Standard Liege vs Charleroi Predictions
Jupiler Pro League · Belgium
Standard Liege
Full Time
0 - 2
AI predicted 1 - 1
Charleroi
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+9% edge)
Match Result
7/10Charleroi Strike Late to Sink Standard Liege in Feisty Clash
Charleroi emerged victorious at Maurice Dufrasne, defeating Standard Liege 2-0 in a tense encounter that saw both teams battle fiercely for control. Despite Standard's defensive setup and home advantage, Charleroi's superior possession and attacking intent eventually paid dividends with two late goals, sealing the win. The match was marked by physicality, with eight yellow cards and a red for Charleroi, underscoring the intensity on display. Standard Liege, lining up in a defensive 5-4-1, absorbed pressure for much of the match but struggled to create clear chances, registering just 3 shots on target from 7 attempts. Charleroi, meanwhile, dominated possession (57%) and peppered the home goal with 13 shots, finally breaking the deadlock in the 75th minute and doubling their lead ten minutes later. Even a late red card couldn't derail their momentum as they secured all three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
0 - 2
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
75' — Goal
A. Scheidler opens the scoring for Charleroi after sustained pressure.
86' — Goal
Charleroi double their lead, capitalizing on a stretched Standard defense.
89' — Red Card
Charleroi reduced to 10 men after a late sending off, but the result is already secured.
Standard Liege
Standard Liege set up with a compact 5-4-1 formation, prioritizing defensive solidity but ultimately offering little threat going forward. The hosts were content to concede possession, focusing on organization and discipline, but struggled to transition into attack and failed to capitalize on their six corners. Their resistance finally broke in the final quarter, as fatigue and sustained pressure told. Despite a committed defensive effort and some promising moments from wide areas, Standard's inability to create high-quality chances or sustain attacks proved costly. The side also picked up three yellow cards as they tried to disrupt Charleroi's rhythm, but lacked the attacking spark to trouble the visitors.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Charleroi
Charleroi's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield and dictate play, reflected in their 57% possession and 13 shots. Patient in their buildup, they probed for openings and stretched the Standard backline, eventually finding success with two well-taken goals in the final 15 minutes. Their attacking midfielders and full-backs provided width and penetration, overwhelming the hosts late on. Despite a flurry of cards—including a late red—Charleroi maintained their composure and attacking impetus. Their ability to break down a stubborn Standard defense and manage the game after going ahead was impressive, and their late goals were just reward for their dominance.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Standard Liege's 5-4-1 formation signaled a clear intent to defend deep and frustrate Charleroi, relying on numbers behind the ball and quick transitions. While this approach kept them in the contest for over an hour, it left their lone striker isolated and limited their attacking options. Their six corners hinted at set-piece potential, but execution was lacking. Charleroi's 4-2-3-1 provided numerical superiority in midfield and allowed for fluid movement between the lines. Their full-backs pushed high, stretching Standard's back five and creating overloads in wide areas. Patient possession and quick ball circulation eventually wore down the hosts, and tactical substitutions late on helped maintain their attacking impetus even after the red card.
Turning Point
Scheidler's goal in the 75th minute broke Standard's resistance and shifted momentum decisively in Charleroi's favor.
Man of the Match
A. Scheidler
Scored the breakthrough goal and led the line with energy, setting the tone for Charleroi's late surge.
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
24%
BTTS: Yes
32%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Standard Liege vs Charleroi Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Standard Liege vs Charleroi?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Standard Liege vs Charleroi(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
The model sees a tightly matched contest with both teams defensively solid in recent games and a high draw probability. The odds on the draw offer a significant value edge over the implied probability.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.18
Both teams have strong under 2.5 goal trends and low recent scoring averages, but the odds on under 2.5 are too short for strong value.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 4.5
While the model leans under, the high odds on over 2.5 goals offer slight value for small stakes in case of a rare open game.
More Jupiler Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Standard Liege vs Charleroi Prediction
Standard Liege and Charleroi approach this fixture in solid form, both showing defensive resilience and relatively low-scoring matches. Standard Liege's home record is inconsistent, while Charleroi's away form is similarly patchy. Recent head-to-heads have often been tight, and both teams' season-long data point to a cautious, low-scoring encounter with a high likelihood of a draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Standard Liege's home form (5W 7D 7L) is not dominant; Charleroi's away form (7W 3D 9L) is mixed.
- →Last 5 matches: Standard Liege (WDWWD), Charleroi (DLWWW) – both in decent form.
- →Recent H2H: 3 draws in last 10, most matches tight and under 2.5 goals.
Attack
- →Both teams have averaged just over 1 goal scored per game this season.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either team.
Match Context
- →Low BTTS and over 2.5 goal rates for both sides in recent matches.
🚩 Standard Liege vs Charleroi Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Standard Liege and 5 for Charleroi, for an expected total of 9.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 64% · Over 10.5: 39%.
How Standard Liege and Charleroi Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Standard Liege vs Charleroi Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Standard Liegelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Charleroilast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Standard Liege are unbeaten in their last 5 (WDWWD), including a dominant 5-0 away win and two solid home performances. Charleroi have also been strong recently (DLWWW), with three wins and a draw in their last four, conceding just twice in five matches. Both teams have shown defensive improvement and resilience heading into this match.
Standard Liege vs Charleroi — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
No recent results available
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.0 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.0 goals/game
What History Says: Standard Liege vs Charleroi
Head-to-head clashes between these sides are typically close, with draws and narrow wins common. Standard Liege have a slight edge at home, but Charleroi have taken points in Liege before, and three of the last five meetings have seen both teams score. High-scoring games are rare in this fixture.
Standard Liege vs Charleroi Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Standard Liege wins
3
Draws
4
Charleroi wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Standard Liege vs Charleroi
The biggest value edge is on the draw, with the model probability well above the bookmaker's implied odds. The under 2.5 goals market is heavily favored by both teams' trends, but the odds are too short for meaningful value. Over 2.5 is a long shot but offers slight value for speculative punters due to the high payout relative to the model's probability.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Standard Liege vs Charleroi
- ⚠️Some missing match stats (e.g., shots, possession) for certain recent fixtures.
- ⚠️Lineups not confirmed for this match; late changes could impact tactical setup.
- ⚠️Model confidence is moderate due to low-scoring variance and draw likelihood.
- ⚠️API prediction strongly favors Charleroi/draw, but model sees more balance.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Standard Liege vs Charleroi: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.