St. Truiden vs Gent Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
St. Truiden
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Gent
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.38(+36% edge)
Match Result
6.7/10St. Truiden and Gent Share Spoils in Possession-Dominated Draw
St. Truiden and Gent played out a 1-1 draw at Stayen in a contest defined by the hosts’ dominance of possession but a lack of clinical finishing from both sides. Gent struck first just before the break, but St. Truiden responded in the second half, setting up a tense finale that ultimately saw the points shared. St. Truiden controlled the tempo with 64% possession and fired 16 shots, but only four tested Gent keeper Davy Roef. Gent, meanwhile, were efficient on the counter, scoring with their sole shot on target, and defended resolutely under increasing pressure after halftime. Despite late pushes from both teams, neither could find a decisive winner.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
45' — Goal
Wilfried Kanga put Gent ahead with their only shot on target of the half.
69' — Goal
Ryotaro Ito equalized for St. Truiden, finishing off a sustained spell of pressure.
77' — Yellow Card
Gent picked up the game’s only booking, reflecting their defensive intensity.
St. Truiden
St. Truiden dictated the rhythm for much of the match, boasting 64% possession and creating more chances with 16 shots. However, their inability to convert dominance into goals was evident, as only four of their efforts troubled the Gent goalkeeper. After conceding on the stroke of halftime, they rallied well, equalizing in the 69th minute and pushing for a winner, but lacked the cutting edge in the final third.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Gent
Gent were content to cede possession, focusing on defensive organization and quick counters. They made their limited attacking opportunities count, scoring with their only shot on target just before halftime. Despite being under heavy pressure after the break, Gent’s backline held firm, and Davy Roef made key interventions to preserve the draw. Discipline was mostly maintained, with only one yellow card shown.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up with compact midfields, but St. Truiden’s approach was proactive, seeking to control possession and build patiently through the thirds. Their midfield trio, anchored by Rihito Yamamoto, recycled the ball well, but Gent’s disciplined back four and deep-lying midfielders limited clear-cut opportunities. Gent’s tactical plan revolved around soaking up pressure and springing forward quickly, a strategy that paid off with their opening goal. Substitutions were used to inject fresh legs into midfield and attack, but neither side altered their basic shape significantly, resulting in a tactical stalemate after St. Truiden’s equalizer.
Turning Point
Ryotaro Ito’s 69th-minute equalizer shifted momentum firmly to St. Truiden, but Gent’s defense held out under late pressure.
Man of the Match
Ryotaro Ito
Scored the vital equalizer and was a constant creative presence in St. Truiden’s midfield.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 0.55
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
St. Truiden vs Gent Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: St. Truiden vs Gent?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: St. Truiden vs Gent(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.38
Gent have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches and failed to score in 4 of them, while St. Truiden have kept 2 clean sheets in that span. The model gives a high probability for BTTS 'no' and the odds offer significant value.
Read more ↓
Match Result: St. Truiden Win@ 1.4
St. Truiden's home form is strong (12W/1D/5L), Gent are struggling away and in poor recent form. However, the odds are short and the edge is negative, so keep the stake low.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.13
Both teams have seen low-scoring games recently, especially Gent (last 5: 0.2 scored/game, 0.8 conceded/game). The model expects a low-scoring match, but the odds are very short.
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More Jupiler Pro League Predictions
The Case For This St. Truiden vs Gent Prediction
St. Truiden come into this fixture with strong momentum, boasting a solid home record and a recent run of wins against top opposition. Gent, by contrast, are struggling badly in attack and have failed to score in four of their last five games. With St. Truiden's defense tightening up and Gent offering little threat, this match is likely to be cagey and low-scoring, with the home side favored to edge it.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →St. Truiden's home form (12 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses)
Attack
- →Gent's attacking struggles: 1 goal in last 5 matches, 4 games without scoring
- →Recent H2H: last meeting finished 0-0, but St. Truiden won 3-1 at home this season
Defence
- →St. Truiden average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded in last 5; Gent average 0.2 scored
- →Both teams' clean sheet rate is 24%, but Gent's away defense is weak (30 conceded in 18 away games)
🚩 St. Truiden vs Gent Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for St. Truiden and 5 for Gent, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 60% · Over 10.5: 34%.
How St. Truiden and Gent Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
St. Truiden vs Gent Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
St. Truidenlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Gentlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
St. Truiden are in strong form, winning three of their last five, including impressive victories over Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht. Their only recent loss came away to Club Brugge. Gent, on the other hand, are winless in their last five, drawing three and losing two, and have managed just one goal in that span, signaling major attacking issues.
St. Truiden vs Gent — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
What History Says: St. Truiden vs Gent
The last 10 meetings are fairly balanced, but St. Truiden have the edge at home, winning the last two home fixtures against Gent. Matches are often low-scoring, with three of the last five featuring two or fewer goals, and the most recent encounter ended goalless.
St. Truiden vs Gent Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
St. Truiden wins
3
Draws
4
Gent wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: St. Truiden vs Gent
The clearest value lies in 'BTTS no', where the model gives a much higher probability than the odds imply, reflecting Gent's scoring woes. The under 2.5 goals market is also likely but is priced very short, offering little value. St. Truiden to win is probable but the odds are not generous, so the best value is in opposing goals for Gent.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: St. Truiden vs Gent
- ⚠️Gent's underlying season attack is better than recent form, so a bounce-back is possible
- ⚠️Some missing match stats for Gent's last 5 games reduces confidence in shot/corner projections
- ⚠️Odds for low-scoring outcomes are very short, limiting value
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups not confirmed
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for St. Truiden vs Gent: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.