AC Oulu vs VPS Predictions

AC Oulu PredictionsVPS PredictionsVeikkausliigaH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Finland
high confidence
AC Oulu

AC Oulu

AI Predicted Score

1 - 0

VPS

VPS

🗓️ Wednesday, 28 Oct 2026 at 18:00 EET (venue time) · 16:00 UTC (your time)📍 OTC Stadion, Oulu

Win Probability (1X2)

AC Oulu 41%Draw 34%VPS 25%

Best Value Pick

Match Result: AC Oulu Win

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: AC Oulu vs VPS

Match Result: AC Oulu Win
7/10
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
7/10

AC Oulu vs VPS: Match Preview

AC Oulu and VPS enter this clash separated by just a point in the table (40 vs 39), both sitting mid-table with negative goal differences and little to choose between their season records. Oulu arrive with two wins from their last three, including a gritty 2-1 away win at Inter Turku, while VPS have lost four of their last five and are on a three-match away losing streak without scoring. Both sides' recent home and away splits highlight their inconsistency—Oulu have lost their last three at home, but VPS have taken just four points from their last six away trips.

The underlying rates point to a low-scoring contest. Oulu average 1.14 scored and 1.21 conceded per game, while VPS's away output is just 0.79 scored and 1.43 conceded. VPS's attack has dried up, with only one goal in their last five matches and none in their last three away. Oulu's attack is modest but functional, and their defensive numbers at home are solid. Both teams' matches have gone under 2.5 goals in over 60% of cases, and VPS have not seen both teams score in any of their last five.

Model projections favour a narrow Oulu win, with the most likely scoreline 1-0. The distribution of shots and possession suggests a cautious first half, with the first goal unlikely before the 30th minute. If VPS's attack continues to misfire, Oulu's edge in home output and recent H2H record should be decisive, but a single defensive lapse could swing the outcome in this finely balanced fixture.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

AC Oulu1.15

Expected goals · model says 1.15

VPS0.85

Expected goals · model says 0.85

Win Probability
AC Oulu 43% Draw 30% VPS 27%

Over 2.5 Goals

32%

BTTS: Yes

39%

Likely Scores

1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

AC Oulu vs VPS Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
41%
34%
25%
AC Oulu 41%Draw 34%VPS 25%
Both Teams to Score
32%
68%
Yes 32%No 68%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
34%
66%
Over 2.5 34%Under 2.5 66%
Corners (Over/Under 9.5)
43%
57%
Over 9.5 43%Under 9.5 57%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind AC Oulu vs VPS that most previews miss.

  • 1VPS have not scored in any of their last three away matches, conceding nine goals in that span.
  • 2Under 2.5 goals has landed in 60.7% of these teams' combined league games this season.
  • 3The last three league meetings between these sides in Oulu have all been won by AC Oulu, each with a clean sheet.

Who do you think wins: AC Oulu vs VPS?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

More Veikkausliiga Predictions

29-Oct-2026KuPS vs GnistanView prediction →29-Oct-2026Inter Turku vs HJK HelsinkiView prediction →25-Oct-2026FF Jaro vs PK-35View prediction →25-Oct-2026HJK Helsinki vs KuPSView prediction →24-Oct-2026Gnistan vs AC OuluView prediction →24-Oct-2026VPS vs Inter TurkuView prediction →

The Case For This AC Oulu vs VPS Prediction

This fixture pits two sides with nearly identical season-long scoring and concession rates but diverging recent momentum, particularly in attack. AC Oulu's home record is steady if unspectacular, while VPS's away form has collapsed, reflected in a run of three straight away defeats without scoring. The statistical shape of the match points to a low-scoring contest, with both teams averaging just over a goal per game and a combined under 2.5 goals rate above 60%. VPS's recent attacking impotence and Oulu's marginally better home output tip the balance toward the hosts in a tight, risk-averse encounter.

Key Factors at a Glance

Recent Form

  • →VPS have failed to score in four of their last five matches and have not scored in their last three away games.

Defence

  • →AC Oulu's home and VPS's away records are both negative, but Oulu average 1.14 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game, while VPS away average just 0.79 scored and 1.43 conceded.

Match Context

  • →Combined, these teams have seen under 2.5 goals in 60.7% of their league matches this season.

🚩 AC Oulu vs VPS Corners Prediction

medium confidence
9.2expected total corners
Over 43%
Under 57%
Over 9.5Under 9.5

Our corners model projects roughly 4 corners for AC Oulu and 5.2 for VPS, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.

More corners tips:Over 9.5 →Under 9.5 →

How AC Oulu and VPS Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

AC Oulu vs VPS Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.

AC OuluAC Oululast 5 matches
C. TrianaXI
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

R. KarjalainenXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

J. Makelainensub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

R. Riskisub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

J. PirinenXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

J. Paananensub/out
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

VPSVPSlast 5 matches
X. OdhiamboXI
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

AC Oulu have stabilised with two wins in their last three, including an away victory at Inter Turku, but have lost three straight at home. VPS are in a slump, losing four of their last five and failing to score in four of those, including three consecutive away defeats without a goal. The recent form points to Oulu as the more resilient side, especially given VPS's attacking woes.

AC Oulu vs VPS — Last 10 Matches

AC OuluAC OuluLast 10 results
W2-1
L3-4
W1-0
L0-1
L1-2
L0-1
D0-0
W1-0
L2-3
L0-1
W@ Inter Turku2-1
Lvs HJK Helsinki3-4
W@ KuPS1-0
Lvs Inter Turku0-1
Lvs Gnistan1-2
L@ VPS0-1
Dvs SJK0-0
W@ FF Jaro1-0
Lvs Inter Turku2-3
Lvs HJK Helsinki0-1

Concerns

  • −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
VPSVPSLast 10 results
L0-2
W1-0
L0-6
L0-2
L0-1
W1-0
L0-1
W1-0
L1-3
W3-1
L@ KuPS0-2
Wvs Gnistan1-0
L@ HJK Helsinki0-6
Lvs KuPS0-2
L@ Inter Turku0-1
Wvs AC Oulu1-0
Lvs Lahti0-1
W@ Ilves1-0
Lvs Turku PS1-3
W@ FF Jaro3-1

Concerns

  • −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
  • −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
  • −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game

What History Says: AC Oulu vs VPS

The last ten meetings are perfectly balanced (4 wins each, 2 draws), but Oulu have dominated recent home H2Hs, winning three straight with clean sheets. VPS have not won in Oulu since 2024, and the last three league meetings there have all been decided by a single goal margin in Oulu's favour.

AC Oulu vs VPS Head-to-Head History

Last 10 meetings between these sides

4

AC Oulu wins

2

Draws

4

VPS wins

40%20% draws40%
8 Sept 26VPS vs AC Oulu1-0
23 Jun 26VPS vs AC Oulu5-1
18 Apr 26AC Oulu vs VPS1-0
24 Jan 26VPS vs AC Oulu1-4
4 Oct 25AC Oulu vs VPS2-0
28 Jun 25AC Oulu vs VPS2-1

Things to Watch: AC Oulu vs VPS

  • ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so no value edge calculations.
  • ⚠️Both teams are mid-table and motivation may be variable late in the season.
  • ⚠️Recent form sample is small; a single early goal could open up the match more than the rates suggest.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

AC Oulu 1–0 VPS

AC Oulu are projected to edge a low-scoring contest 1-0, driven by VPS's recent attacking collapse—just one goal in their last five and none in three away. The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Oulu's own inconsistent home form resurfaces or VPS finally break their scoring drought with an early set piece.

AC Oulu vs VPS: Common Questions

Who will win AC Oulu vs VPS?

AC Oulu are given a 41% probability to win, with a 34% chance of a draw and VPS at 25%. Oulu's stronger home output and VPS's recent scoring drought tilt the balance toward the hosts.

Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs VPS?

The model gives just a 32% chance of both teams scoring, with VPS failing to score in four of their last five and Oulu keeping clean sheets in three of their last four H2H home meetings.

Is under 2.5 goals likely in AC Oulu vs VPS?

Under 2.5 goals is rated a 66% probability, as both teams average just over a goal scored per game and their combined under 2.5 rate is above 60% for the season.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AC Oulu vs VPS: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 21 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

More AC Oulu vs VPS Resources

→

AC Oulu Predictions

All AC Oulu fixtures & tips

→

VPS Predictions

All VPS fixtures & tips

→

AC Oulu vs VPS Stats

Full H2H record & season stats

→

Gnistan vs AC Oulu

AC Oulu — next match predictions

→

VPS vs Inter Turku

VPS — next match predictions

→

Veikkausliiga Predictions

All fixtures for this competition

→

Model Accuracy

Track record & verified results