Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Grazer AK
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
TSV Hartberg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: TSV Hartberg Win
@ 3.6(+40% edge)
Recommended Bets: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: Match Preview
Grazer AK return to the Merkur-Arena after a heavy 1-6 defeat at Sturm Graz, sitting 8th with just two wins from nine and the league's worst defensive record (22 conceded). While their home form is unbeaten (1W, 3D), the low scoring output (4 goals in 4 home games) contrasts sharply with their porous away showings. TSV Hartberg arrive a point and a place better off, having lost narrowly at Rapid Vienna but with a much stronger attacking profile, averaging 1.67 goals per game and scoring in every away match.
The matchup is defined by the contrast between Grazer AK's leaky defence and Hartberg's direct attack. Hartberg's last five league matches have averaged 3.6 total goals, and they have failed to keep a clean sheet all season. Grazer AK's recent games also trend high for goals (2.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per last five), and both sides have seen BTTS in four of their last five. Set piece threat is modest, with both teams averaging under 3 corners per game, and discipline is a minor concern (combined 3.2 yellows per match recently).
The model expects Hartberg's greater attacking output to edge a high-variance contest, projecting a 2-1 away win. The away side's ability to create chances and Grazer AK's defensive frailty drive a high probability for both teams to score and for the match to go over 2.5 goals. However, Grazer AK's unbeaten home record and the frequency of draws in the head-to-head history temper confidence in a clear result.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg that most previews miss.
- 1Grazer AK have conceded 19 goals in 5 away matches but just 3 in 4 at home, a stark home/away split.
- 2TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5 league games, with an average of 3.2 goals per match in that span.
- 3Five of the last seven H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, but both teams' current season over 2.5 goal rate is 66.7%.
Who do you think wins: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: TSV Hartberg Win@ 3.69
TSV Hartberg's attacking rate (1.67 goals per game, 3.0 per last 5) and Grazer AK's defensive frailty (2.44 conceded per game, 22 allowed in 9 matches) combine to make the away win price significantly too long relative to the model's 39% probability.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.66
Both teams have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 league matches, and neither keeps clean sheets consistently (Hartberg 0% season clean sheet rate, Grazer AK 22%).
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More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg Prediction
This fixture features two sides with defensive vulnerabilities and attacking intent, as evidenced by their combined 41 goals conceded in 18 league matches. TSV Hartberg's away scoring rate (1.25 per away match) is a clear step up from Grazer AK's home output (1.0 per home match), but both sides have been porous at the back, especially Grazer AK with 22 conceded already. The statistical profile points to a match with above-average goal expectancy and a higher likelihood of an away result than the market implies.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Grazer AK have conceded 2.44 goals per game this season, the worst defensive record in the league.
- →TSV Hartberg have scored in every away match and have failed to keep a single clean sheet all season.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 66.7% of their league matches.
🚩 Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.2 corners for Grazer AK and 5 for TSV Hartberg, for an expected total of 9.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (56%). Over 8.5: 57% · Over 10.5: 32%.
How Grazer AK and TSV Hartberg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Grazer AKlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Grazer AK's recent form is mixed, with just one win in their last five league matches and a heavy 1-6 defeat last time out highlighting defensive frailty. TSV Hartberg have fared better, winning two and drawing two of their last five, and have scored at least once in every league fixture this season.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
What History Says: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg have the edge in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last seven meetings and twice winning 3-0 away. Draws are common, with four stalemates in this period, and most matches have been low-scoring, though both teams' current defensive records suggest a departure from this trend.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg Head-to-Head History
Last 7 meetings between these sides
0
Grazer AK wins
4
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
The away win is the standout value, with the model's 39% probability translating to a +40% edge over Bet365's 3.60 odds. Both teams to score also shows a positive expected value, with the model's 65% probability exceeding the implied 59% from current odds.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small (5 league games per team) and include friendlies, potentially inflating attack rates.
- ⚠️Grazer AK's home defensive record (3 conceded in 4) is less poor than their overall numbers, introducing some variance.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineup data for this fixture is unavailable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Grazer AK 1–2 TSV HartbergThe model calls a 2-1 win for TSV Hartberg, with the strongest signal coming from Grazer AK's league-worst defensive rate (2.44 conceded per game) against a Hartberg side that consistently finds the net. The main risk is Grazer AK's ability to grind out home draws, as seen in their unbeaten home record and the H2H tendency for stalemates.
Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: Common Questions
Who will win Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
The model gives TSV Hartberg a 39% chance of winning, compared to 29% for Grazer AK and 32% for the draw. Hartberg's superior attacking numbers and Grazer AK's defensive issues tilt the probabilities toward the away side.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
Both teams to score is rated at 65% probability, with both sides having seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 league matches and neither keeping clean sheets regularly.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg?
There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals, backed by both teams' 66.7% season rate for this outcome and their recent high-scoring matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Grazer AK vs TSV Hartberg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 23 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results