramatic 3-2 victory over SSV Ulm 1846 at the Donaustadion, with a last-gasp winner capping off a pulsating encounter. The visitors struck first, finding the net inside two minutes, but Ulm responded with two goals in quick succession to turn the game on its head before halftime. Essen, however, restored parity just before the break and, after a tense second half marked by heavy discipline and a red card for Ulm, clinched all three points with a decisive goal in the dying moments. Both sides traded blows in a match full of momentum swings and emotional highs. Ulm’s aggressive approach saw them pick up four yellow cards and a red, while Essen kept their composure to capitalize late. The result leaves Ulm ruing missed opportunities and disciplinary lapses, while Essen celebrate a hard-earned away win.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 3
Actual
2 - 3
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
2' — Goal
Jaka Cuber Potocnik gives Rot-Weiß Essen an early lead with a clinical finish.
28' — Goal
Lucas Röser equalizes for Ulm, capping a sustained spell of pressure.
35' — Goal
Ulm take the lead with a second goal, turning the match on its head.
40' — Goal
Essen level the score just before halftime, shifting momentum.
Red Card' — Card
Ulm reduced to ten men after a second-half sending off, changing the tactical landscape.
90' — Goal
Essen snatch victory with a dramatic late winner.
SSV Ulm 1846
SSV Ulm 1846 showed resilience after conceding early, turning the match around with two quick goals in the first half. Their 5-2-3 formation provided defensive solidity initially, but lapses in concentration and discipline proved costly. Four yellow cards and a red undermined their efforts, particularly as they were forced to play a man down late on, which ultimately opened the door for Essen’s late winner. Despite flashes of attacking promise and a spirited response to adversity, Ulm struggled to maintain control, particularly after their numerical disadvantage. Their inability to see out the draw or reclaim the lead was a reflection of both tactical inflexibility and mounting pressure from the visitors.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Rot-Weiß Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen started brightly, capitalizing on early momentum with a goal inside two minutes. Their 3-4-2-1 setup allowed for fluid transitions and width, which they exploited to stretch Ulm’s back five. After conceding twice in quick succession, Essen showed character to level before halftime and maintained composure under pressure, especially as Ulm’s discipline faltered. Essen’s late push, aided by their numerical advantage, paid dividends with a dramatic 90th-minute winner. Their ability to stay organized and seize their chances, particularly in high-pressure moments, was the difference on the day.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ulm’s 5-2-3 formation emphasized defensive solidity and wing play, but left them occasionally exposed in central areas, especially when Essen overloaded the midfield. Their shape allowed for quick transitions, which paid off with two first-half goals, but their narrow midfield struggled to cope once reduced to ten men. The red card forced Ulm into a more reactive posture, ceding possession and territory late on. Essen’s 3-4-2-1 offered flexibility, with wingbacks pushing high and attacking midfielders drifting into pockets of space. This stretched Ulm’s back line and created overloads, particularly as the match wore on. Essen’s patience and width ultimately broke Ulm’s resistance, especially after the hosts’ dismissal.
Turning Point
The red card for Ulm in the second half, which shifted momentum decisively in Essen’s favor and paved the way for the late winner.
Man of the Match
Jaka Cuber Potocnik
Scored the crucial early goal and remained a persistent attacking threat throughout, setting the tone for Essen’s victory.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 2.30
Over 2.5 Goals
63%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 1-2 · 0-1
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SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen?
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Where the Model Sees Value: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4
Both teams have high over 2.5 rates (Ulm 64.86%, Essen 67.57%), recent matches see frequent BTTS and high scores, and model assigns 63% probability versus 25% implied.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Rot-Weiß Essen Win@ 1.44
Essen are clear favorites based on league position, form, and Ulm's defensive frailty, but odds are short and value is limited.
More 3. Liga Predictions
The Case For This SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Prediction
Rot-Weiß Essen travel to SSV Ulm 1846 as strong favorites, with a significant gap in league position and overall quality. Ulm, struggling defensively and fighting relegation, have conceded heavily all season, while Essen's attack is among the league's best. Both sides have a strong trend toward high-scoring games, and recent H2H meetings have seen plenty of goals. Expect Essen to control the match and create more chances, but Ulm's motivation and home crowd could see them get on the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Essen's away attack (2.0+ goals/game) vs Ulm's weak home defense (1.89 conceded/game).
- →Ulm's recent form: DLLWL, conceding 12 in last 5.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Essen's over 2.5 rate (67.57%) and Ulm's (64.86%) both support high goal expectation.
- →Both teams have 4/5 BTTS in recent matches.
- →Essen have more to play for (promotion race), Ulm are fighting relegation.
How SSV Ulm 1846 and Rot-Weiß Essen Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
SSV Ulm 1846last 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Rot-Weiß Essenlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
- +Over 2.5 goals in 65.79% of games this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 68.42% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
What History Says: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen Head-to-Head History
Last 4 meetings between these sides
2
SSV Ulm 1846 wins
0
Draws
2
Rot-Weiß Essen wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, corners) missing for recent games.
- ⚠️Lineups not available at time of prediction.
- ⚠️Essen's away defense has been leaky (42 conceded in 18 away games).
- ⚠️Final round of season: motivation and rotation risks possible.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Rot-Weiß Essen: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.