Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor Predictions
1. Lig · Turkey
Antalyaspor
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 2
Bursaspor
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Bursaspor Win
Match Result
6.7/10Antalyaspor and Bursaspor Share the Spoils in Hard-Fought 1-1 Draw
Antalyaspor and Bursaspor played out a competitive 1-1 draw at Corendon Airlines Park, with both sides showing flashes of quality but ultimately unable to find a decisive winner. Bursaspor took the lead in the 26th minute, capitalizing on a spell of sustained possession, but Antalyaspor responded just before half-time to level the scores. The second half saw both teams push for a breakthrough, with Bursaspor edging possession at 54% and registering 13 shots to Antalyaspor's 12. However, resolute defending and a lack of clinical finishing meant the scoreboard remained unchanged, as the match finished with honors even.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 2
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
26' — Goal
K. Ịheanachọ puts Bursaspor ahead after a well-worked move.
45' — Goal
S. van de Streek equalizes for Antalyaspor on the stroke of half-time.
38' — Yellow Card
S. Dikmen (Antalyaspor) booked for a foul in midfield.
57' — Yellow Card
E. Ersoy (Bursaspor) shown yellow for a late challenge.
70' — Substitution
Antalyaspor introduce fresh legs in midfield, seeking more control.
81' — Yellow Card
G. Vural (Antalyaspor) cautioned for dissent.
Antalyaspor
Antalyaspor showed resilience after falling behind, responding well to Bursaspor's opener and finding an equalizer at a crucial moment just before the break. Playing in a 4-2-3-1 formation, the hosts created several promising opportunities, registering 12 shots with 4 on target, but struggled to convert their attacking pressure into a second goal. Their midfield worked hard to disrupt Bursaspor's rhythm, but discipline became an issue with 20 fouls and 3 yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bursaspor
Bursaspor started brightly in their 4-4-2 setup, controlling more of the ball and looking dangerous in transition. Their early pressure paid off with a 26th-minute opener, but after conceding just before half-time, they found it difficult to break down a determined Antalyaspor defense. Despite having 54% possession and winning 6 corners, Bursaspor managed only 2 shots on target from 13 attempts, highlighting a lack of cutting edge in the final third.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Antalyaspor lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on compactness in midfield and quick transitions through S. van de Streek and Nuno da Costa. Their pressing disrupted Bursaspor's build-up, but they struggled to create clear chances from wide areas. Bursaspor's 4-4-2 allowed them to dominate possession and stretch play, but their forwards often found themselves isolated as Antalyaspor's double pivot shielded the back four effectively. Set pieces were a key avenue for Bursaspor, who won 6 corners, but Antalyaspor defended them resolutely. Tactical substitutions in the second half aimed to inject energy, but neither side could break the deadlock.
Turning Point
S. van de Streek's equalizer just before half-time shifted momentum and denied Bursaspor the chance to control the game from a position of strength.
Man of the Match
S. van de Streek
Scored a crucial equalizer and was consistently involved in Antalyaspor's attacking play.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor: Match Preview
Antalyaspor come into this fixture eighth in the 1. Lig, having lost five of seven home matches and sitting on 18 points after 12 games. Their recent form is mixed (WLWLW), but they did win their most recent cup tie and have managed three clean sheets in their last five across all competitions. Bursaspor, meanwhile, are top of the league with 28 points, riding a three-match winning streak and boasting the division's best away record.
Statistically, the matchup tilts towards goals. Antalyaspor's home games average 4.0 total goals (12 scored, 16 conceded in 7), and Bursaspor's away matches average 3.29 (16 scored, 7 conceded in 7). Bursaspor's attack is the most productive in the league at 2.17 per game, and their shot volume (17.6 per match over the last five) suggests sustained pressure. Antalyaspor's defence has struggled at home, but their attack (1.71 per home game) is capable of testing Bursaspor, who have kept just two clean sheets in their last five.
The model expects Bursaspor's away quality and attacking depth to prove decisive. With both teams trending towards high-scoring matches and Antalyaspor's defensive record at home a concern, the likeliest outcome is a 2-1 win for the visitors. However, Antalyaspor's ability to create chances at home means both teams finding the net remains a strong possibility.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor that most previews miss.
- 1Antalyaspor's home matches average 4.0 total goals, the highest among top-half teams.
- 2Bursaspor have scored in every away match this season, averaging 2.29 goals per away game.
- 3There has not been a draw in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these sides.
Who do you think wins: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bursaspor Win
Bursaspor have won 6 of 7 away matches this season, scoring 16 and conceding only 7, while Antalyaspor have lost 5 of 7 at home and conceded 16. The away win probability is modelled at 52%.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have a high over 2.5 rate (Antalyaspor 66.7%, Bursaspor 75%). The combined season average is 2.83 total goals per game.
More 1. Lig Predictions
The Case For This Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor Prediction
This fixture features a clear contrast in home and away performance. Antalyaspor's home record is a concern: just 2 wins from 7, with 16 goals conceded. Bursaspor, by contrast, top the table and boast 6 wins in 7 away matches, averaging 2.29 goals per away game. Both sides are coming off recent wins, but Bursaspor's consistency and attacking output on the road set them apart. Statistically, Bursaspor's attack (2.17 goals per game overall, 2.29 away) meets an Antalyaspor defence conceding 2.29 per home game. Antalyaspor's attack is competent (1.71 goals per home game) but faces a Bursaspor side with a 41.7% clean sheet rate and just 0.92 goals conceded per match. The goal environment is high: both teams are above 65% for over 2.5 goals, and the last five matches for each average 2.6+ goals. Corners and cards are both above league average, with Bursaspor's last five seeing 17.6 shots and 2.4 yellows per game. The model expects Bursaspor to control possession and create more high-quality chances, especially as Antalyaspor have failed to keep a clean sheet in 4 of 7 home matches. The most likely scenario is Bursaspor scoring first and dictating the tempo, with Antalyaspor needing to chase. The most probable scoreline is 2-1 to the visitors, but the hosts' attacking intent could see both teams on the scoresheet.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Bursaspor have won 6 of 7 away matches, scoring 16 and conceding 7.
- →Antalyaspor have lost 5 of 7 home matches, conceding 2.29 goals per home game.
Match Context
- →Both teams' season over 2.5 goal rate exceeds 65%.
🚩 Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Antalyaspor and 4.2 for Bursaspor, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Antalyaspor and Bursaspor Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Antalyasporlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bursasporlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Antalyaspor's recent form is inconsistent, alternating wins and losses in their last five league matches, and their home record is particularly poor with just two wins from seven. Bursaspor, in contrast, are on a three-game winning run and have won six of their last seven away, underlining their current momentum and attacking strength.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
Antalyaspor have dominated the historical head-to-head, winning seven of the last ten, including a 3-0 home win in their most recent encounter. However, these matches span several years and league contexts, and Bursaspor's current form and league position mark a significant shift in the balance of power.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Antalyaspor wins
1
Draws
3
Bursaspor wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
With bookmaker odds unavailable, value cannot be formally assessed. However, the model's probabilities highlight Bursaspor's away strength and the high likelihood of goals as key angles. If market odds underrate Bursaspor or the over 2.5 goals line, these would be the primary value candidates.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Recent head-to-heads are sparse and not all from the same division.
- ⚠️Antalyaspor's attack has produced in several home matches, so a high-scoring draw cannot be ruled out.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Antalyaspor 1–2 BursasporThe model projects a 2-1 away win for Bursaspor, anchored by their league-best away record (6 wins from 7, 16 goals scored) and Antalyaspor's defensive frailty at home. The strongest data point is Bursaspor's consistent away scoring rate. The main risk is Antalyaspor's sporadic attacking bursts at home, which could turn this into a high-scoring draw.
Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor: Common Questions
Who will win Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor?
Bursaspor are modelled with a 52% chance of victory, based on their 6 wins from 7 away matches and overall league-leading form. Antalyaspor's home struggles (5 losses from 7) further tip the probability towards the visitors.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor?
The model gives a 63% probability to over 2.5 goals, as both teams have high-scoring profiles: Antalyaspor's home games average 4.0 goals, and Bursaspor's away games 3.29.
Are both teams likely to score in Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, with Antalyaspor averaging 1.71 goals at home and Bursaspor scoring in every away match this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Antalyaspor vs Bursaspor: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.