Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Full Time
3 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Al-Fateh
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
Match Result
7.8/10Al-Ahli Jeddah Outclass Al-Fateh 3-1 in Jeddah Showdown
Al-Ahli Jeddah delivered a commanding performance at King Abdullah Sports City, dispatching Al-Fateh 3-1 in a match that showcased their attacking prowess and tactical superiority. The hosts took the lead in the 27th minute, setting the tone for a first half they largely controlled with 56% possession and relentless forward play. Al-Fateh briefly threatened a comeback with a goal five minutes after the interval, but Al-Ahli responded with two more strikes in the closing stages to seal the result. The match was a tale of Al-Ahli's creativity and clinical finishing against an Al-Fateh side that struggled to contain their hosts, despite flashes of attacking intent. With nine shots on target from 20 attempts, Al-Ahli consistently tested Fernando Pacheco, while their defensive unit, marshaled by Edouard Mendy, limited Al-Fateh to just five shots on target. Tactical tweaks and late substitutions added fresh impetus for the home side, ensuring a deserved three points.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
3 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/3 hit
Key Moments
27' — Goal
Al-Ahli Jeddah open the scoring, capitalizing on early dominance.
50' — Goal
Matías Vargas levels for Al-Fateh, igniting hopes of a comeback.
76' — Goal
Al-Ahli retake the lead with a well-worked move, swinging momentum back their way.
90' — Goal
Al-Ahli seal the win with a late third, extinguishing Al-Fateh’s resistance.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Al-Fateh pick up two yellow cards as frustration mounts.
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah impressed with a dynamic attacking display, dominating possession and creating a wealth of chances. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid movement in midfield and effective link-up play, particularly from the likes of Riyad Mahrez and Franck Kessié. The hosts were relentless in their forward thrusts, registering 20 shots and keeping the pressure on Al-Fateh’s backline throughout. Defensively, Al-Ahli remained disciplined, conceding just a single goal and matching Al-Fateh physically with nine fouls. The late goals showcased their ability to maintain intensity and close out matches with authority.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh showed resilience and threatened a comeback early in the second half, but ultimately struggled to match Al-Ahli’s intensity and quality. Their 3-4-2-1 formation provided some solidity in midfield, and they managed 12 shots, but only five tested Mendy. The visitors’ discipline faltered at times, picking up two yellow cards in their attempts to disrupt Al-Ahli’s rhythm. Despite a spirited spell after their goal, Al-Fateh were unable to sustain pressure or capitalize on their chances, conceding twice more as the match wore on.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Ahli Jeddah’s 4-2-3-1 allowed them to control the midfield and stretch Al-Fateh’s three-man defense, with Mahrez and Kessié exploiting the half-spaces. The full-backs provided width, while Ivan Toney’s movement created gaps for midfield runners. Al-Fateh’s 3-4-2-1 aimed to crowd the center and counter quickly, but they struggled to deal with Al-Ahli’s positional rotations and pressing. Substitutions in the second half refreshed Al-Ahli’s legs and maintained their attacking impetus, while Al-Fateh’s attempts to push forward left them exposed at the back, leading to the late goals that decided the contest.
Turning Point
Al-Ahli’s goal in the 76th minute, which restored their lead and shattered Al-Fateh’s momentum after the equalizer.
Man of the Match
Riyad Mahrez
Instrumental in orchestrating Al-Ahli’s attacks, provided an assist, and consistently created danger.
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Expected goals · model says 2.10
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
Al-Ahli Jeddah have a near-perfect home record (11W, 3D, 0L), strong recent form (WLWWW), and a much higher league position. Al-Fateh are winless in their last 4, have a poor away record (2W, 4D, 7L), and are on a 3-game losing streak. All key stats point to a home win.
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BTTS: No
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept 3 clean sheets in their last 5 and have the league's second-best defensive record. Al-Fateh have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and have looked toothless in attack recently.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams are below 50% for over 2.5 goals this season, and Al-Fateh's attack is weak away from home. Al-Ahli's defense is strong, suggesting a controlled home win rather than a goal fest.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Prediction
Al-Ahli Jeddah enter this fixture as strong favorites, boasting an unbeaten home record and excellent recent form. Their defense has been particularly impressive, while Al-Fateh have struggled for both results and goals, especially away from home. The home side is likely to control the match, with Al-Fateh offering limited attacking threat. Expect Al-Ahli to score early and manage the game, with a clean sheet a strong possibility.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah: 11W, 3D, 0L at home, 54 goals scored, 19 conceded in 27 games.
- →Al-Fateh: 2W, 4D, 7L away, 14 goals scored, 24 conceded away.
- →Al-Ahli: 3 clean sheets in last 5, failed to score in 0 of last 5.
- →Al-Ahli average 2 goals per game, Al-Fateh concede 1.78 per game.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries for either side.
Match Context
- →Al-Fateh: 3 losses in a row, failed to score in 2 of last 5.
🚩 Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 4.8 for Al-Fateh, for an expected total of 9.3. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (55%). Over 8.5: 58% · Over 10.5: 33%.
How Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al-Fateh Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Ahli Jeddahlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Al-Fatehlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +51.61% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
2
Draws
4
Al-Fateh wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available; value/edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some away team recent match stats (shots, possession) are missing, increasing uncertainty.
- ⚠️H2H history is mixed, but recent form and context strongly favor Al-Ahli.
- ⚠️Match is listed as postponed; actual play date may change.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al-Fateh: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 6 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.