Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Toulouse
AI Predicted Score
3 - 1
Estac Troyes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.62(+10% edge)
Recommended Bets: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: Match Preview
Toulouse arrive at Stadium Municipal riding a wave of momentum, unbeaten in their last four Ligue 1 fixtures and coming off a commanding 3-0 win at Le Mans. Their attack is in full flow, averaging 2.4 goals per game over the last five and finding the net in every league match since mid-September. Troyes, meanwhile, are mired in a crisis: four consecutive league defeats, a solitary win all season, and a defence that has shipped 13 goals in just six games. With Toulouse sitting comfortably in mid-table and Troyes hovering just above the bottom, the stakes are clear for both sides.
The tactical contrast is stark. Toulouse's recent surge is powered by relentless second-half pressure, with 10 of their last 12 goals coming after the break. Troyes, on the other hand, have failed to score in three of their last five and are conceding 2.8 per match in that stretch. While Troyes do rack up corners (6.6 per game), their lack of cutting edge is evident, and their discipline has wavered with 1.4 yellows per match. Toulouse's home record is not flawless, but their attacking output and Troyes' defensive frailties suggest the hosts will dictate the tempo.
The model expects Toulouse to exploit Troyes' vulnerabilities, especially as the match wears on. With momentum firmly on their side and a history of strong second halves, Toulouse are well placed to break down a Troyes side that has shown little ability to stem the tide. Unless Troyes can radically improve their defensive organisation or finally turn set pieces into goals, Toulouse's form should prove decisive.
How Toulouse and Estac Troyes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Toulouselast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Estac Troyeslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Toulouse are surging, unbeaten in four Ligue 1 matches and fresh from a 3-0 win at Le Mans, with their attack firing and no recent failures to score. Troyes, meanwhile, have lost four straight league games, scoring just twice in that span and conceding heavily. The momentum is firmly with the hosts, who look a level above their visitors on current form.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 71.43% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Toulouse vs Estac Troyes that most previews miss.
- 1Toulouse have scored 10 of their last 12 goals in the second half, highlighting a late-game surge.
- 2Troyes have failed to score in three of their last five matches, and have not kept a clean sheet in any of those games.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have been won by Toulouse, with Troyes winless over that span.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 2.35
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 2-0 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
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The Case For This Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Prediction
Toulouse enter this fixture on a surge, unbeaten in their last four Ligue 1 outings and fresh off a 3-0 win away at Le Mans. Their attack has found another gear, netting 12 times in their last five matches, with Casper Tengstedt scoring in four of those games. Troyes, by contrast, are in freefall: four consecutive league defeats, just four goals scored all season, and a defence leaking nearly three per match over their last five. The statistical matchup is lopsided. Toulouse average 2.4 goals and 9.6 shots per game over their recent run, while Troyes have failed to score in three of their last five and are conceding 2.8 per game. Notably, Toulouse's second-half output is immense, with 10 of their last 12 goals coming after the interval. Troyes' discipline is also a concern, with 1.4 yellows per game and frequent fouls, while their set-piece threat (6.6 corners per game) rarely translates into goals. Given these trajectories, the model expects Toulouse to take control, especially after half-time. Their recent habit of surging late against tiring defences should see them break down a Troyes side that has shown little resilience. The most plausible risk is Toulouse's occasional defensive lapses, but with Troyes' attack so blunt, the hosts' momentum should carry them to a comfortable win.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Toulouse are unbeaten in four Ligue 1 matches, scoring 10 second-half goals in their last five.
Defence
- →Troyes have lost four straight league games, conceding 2.8 goals per match in that run.
Match Context
- →Toulouse have won six of the last ten H2H meetings, with Troyes winless in that period.
Where the Model Sees Value: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Toulouse Win@ 1.7
Toulouse have taken 8 points from their last 4 Ligue 1 matches and are averaging 2.4 goals per game in that stretch, while Troyes have lost four straight league fixtures and conceded 2.8 per match over their last five. The home side's momentum and Troyes' defensive collapse create a clear edge.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.64
71% of Toulouse's league matches have gone over 2.5 goals, and their last five have averaged 4.2 total goals. Troyes have conceded 13 in six league games, with both teams' recent form pointing strongly to another high-scoring contest.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
🚩 Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.3 corners for Toulouse and 6.2 for Estac Troyes, for an expected total of 10.5. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (60%). Over 8.5: 72% · Over 10.5: 48%.
What History Says: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Toulouse have dominated this fixture, winning six of the last ten meetings and drawing the other four, with Troyes failing to register a single victory. Recent clashes at Stadium Municipal have seen Toulouse score freely, including a 4-1 home win in 2023. The historical trend strongly favours the hosts.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Toulouse wins
4
Draws
0
Estac Troyes wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
There is a clear value edge on both Toulouse to win (model probability 63% vs odds-implied 59%) and over 2.5 goals (68% vs 62%). The combination of Toulouse's attacking momentum and Troyes' defensive woes makes these markets particularly attractive, with the model finding double-digit expected value on the over 2.5 line.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
- ⚠️Toulouse's home league record (1W, 2L) is less impressive than their away form.
- ⚠️Toulouse have conceded in four of their last five, so a Troyes goal cannot be ruled out.
- ⚠️If Troyes convert their high corner count into actual chances, they could threaten on set pieces.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Toulouse 3–1 Estac TroyesThe model calls for a 3-1 Toulouse win, driven by their explosive second-half form—10 goals after the break in their last five matches. The strongest data point is Troyes' ongoing defensive collapse, conceding 2.8 per game recently. The main risk is Toulouse's tendency to concede themselves, especially at home, but Troyes' blunt attack makes a major upset unlikely.
Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: Common Questions
Who will win Toulouse vs Estac Troyes?
Toulouse are strong favourites with a 63% win probability, reflecting their unbeaten four-game run and Troyes' four straight losses. The model predicts a 3-1 home victory, with the visitors' defensive struggles tipping the balance.
Will Toulouse's strong form continue against Troyes?
All signs point to Toulouse extending their run: they've averaged 2.4 goals per game in their last five and have not failed to score since mid-September, while Troyes have conceded 13 in six league matches and are winless in their last four.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Toulouse vs Troyes?
The model gives a 68% probability to over 2.5 goals, well above the implied odds (1.62, or 62%). Toulouse's matches have seen 4.2 goals on average in their last five, and Troyes' leaky defence suggests another high-scoring affair is likely.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Toulouse vs Estac Troyes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.