Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Sturm Graz
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
Austria Vienna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win
Match Result
7/10Late Drama as Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna Share the Spoils in Graz
Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna played out a tense 1-1 draw at the Merkur-Arena, with both sides leaving it late to make their mark on the scoresheet. Despite dominating possession with 61% and firing 15 shots (5 on target), Sturm Graz found themselves trailing after Kelvin Boateng put the visitors ahead in the 54th minute. The hosts, however, showed resilience and finally broke through Austria Vienna's defensive lines with an 85th-minute equalizer. The match was a physical contest, with both sides picking up two yellow cards each and committing a combined 29 fouls. Austria Vienna, despite having just 39% of the ball and only 7 shots (3 on target), were clinical when their chance arrived but ultimately could not withstand the late Sturm Graz onslaught. The draw leaves both teams reflecting on missed opportunities but also on the grit shown in a hard-fought Bundesliga encounter.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
54' — Goal
Kelvin Boateng finishes a swift counter-attack to give Austria Vienna the lead.
67' — Yellow Card
Jon Stankovic (Sturm Graz) booked for a tactical foul in midfield.
72' — Yellow Card
Aleksandar Dragović (Austria Vienna) cautioned for time-wasting.
85' — Goal
Sturm Graz finally break through with a late equalizer after sustained pressure.
Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz controlled the tempo for much of the match, enjoying the lion's share of possession and consistently probing Austria Vienna's defense. Their 15 total shots and 5 on target demonstrated attacking intent, but a lack of clinical finishing kept them chasing the game until the final minutes. The hosts' persistence paid off with a late equalizer, salvaging a point from a match they largely dictated. Defensively, Sturm Graz held firm for most of the contest but were caught out by Austria Vienna's directness early in the second half. Their midfield, marshaled by Jon Stankovic, dictated play but struggled to convert dominance into clear-cut chances until late on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna approached the match with a compact 3-4-2-1 formation, absorbing pressure and looking to strike on the break. Despite limited possession (39%), they made their moments count, with Kelvin Boateng's 54th-minute goal a testament to their efficiency. The visitors defended resolutely for long stretches but ultimately succumbed to Sturm Graz's relentless late pressure. Their physical approach, evidenced by 17 fouls and two yellow cards, disrupted Sturm Graz's rhythm but also invited pressure. Austria Vienna's defensive trio, led by Aleksandar Dragović, held firm until the closing stages, when their resistance was finally breached.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Sturm Graz lined up in a 3-1-4-2, seeking to overload the midfield and dictate play with numbers centrally. Their shape allowed them to dominate possession and push Austria Vienna deep, but their final ball often lacked precision. The wing-backs, Emir Karić and Gizo Mamageishvili, provided width but were met with stout defending from Austria Vienna's back three. Austria Vienna's 3-4-2-1 focused on defensive solidity and quick transitions. Their midfield duo worked tirelessly to shield the defense, while the front three, led by Boateng, looked to exploit spaces left by Sturm Graz's advanced full-backs. Substitutions in the second half injected fresh legs but did not significantly alter the tactical balance, as both sides stuck to their initial plans.
Turning Point
Sturm Graz's 85th-minute equalizer, which rewarded their relentless pressure and denied Austria Vienna a hard-fought away win.
Man of the Match
Kelvin Boateng
Scored a well-taken goal and remained Austria Vienna's most dangerous outlet throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
53%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Sturm Graz Win
Sturm Graz are in better recent form (DWDWW), have a strong defensive record (0.6 goals conceded per last 5), and are league leaders. Austria Vienna have lost 2 of their last 3 away and conceded 2+ in 3 of last 5. H2H slightly favors Austria Vienna, but recent momentum and home advantage point to Graz.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have shown attacking intent recently (Sturm Graz 2.0, Austria Vienna 1.4 goals per last 5), and Austria Vienna's matches have a high over 2.5 rate (61.54%). Recent H2H also saw 7 goals in last meeting.
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BTTS: Yes
Austria Vienna have scored in all of their last 5, and Sturm Graz have only failed to score once in last 5. H2H has seen BTTS in 4 of last 6 meetings.
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More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Prediction
Sturm Graz enter this match in strong form, unbeaten in their last five and boasting the league's best defense recently. Austria Vienna remain dangerous, especially away, but their defense has been leaky (2.0 conceded per last 5). Sturm Graz's home record is only average, but their recent momentum and attacking improvement make them favorites. Expect a competitive match with both teams likely to score, but the edge goes to the hosts.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent H2H: Austria Vienna often strong, but Graz won 5-2 away last time
Defence
- →Sturm Graz: DWDWW form, 3 clean sheets in last 5, best defense in league
- →Austria Vienna: DLWLW form, scoring in every recent match but conceding heavily
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries for either side
Match Context
- →Sturm Graz home: 5W 3D 5L, Austria Vienna away: 7W 1D 5L (high variance)
🚩 Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Sturm Graz and 3.5 for Austria Vienna, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Austria Viennalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Sturm Graz wins
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be computed
- ⚠️Some match stats missing (shots, possession) for several recent games
- ⚠️Sturm Graz home form less dominant than away
- ⚠️Austria Vienna's H2H record away to Graz is strong historically
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.