AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch Predictions

AFC Fylde PredictionsAFC Hornchurch PredictionsNational LeagueH2H Stats
Prediction by The Numbers Desk — No extreme form or market signal — routed to The Numbers Desk, which builds the prediction from the underlying statistical rates.
National LeagueNational League · England
high confidence
AFC Fylde

AFC Fylde

AI Predicted Score

2 - 1

AFC Hornchurch

AFC Hornchurch

🗓️ Friday, 30 Oct 2026 at 19:45 GMT (venue time) · 19:45 UTC (your time)📍 Mill Farm, Wesham

Win Probability (1X2)

AFC Fylde 44%Draw 30%AFC Hornchurch 26%

Best Value Pick

Match Result: AFC Fylde Win

Read the Preview Play With the Prediction See the Value Calls View Team Form

Recommended Bets: AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch

Match Result: AFC Fylde Win
7/10
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
6/10

AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch: Match Preview

AFC Fylde approach this fixture in seventh place, buoyed by back-to-back wins including a 5-0 FA Cup rout and a 2-0 league victory over Scunthorpe. Their overall record of seven wins from thirteen, with a positive goal difference (+6), puts them in the playoff mix. AFC Hornchurch sit two points back in ninth, but their record is defined by a sharp home/away split: five wins from six at home, but just two from seven on the road, conceding 17 away goals.

The statistical matchup is shaped by Fylde’s consistent home attack (1.5 goals per home game) and Hornchurch’s vulnerability away from home (2.43 goals conceded per away match). Both teams average over 1.3 goals conceded per game and have over 60% of matches finishing above 2.5 goals (Fylde 69%, Hornchurch 62%). Fylde’s clean sheet rate is just 23%, while Hornchurch’s is 31%, suggesting both defences are prone to lapses. First-half goals are common for both sides, with Fylde and Hornchurch each netting four or more in the opening 45 minutes across their last five.

The model expects Fylde’s attacking output to prove decisive, especially against a Hornchurch side that has lost five of seven away. However, Hornchurch’s recent uptick—two wins in their last three, including a 4-0 FA Cup win—means they should not be discounted entirely. The likeliest scenario is a home win in a match with chances at both ends, reflected in a predicted 2-1 scoreline.

🎮 Prediction Playground

Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.

AFC Fylde1.75

Expected goals · model says 1.75

AFC Hornchurch1.35

Expected goals · model says 1.35

Win Probability
AFC Fylde 47% Draw 23% AFC Hornchurch 30%

Over 2.5 Goals

60%

BTTS: Yes

61%

Likely Scores

1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0

Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.

Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.

AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch Prediction Confidence at a Glance

How strongly the model leans on each market.

Match Result (1X2)
44%
30%
26%
AFC Fylde 44%Draw 30%AFC Hornchurch 26%
Both Teams to Score
56%
44%
Yes 56%No 44%
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
62%
38%
Over 2.5 62%Under 2.5 38%

Stats Worth Knowing

The numbers behind AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch that most previews miss.

  • 1Hornchurch have conceded multiple goals in 5 of their 7 away league matches (2.43 per game).
  • 2Fylde’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 9 of 13 league fixtures (69%).
  • 3Both teams have scored in only 1 of Fylde’s last 5 and 1 of Hornchurch’s last 5 league matches, but season-long BTTS rates are higher.

Who do you think wins: AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch?

Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.

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The Case For This AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch Prediction

AFC Fylde’s home scoring rate and Hornchurch’s away defensive frailty set the statistical tone for this fixture, with both teams trending towards high-scoring matches. Fylde’s home average of 1.5 goals for and 1.33 conceded per game, combined with Hornchurch’s 2.43 goals conceded per away match, create an environment where multiple goals are likely. The most probable outcome is a narrow home win, but Hornchurch’s ability to score on the road means a clean sheet for Fylde is far from assured.

Key Factors at a Glance

Defence

  • →Fylde’s home attack (1.5 goals/game) faces a Hornchurch away defence conceding 2.43 per match.
  • →Hornchurch have lost five of seven away, scoring just 0.86 and conceding 2.43 per game.

Match Context

  • →Both teams’ over 2.5 goal rates are above 60% for the season.

How AFC Fylde and AFC Hornchurch Are Arriving

Form, fitness and who's likely to start.

AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch Goalscorer Form

Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.

AFC FyldeAFC Fyldelast 5 matches
Cedric Julien Main
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

D. Mayor
2 goals in 5
40%

Regular contributor

Luke McCormick
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

L. Thomas
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

A. Drewe
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

AFC HornchurchAFC Hornchurchlast 5 matches
D. Poleon
3 goals in 5
60%

Scoring consistently

C. Pegrum
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

H. Hearn
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

T. Wraight
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

J. Baldwin
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

G. Alexander
1 goal in 5
20%

Occasional threat

Fylde have won three of their last five in all competitions, including a commanding 5-0 FA Cup win, and are on a two-match winning streak. Hornchurch also arrive off back-to-back wins but have alternated results in the league, with away form a clear weakness—five losses in seven. Both sides show attacking promise but neither has been defensively reliable.

AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch — Last 10 Matches

AFC FyldeAFC FyldeLast 10 results
W2-0
L1-3
L0-2
W1-0
L1-2
W2-1
W4-1
D2-2
W3-1
W2-0
Wvs Scunthorpe2-0
L@ Southend1-3
Lvs Carlisle0-2
W@ Boston United1-0
Lvs Altrincham1-2
W@ Harrogate Town2-1
W@ Yeovil Town4-1
Dvs Worthing2-2
W@ Solihull Moors3-1
Wvs Forest Green2-0

Strengths

  • +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
  • +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
  • +Over 2.5 goals in 69.23% of games this season
AFC HornchurchAFC HornchurchLast 10 results
W2-0
L0-3
W2-1
L0-3
W1-0
L0-1
L0-3
L0-1
W3-2
W1-0
Wvs Eastleigh2-0
L@ Harrogate Town0-3
Wvs Aldershot Town2-1
L@ Altrincham0-3
Wvs Scunthorpe1-0
L@ Worthing0-1
L@ FC Halifax Town0-3
Lvs Forest Green0-1
W@ Boston United3-2
Wvs Woking1-0

Strengths

  • +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5

Things to Watch: AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch

  • ⚠️No head-to-head data available for these teams at this level.
  • ⚠️Absence of shots, possession, and set-piece data limits granularity of analysis.
  • ⚠️Market odds unavailable at time of analysis; value edges cannot be computed.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.

Final Verdict

AFC Fylde 2–1 AFC Hornchurch

The model calls a 2-1 home win for AFC Fylde, primarily on the basis of Hornchurch’s away defensive record—17 conceded in 7 away games is a clear statistical red flag. The main risk is that Fylde’s own defensive numbers are only average, and Hornchurch have shown recent attacking improvement, so a high-scoring draw or a late away equaliser cannot be ruled out.

AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch: Common Questions

Who will win AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch?

AFC Fylde are favoured with a 44% probability of victory, compared to 26% for AFC Hornchurch and 30% for the draw, based on both teams’ home/away splits and goal rates.

Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch?

The model gives a 62% probability to over 2.5 goals, as both teams’ league matches go over this line more than 60% of the time (Fylde 69%, Hornchurch 62%).

Are both teams likely to score in AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch?

Both teams to score is rated at 56% probability, with Fylde’s clean sheet rate at just 23% and Hornchurch scoring in three of their last five outings.

How This Prediction Was Made

The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AFC Fylde vs AFC Hornchurch: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.

This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.

Last updated: 23 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.

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Model Accuracy

Track record & verified results