Arouca vs Santa Clara Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Arouca
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Santa Clara
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 2.98(+7% edge)
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Expected goals · model says 0.80
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
19%
BTTS: Yes
28%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Arouca vs Santa Clara?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Arouca vs Santa Clara(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 2.98
Both teams are low-scoring, evenly matched, and recent H2H meetings (including the reverse fixture this season) have been tight. The model finds a value edge on the draw given the high draw probability and the generous odds.
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The Case For This Arouca vs Santa Clara Prediction
Arouca and Santa Clara meet in a mid-table clash where both sides have struggled for consistency and goals. Arouca have a slight home edge but have conceded heavily this season, while Santa Clara are more solid defensively but lack attacking punch, especially away. Both teams have drawn a high number of matches and the recent H2H history shows low-scoring, close contests. Expect a cautious, physical game with few clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →H2H last 3: 0-0, 1-0, 1-0 (all low-scoring, two draws).
Defence
- →Arouca's home record is average (6W 3D 6L), but they concede 1.8 goals/game at home.
- →Both teams have 2 clean sheets in their last 5, and have failed to score in multiple recent games.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Santa Clara have only 2 away wins all season and average just 0.87 goals per away game.
- →Arouca's last 5: LWLWW; Santa Clara's last 5: WDLLW.
- →High card averages, especially for Arouca in recent matches.
🚩 Arouca vs Santa Clara Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Arouca and 5.2 for Santa Clara, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Arouca and Santa Clara Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Arouca vs Santa Clara Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Aroucalast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Santa Claralast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Arouca vs Santa Clara — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Arouca vs Santa Clara
Arouca vs Santa Clara Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Arouca wins
3
Draws
2
Santa Clara wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Arouca vs Santa Clara
Odds from 10Bet. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Arouca vs Santa Clara
- ⚠️Limited shots/shots on target data for Arouca's last 5 games.
- ⚠️Both teams are safe from relegation but have little to play for.
- ⚠️Low attacking output increases draw and under probabilities but also increases variance.
- ⚠️Market odds on under/BTTS are very short, reducing value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Arouca vs Santa Clara: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 29 April 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.