AFC Fylde vs Worthing Predictions
National League · England
AFC Fylde
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Worthing
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
AFC Fylde vs Worthing: Match Preview
AFC Fylde and Worthing both sit in the top half of the National League table after four rounds, separated by a single point and boasting similar scoring records. Fylde have started solidly at Mill Farm, taking four points from two home games and coming off a 2-0 win over Forest Green, while Worthing’s campaign has been more volatile, alternating wins and losses but showing attacking intent with seven goals scored.
Statistically, this is a high-goal environment: both teams have seen 75% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals, and each averages at least 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game. Fylde’s home defensive record (two goals conceded in two) is marginally better than Worthing’s away defensive numbers (five conceded in two), but both sides are yet to keep more than one clean sheet. Notably, both teams tend to score across both halves, with Fylde splitting their last five goals 3 in the first half and 5 in the second, while Worthing are even at four each.
Given these rates, the model projects a match with a high probability of both teams scoring and a strong chance of a third or fourth goal. Fylde’s slight home advantage and marginally better defensive output tip the balance towards a 2-1 home win, but the draw and a 2-2 scenario are not far behind in likelihood. The absence of H2H data and the early stage of the season add a layer of uncertainty to all projections.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 1.35
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
AFC Fylde vs Worthing Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind AFC Fylde vs Worthing that most previews miss.
- 1Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in three of their four league matches this season.
- 2Fylde’s home matches are averaging 3.0 total goals, while Worthing’s away games are averaging 5.0.
- 3Fylde have scored in every league match so far; Worthing have scored in all four as well.
Who do you think wins: AFC Fylde vs Worthing?
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The Case For This AFC Fylde vs Worthing Prediction
Both AFC Fylde and Worthing come into this fixture with identical over 2.5 goal rates (75%) and nearly matching scoring records, but Fylde’s home defensive numbers give them a marginal edge. With both sides averaging over 1.5 goals scored per game and conceding at least 1.5, the statistical expectation is for an open contest with both teams likely to find the net. The model leans towards a narrow home win, but the draw and high-scoring outcomes remain well in play given the underlying rates.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →AFC Fylde average 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game; Worthing average 1.75 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Match Context
- →Both teams have a 75% over 2.5 goals rate after four league matches.
- →Fylde have not lost at home this season (1W, 1D, 4-2 aggregate); Worthing’s away record is 1W, 1L with 5-5 aggregate.
How AFC Fylde and Worthing Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
AFC Fylde vs Worthing Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
AFC Fyldelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Worthinglast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
AFC Fylde have taken seven points from their opening four, including a 2-0 home win last time out and an unbeaten record at Mill Farm. Worthing have alternated wins and losses, but have scored in every match and shown attacking threat, though they conceded three in their most recent away defeat at Tamworth.
AFC Fylde vs Worthing — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
What History Says: AFC Fylde vs Worthing
No head-to-head data exists for this pairing, so there are no historical matchup trends or recurring scorelines to inform this fixture.
AFC Fylde vs Worthing Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
AFC Fylde wins
1
Draws
0
Worthing wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: AFC Fylde vs Worthing
No bookmaker odds are available for this match, so no value edges or recommended bets can be identified. All model probabilities are based strictly on the underlying goal and result rates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: AFC Fylde vs Worthing
- ⚠️No head-to-head data is available for this fixture, reducing confidence in matchup-specific trends.
- ⚠️Small early-season sample sizes increase variance in all rate-based projections.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so value edges and recommended bets cannot be computed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
AFC Fylde 2–1 WorthingThe model calls a 2-1 win for AFC Fylde, primarily on the strength of their 2.0 goals per game scoring rate and unbeaten home record. The single strongest data point is that both teams have seen 75% of their matches go over 2.5 goals, so a high-scoring draw or a late Worthing equaliser remains a plausible risk to the home win projection.
AFC Fylde vs Worthing: Common Questions
Who will win AFC Fylde vs Worthing?
AFC Fylde are given a 44% probability to win, with the draw at 30% and Worthing at 26%. The underlying numbers show both teams are scoring and conceding freely, making a close contest likely.
Will both teams score in AFC Fylde vs Worthing?
The probability of both teams scoring is 59%, based on both sides averaging at least 1.5 goals scored and conceded per game and each scoring in all four league matches so far.
How likely is over 2.5 goals in AFC Fylde vs Worthing?
There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, with both teams having a 75% over 2.5 rate in league play and their matches averaging 3.5+ goals per game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for AFC Fylde vs Worthing: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.