Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Predictions
Pro League · Saudi-Arabia
Al Riyadh
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 0 - 2
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
Match Result
6.5/10Late Toney Strike Lifts Al-Ahli Past Resilient Al Riyadh in Riyadh
Al-Ahli Jeddah edged past Al Riyadh with a narrow 1-0 victory at the Prince Faisal bin Fahd Stadium, thanks to a decisive goal from Ivan Toney in the 75th minute. The visitors dominated possession and created the better chances throughout, but were repeatedly frustrated by a stubborn Al Riyadh defense until Toney finally broke the deadlock late in the second half. Al Riyadh, set up in a defensive 5-4-1 formation, managed to keep Al-Ahli at bay for much of the match despite conceding 54% possession and facing 15 shots (6 on target). However, their inability to register a single shot on target from 13 attempts ultimately cost them, as Al-Ahli’s persistence paid off with a deserved winner.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
75' — Goal
Ivan Toney breaks the deadlock with a clinical finish after sustained Al-Ahli pressure.
58' — Yellow Card
Al Riyadh’s discipline tested as they pick up the game’s only yellow card.
Al Riyadh
Al Riyadh set out with a clear defensive game plan, employing a 5-4-1 formation that prioritized structure and discipline over attacking ambition. Their back line, marshaled by Milan Borjan in goal and Sergio González in defense, held firm for much of the contest, absorbing waves of Al-Ahli pressure. However, their inability to transition effectively into attack was evident: despite registering 13 shots, none were on target, and they failed to win a single corner. The hosts' resilience was commendable, but their lack of attacking threat left them vulnerable once Al-Ahli finally found a breakthrough. The midfield struggled to connect with lone forward Leandro Antunes, and the team’s attacking efforts fizzled out before seriously testing Edouard Mendy.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al-Ahli Jeddah controlled the match with 54% possession and a proactive 4-3-3 formation, consistently pushing Al Riyadh back and carving out 15 shots, 6 of which were on target. Their midfield trio, led by Franck Kessié, dictated the tempo and provided a platform for the front three to probe for openings. Despite their dominance, Al-Ahli were made to wait until the 75th minute for Ivan Toney to finally breach the hosts’ resistance. Defensively, Merih Demiral and Roger Ibañez were largely untroubled, with Edouard Mendy enjoying a quiet evening. The result was a deserved, if hard-fought, three points for the visitors.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Al Riyadh’s 5-4-1 formation was designed to frustrate, with five at the back and a compact midfield four screening the defense. This approach limited Al-Ahli’s space in central areas, forcing them to utilize the flanks and rely on set pieces, as evidenced by their six corners. However, Al Riyadh’s lack of attacking intent left Leandro Antunes isolated and unable to trouble the visitors’ defense. Al-Ahli’s 4-3-3 allowed them to control possession and dictate the tempo, with Kessié orchestrating play from midfield and the front three stretching the Al Riyadh back line. Patient in their build-up, Al-Ahli eventually found reward for their persistence, exploiting a rare lapse in the hosts’ defensive concentration to score the winner.
Turning Point
Ivan Toney’s 75th-minute goal, which finally broke Al Riyadh’s defensive resistance and secured all three points for Al-Ahli.
Man of the Match
Ivan Toney
Scored the decisive goal and was a constant threat leading the line for Al-Ahli.
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Expected goals · model says 0.45
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
31%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 0-3
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Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
Al-Ahli Jeddah have a vastly superior record, form, and defensive solidity compared to Al Riyadh. The away side is unbeaten in 10 away games (7W, 2D, 1L), scoring 1.5 goals per away match and conceding just 0.4. Al Riyadh have only 2 home wins in 11, scoring just 1 goal per home game and conceding 1.45. Recent form and H2H also strongly favor Al-Ahli.
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BTTS: No
Al Riyadh have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 and average less than 1 goal per game. Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept 2 clean sheets in their last 5 and have a season clean sheet rate above 54%.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams have a 45% over 2.5 rate this season. Al Riyadh's games rarely see high scores, and Al-Ahli are defensively solid. A controlled away win is likely.
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More Pro League Predictions
The Case For This Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Prediction
Al Riyadh face a daunting task at home against title-chasing Al-Ahli Jeddah. The hosts are struggling near the bottom of the table, with just three wins in 22 matches and a leaky defense. Al-Ahli, in contrast, are in excellent form, boasting a 10-game unbeaten away record and one of the league's best defenses. Expect Al-Ahli to control the game, limit Al Riyadh's chances, and secure a professional win, likely with a clean sheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Recent H2H: Al-Ahli have won 5 of the last 8 meetings.
- →Al Riyadh's recent form is poor (WDLLD), while Al-Ahli are on a 3-game winning streak.
Attack
- →Al Riyadh have managed just 2 home wins and average less than 1 goal per game.
Defence
- →Al-Ahli Jeddah are unbeaten in their last 10 away league matches (7W, 2D, 1L), conceding just 4 goals.
- →Al-Ahli's season clean sheet rate is 54.55%, while Al Riyadh keep a clean sheet in less than 10% of matches.
🚩 Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Al Riyadh and 4 for Al-Ahli Jeddah, for an expected total of 8.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 46% · Over 10.5: 23%.
How Al Riyadh and Al-Ahli Jeddah Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Al Riyadhlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Al-Ahli Jeddahlast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +51.72% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
2
Al Riyadh wins
1
Draws
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah wins
Things to Watch: Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value and EV cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, corners, etc.) missing for several recent games.
- ⚠️Lineups for this fixture are not available; possible late injuries or rotations not captured.
- ⚠️Al-Ahli have played AFC Champions League games recently, so rotation risk exists.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Al Riyadh vs Al-Ahli Jeddah: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 21 February 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.