Sturm Graz vs Ried Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
Sturm Graz
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Ried
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Ried Win
@ 3.75(+54% edge)
Recommended Bets: Sturm Graz vs Ried
Sturm Graz vs Ried: Match Preview
Sturm Graz and Ried arrive on equal points but with contrasting recent trajectories. Sturm Graz have managed just one win in their last three league outings and have failed to score in three of their last five in all competitions, while Ried are on a two-match Bundesliga winning streak and have scored at least twice in each of their last three league games. Both sides are in the thick of the top-six race, with little margin for error given the table's congestion.
The statistical matchup is shaped by Ried's high-scoring profile: they average 1.78 goals for and 1.67 against per game this season, with a 66.7% over 2.5 goals rate and BTTS in all of their last five. Sturm Graz, by contrast, have been more conservative, with just 1.25 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game, and only 37.5% of their matches clearing the 2.5 goal mark. However, Sturm's attack has faltered recently, failing to score in three of five, while Ried's away defence is vulnerable, conceding 2.25 per away match. Set-piece threat is moderate on both sides, with Sturm averaging five corners per game and Ried just 2.6.
Given these rates, the model expects a match with a higher-than-average goal count and a real chance for Ried to capitalise on Sturm's recent attacking struggles. Ried's offensive momentum and BTTS trend tip the balance, with the most probable outcome a 2-1 away win, but the narrow historical margins and Sturm's home record keep the draw in play.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sturm Graz vs Ried Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sturm Graz vs Ried that most previews miss.
- 1Ried's last five league matches have all seen both teams score, with an average of 4.2 total goals per game.
- 2Sturm Graz have kept two clean sheets in their last five, but failed to score in three of those matches.
- 3Ried's away games average 3.75 total goals, the highest away figure in the top half of the Bundesliga table.
Who do you think wins: Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sturm Graz vs Ried(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Ried Win@ 3.93
Ried's attack is averaging 1.78 goals per game this season and 2.6 over their last five, while Sturm Graz have failed to score in three of their last five and have just a 37.5% clean sheet rate. The model gives Ried a 41% win probability, well above the 26.7% implied by the odds.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.57
Ried matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 66.7% of league games and both teams show higher recent goal involvement. The model gives a 59% probability to over 2.5, close to the 63.7% implied, so value is marginal but the statistical case is strong.
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More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This Sturm Graz vs Ried Prediction
This fixture brings together two sides level on points but trending in opposite directions: Sturm Graz have struggled for goals and consistency, while Ried's attack has been prolific but their defence remains leaky. The statistical profile points to an above-average goal environment, with Ried's away concession rate (2.25 per game) offset by their sharp attacking output. The likeliest outcome is a narrow away win in a match where both sides find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Sturm Graz have failed to score in three of their last five matches.
Attack
- →Ried average 2.6 goals scored per game over their last five, with BTTS in all five.
Defence
- →Ried's away defence concedes 2.25 goals per game, but Sturm Graz only score 1.33 per home game.
🚩 Sturm Graz vs Ried Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Sturm Graz and 4 for Ried, for an expected total of 9.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 63% · Over 10.5: 38%.
How Sturm Graz and Ried Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sturm Graz vs Ried Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sturm Grazlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Riedlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
In exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sturm Graz's recent form is patchy, with a 'LWWLD' string and just one win in their last three league games, compounded by three blanks in their last five across all competitions. Ried, meanwhile, are on a 'WWDWD' run, unbeaten in five and scoring freely, with 13 goals in their last five matches. Momentum clearly favours the visitors.
Sturm Graz vs Ried — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
What History Says: Sturm Graz vs Ried
Sturm Graz have historically controlled this fixture, winning seven of the last ten meetings and every home league clash in that span. Most encounters have been close, with five of the last six decided by a single goal. Ried's lone win in the last ten came away from home in the cup, but not in the league.
Sturm Graz vs Ried Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
7
Sturm Graz wins
2
Draws
1
Ried wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sturm Graz vs Ried
The model finds significant value on Ried to win at 3.75 odds, with a model probability of 41% against an implied 26.7%. Margins are much tighter elsewhere, with BTTS and over 2.5 goals close to market prices, suggesting the main edge lies in the away win rather than goal markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sturm Graz vs Ried
- ⚠️Sample sizes on home/away splits are modest (Sturm Graz only three home league games, Ried four away).
- ⚠️Sturm Graz's Europa League and friendly results may not fully reflect their league-level performance.
- ⚠️No injuries reported, but lineups are not available at this stage.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sturm Graz 1–2 RiedThe model projects a 2-1 win for Ried, driven by their recent attacking surge (2.6 goals per game last five, BTTS in all) against a Sturm Graz side that has struggled to create chances and finish. The greatest risk to this prediction is Sturm's historical dominance at home in this fixture, where they've won seven of the last ten meetings, often by a single goal.
Sturm Graz vs Ried: Common Questions
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Ried?
The model gives Ried a 41% chance of victory, compared to 30% for Sturm Graz and 29% for the draw. Ried's recent attacking output and Sturm's scoring drought drive the away edge, but historical H2H favours Sturm at home.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
Both teams to score is rated at 62% probability, with Ried's last five league matches all seeing BTTS and Sturm Graz conceding in three of their last five.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Sturm Graz vs Ried?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 59%, supported by Ried's 66.7% over 2.5 rate this season and high-scoring recent matches. Sturm Graz games are lower-scoring on average, but Ried's open style raises the goal floor.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sturm Graz vs Ried: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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