Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Austria Vienna
AI Predicted Score
1 - 3
Rapid Vienna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Rapid Vienna Win
@ 1.6(+14% edge)
Recommended Bets: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna: Match Preview
Austria Vienna limp into the derby on a three-match losing streak, their confidence battered by late collapses and a porous back line that has now shipped 20 goals in 10 league games. Their only respite came in a friendly hammering of Admira Wacker, but in competitive action the hosts have failed to win at home since mid-September and sit 11th, just above the bottom. Rapid Vienna, by contrast, have hit top gear: five straight league wins, 16 goals scored and only two conceded, and a surge to the summit of the Bundesliga table.
Tactically, this is a clash of one of the league's most potent attacks against a side that cannot keep the back door shut. Rapid Vienna average 12.6 shots and 5.6 on target per game over their last five, with a possession share close to 60%. Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have managed just 2 goals in four home matches and have not kept a single clean sheet in their last five. Set-piece data points to Rapid's threat as well, with 5.2 corners per game recently, while Austria Vienna's discipline (1.2 cards per match) may be tested by chasing shadows.
Given the momentum gulf, the model expects Rapid Vienna to dictate the tempo, likely striking first (67% chance) and maintaining control through a midfield that has dominated recent opponents. Austria Vienna's only hope lies in a derby day surge or capitalising on Rapid's occasional away lapses, but the underlying numbers point to a comfortable away win, with the visitors' form and attacking variety likely to overwhelm a fragile home defence.
How Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Austria Viennalast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Rapid Viennalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Austria Vienna are mired in a slump, losing three straight league matches and conceding twice in each of their last two outings. Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, are riding a wave of momentum with five consecutive wins, including a 5-1 demolition of Austria Lustenau last time out. The contrast in recent form could hardly be starker heading into this derby.
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 3.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna that most previews miss.
- 1Rapid Vienna have scored at least two goals before half-time in four of their last five league matches.
- 2Austria Vienna have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five Bundesliga games, conceding at least twice in three of those.
- 3The last five Vienna derbies have produced three away wins and only one home victory, underlining the fixture's unpredictability.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.95
Expected goals · model says 2.55
Over 2.5 Goals
68%
BTTS: Yes
57%
Likely Scores
0-2 · 1-2 · 0-3
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
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The Case For This Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Prediction
Rapid Vienna's relentless form and Austria Vienna's downward spiral set up a derby with a pronounced momentum gap. The away side's five-game winning streak, powered by a surging attack and three clean sheets, stands in stark contrast to the hosts' three consecutive defeats and defensive leaks.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Rapid Vienna have won five consecutive league matches, scoring 16 and conceding just 2 in that span.
- →Austria Vienna are winless in their last four Bundesliga games (three losses, one draw), conceding 9 goals in that stretch.
- →Rapid Vienna average 3.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded per game over their last five, while Austria Vienna average 2.2 scored but 2.0 conceded.
Where the Model Sees Value: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Rapid Vienna Win@ 1.63
Rapid Vienna arrive on a five-match winning streak with an average of 3.2 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game in that run, while Austria Vienna have lost three straight and sit 11th. The away side's momentum and attacking edge are simply on another level to the hosts' current trajectory.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.53
Both teams have seen at least 60% of their league matches go over 2.5 goals, and Rapid Vienna's last five have averaged 3.6 goals per game. Austria Vienna's defensive frailty (20 conceded in 10) increases the likelihood of another high-scoring contest.
Read more ↓
More Bundesliga Predictions
🚩 Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.4 corners for Austria Vienna and 4.8 for Rapid Vienna, for an expected total of 10.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 69% · Over 10.5: 45%.
What History Says: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
The Vienna derby has been surprisingly balanced in recent years, with each side winning four of the last ten encounters and two draws. Notably, away teams have had the upper hand lately, taking three wins from the last five derbies. However, Austria Vienna's last home win in the fixture came in February 2026, and current form suggests the pendulum is swinging Rapid's way.
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Austria Vienna wins
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
The model sees the most value in the away win at 1.60, with a 14% expected value edge over the implied probability—reflecting Rapid Vienna's overwhelming recent form. Over 2.5 goals is also marginally value, given both sides' high-scoring trends and defensive vulnerabilities. There is little value in backing the hosts or the draw given their current trajectory.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna
- ⚠️Austria Vienna's attack has shown flashes (2.2 goals per game last five), so a goal from the hosts cannot be ruled out.
- ⚠️Derby fixtures can produce unpredictable swings and emotional performances that break with form.
- ⚠️Rapid Vienna's away defence is less watertight (6 conceded in 4 away) than their overall record suggests.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Austria Vienna 1–3 Rapid ViennaRapid Vienna's five-match winning streak, combined with a +22 goal difference and 3.2 goals per game over their last five, makes them clear favourites to extend Austria Vienna's misery. The single strongest data point is Rapid's current momentum, but if Austria Vienna can rediscover their attacking edge from earlier in the season or exploit derby-day nerves, the script could flip.
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna: Common Questions
Who will win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna are strong favourites, with the model giving them a 71% chance of victory based on their five-match winning run and 31 goals scored in 10 league games. Austria Vienna's current three-game losing streak and defensive issues leave them as clear underdogs.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
There's a 54% probability of both teams scoring, as Austria Vienna have found the net in four of their last five despite poor results, while Rapid Vienna's away defence has conceded in three of four on the road.
Can Rapid Vienna's winning streak continue in the derby?
The model rates Rapid Vienna's chances of extending their five-game winning run at 71%, driven by their dominant attack (3.2 goals per game last five) and Austria Vienna's recent defensive frailty (20 conceded in 10).
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 25 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.