Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al-Fateh
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
Match Result
7.8/10Al-Ahli Jeddah Dismantle Al-Fateh in Ruthless 4-0 Away Triumph
Al-Ahli Jeddah delivered a commanding performance at Maydan Tamweel Al Oula, cruising to a 4-0 victory over Al-Fateh in the Saudi Pro League. The visitors dictated the tempo from the outset, boasting 62% possession and peppering the Al-Fateh goal with 17 shots, 10 of which were on target. In contrast, the hosts struggled to create meaningful chances, managing just a single effort on target throughout the 90 minutes. The breakthrough came in the 31st minute, setting the tone for Al-Ahli’s dominance. They doubled their lead shortly after halftime and never looked back, adding further goals in the 60th and 89th minutes to cap a thoroughly professional display. Al-Fateh, despite fielding a defensively-minded 5-4-1 formation, were unable to contain the visitors' attacking verve and found themselves overrun in midfield and outgunned at both ends.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
0 - 4
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
31' — Goal
Al-Ahli Jeddah open the scoring, seizing control of the match.
50' — Goal
Al-Ahli double their lead just after halftime, deflating Al-Fateh hopes.
60' — Goal
A third goal for Al-Ahli, effectively sealing the result.
89' — Goal
Al-Ahli cap a dominant display with a late fourth.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Al-Fateh pick up four bookings in a physical, frustrated performance.
Al-Fateh
Al-Fateh endured a torrid afternoon, struggling to impose themselves against a rampant Al-Ahli Jeddah. Their defensive 5-4-1 setup failed to stem the tide, with the backline breached four times despite their best efforts. Offensively, the hosts were largely anonymous, registering only five shots and just one on target, a testament to their lack of attacking threat. Discipline was also an issue, as they collected four yellow cards in a physical but ultimately ineffective attempt to disrupt Al-Ahli’s rhythm. The midfield was overrun, and lone striker W. Kanga was left isolated and starved of service.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah were in imperious form, controlling possession and dictating play with authority. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to dominate the midfield and create a flurry of chances, as evidenced by their 17 shots and 10 on target. The team’s attacking quartet were a constant menace, breaking through Al-Fateh’s defensive lines with regularity. Defensively, Al-Ahli were rarely troubled, comfortably snuffing out the hosts’ sporadic attacks. Their only blemish was a single yellow card in an otherwise disciplined display. The late fourth goal was the perfect exclamation point on a one-sided contest.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al-Fateh’s choice of a 5-4-1 formation was a clear attempt to frustrate Al-Ahli, but it backfired as the visitors’ fluid 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate possession and stretch the play. Al-Ahli’s double pivot provided a solid base, freeing up their attacking midfielders to exploit spaces between the lines and overwhelm Al-Fateh’s rearguard. The width provided by Galeno and Trincão was particularly effective, repeatedly pulling Al-Fateh’s defenders out of position. Al-Fateh’s inability to transition from defense to attack meant that their lone forward, W. Kanga, was isolated and ineffective. As the match wore on, Al-Ahli’s superior fitness and technical quality became increasingly apparent, with their pressing forcing turnovers and their intricate passing moves carving open the home defense.
Turning Point
Al-Ahli’s second goal in the 50th minute, coming just after halftime, killed any momentum Al-Fateh hoped to build and put the result beyond doubt.
Man of the Match
Trincão
Pulled the strings in midfield, consistently creating chances and orchestrating Al-Ahli’s attacks.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: Match Preview
Al-Fateh enter this round anchored in 15th, winless after seven matches and with a form string of 'LLDDD'. They have struggled to find the net, scoring just four times all season and only once at home, and are coming off back-to-back defeats conceding six goals. Al-Ahli Jeddah, meanwhile, are 6th, having scored 16 goals in seven games and winning four, though their away record is less convincing at 1W-0D-3L.
The statistical profile is stark: Al-Ahli Jeddah average 2.29 goals scored per game, with 85.7% of their matches going over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring in four of their last five. Al-Fateh, by contrast, have a 28.6% clean sheet rate and average just 0.57 goals per game. The away side's attack faces a home defence that has conceded three in three at home, while Al-Fateh's own attack is the league's least productive. First-half goals are likely, with Al-Ahli Jeddah netting six before the break in their last five.
The model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah's attacking rates to carry the day, with their shot volume and conversion likely overwhelming a low-output home side. Al-Fateh's inability to generate chances or protect leads means the likeliest scenario is an away win, with a 2-1 or 2-0 scoreline most probable unless Al-Ahli's away frailties resurface.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 2.00
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah that most previews miss.
- 1Al-Ahli Jeddah matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 6 of 7 league games (85.7%).
- 2Al-Fateh have scored just once in three home matches this season (0.33 per game).
- 3In the last 10 H2H meetings, only two ended in draws and six produced at least three goals.
Who do you think wins: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
Al-Ahli Jeddah average 2.29 goals per game this season and have scored in every league match, while Al-Fateh are winless with just 0.57 goals scored per game and a 28.57% clean sheet rate. The away side's attacking rate and the hosts' lack of output combine for a strong away probability, though odds are unavailable to confirm value.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Al-Ahli Jeddah matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 85.7% of league games, while Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.57 conceded per game) and recent 4-2 and 2-1 defeats suggest a high goal environment.
Read more ↓
More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction
This fixture pits a winless Al-Fateh side, currently 15th with just 3 points from 7 matches, against an Al-Ahli Jeddah team that sits 6th and boasts the league's third-highest goal tally. Al-Fateh's form string of 'LLDDD' highlights a side struggling to create and convert chances, with only four goals scored all season and just one at home. In contrast, Al-Ahli Jeddah have scored 16 in 7, including 12 at home, and have found the net in every league outing. Statistically, the matchup is lopsided: Al-Fateh average 0.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game, with a home record of 0W-1D-2L and only one goal at their own ground. Al-Ahli Jeddah's away form is less impressive (1W-0D-3L, 4 for, 9 against), but their overall attacking output remains robust, averaging 2.4 goals per game over the last five and posting 23 shots in their most recent league win. The visitors' matches are high-scoring, with an 85.7% over 2.5 rate and BTTS in four of their last five. Given these rates, the model expects Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack to dictate the tempo, especially against a home side that has failed to score in two of their last five and has not kept a clean sheet in three straight. The likeliest scenario is the away side scoring first and controlling the match, with Al-Fateh's low shot conversion and lack of home threat limiting their response.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Al-Fateh average just 0.57 goals scored per game this season, lowest in the league.
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah have scored in all 7 league matches and average 2.29 goals per game.
Match Context
- →Al-Fateh have not won at home (0W-1D-2L) and have scored only once at their own ground.
🚩 Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Al-Fateh and 4.6 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Al-Fateh and Al-Ahli Jeddah Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al-Fatehlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Ahli Jeddahlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Al-Fateh are winless in seven, with two straight defeats and just four goals scored all season. Their form string 'LLDDD' reflects a side struggling at both ends, especially at home where they've managed only one goal. Al-Ahli Jeddah, by contrast, have won four of seven and scored in every league match, though their away form (1W-0D-3L) is less convincing than their overall attacking output.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of games this season
What History Says: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
The last ten meetings are evenly split, with each side winning four and two draws, but recent home fixtures favour Al-Fateh, who won 2-1 and 5-1 in their last two at this ground. High-scoring games are common, with six of the last ten producing three or more goals and only two ending level.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Al-Fateh wins
2
Draws
4
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
Things to Watch: Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- ⚠️Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record is poor (1W-0D-3L, 4 for, 9 against), introducing volatility.
- ⚠️Al-Fateh's defence has shown some resilience at home (3 conceded in 3), though sample is small.
- ⚠️No odds available, so value cannot be formally assessed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Al-Fateh 1–2 Al-Ahli JeddahThe model forecasts a 2-1 win for Al-Ahli Jeddah, driven primarily by the away side's 2.29 goals per game average and Al-Fateh's league-worst attack. The greatest risk to this outcome is Al-Ahli Jeddah's poor away defensive record (9 conceded in 4), which could allow Al-Fateh to keep it closer than the underlying rates suggest.
Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: Common Questions
Who will win Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
Al-Ahli Jeddah are favoured with a 54% probability of winning, based on their 2.29 goals per game and Al-Fateh's winless start. Al-Fateh have just a 19% chance of victory, with a 27% probability for a draw.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
There is a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals, supported by Al-Ahli Jeddah's high-scoring matches (85.7% over 2.5 this season) and both sides' recent defensive vulnerabilities.
Is both teams to score likely in Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah?
The model gives a 57% probability to both teams scoring, with Al-Ahli Jeddah seeing BTTS in four of their last five and Al-Fateh conceding in five straight matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al-Fateh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.