TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Predictions
Bundesliga · Austria
TSV Hartberg
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Wolfsberger AC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.67(+7% edge)
Recommended Bets: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC: Match Preview
Hartberg approach this fixture from mid-table, having taken 11 points from nine matches and showing a recent upturn in attacking output, with three or more goals scored in three of their last four league games. Wolfsberger, bottom of the table with just five points and winless away, are coming off three consecutive league defeats, conceding 10 goals in that span. The gap in momentum is reflected in the standings, with Hartberg six places and six points ahead.
The statistical matchup is defined by Hartberg's high-scoring, high-conceding profile: their home matches average 4.4 total goals (10 for, 12 against in five games). Wolfsberger's away games are lower-scoring due to their blunt attack (0.5 goals per game), but defensive frailty (9 conceded in 4 away) keeps the over 2.5 rate high. Both sides show a tendency for late goals—Hartberg have scored twice as many after the break in their last five, while Wolfsberger have conceded heavily in second halves. Cards and corners rates are moderate, with no clear edge on set pieces.
Given the underlying rates, the model expects an open contest, with Hartberg's attack likely to outgun Wolfsberger's limited forward threat. However, neither defence inspires confidence, so a 2-1 home win is marginally favoured, but the draw remains a live outcome due to Hartberg's vulnerability and Wolfsberger's occasional ability to force parity in this matchup.
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Expected goals · model says 1.80
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
62%
BTTS: Yes
63%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC that most previews miss.
- 1Hartberg's home matches average 4.4 goals per game this season, the highest in the league.
- 2Wolfsberger have scored just two goals in four away games, but their away matches still see 2.75 goals per game due to defensive lapses.
- 3Four of the last five H2Hs at Hartberg have seen both teams score and over 2.5 goals.
Who do you think wins: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.67
Both teams have season over 2.5 goal rates above 65% (Hartberg 66.7%, Wolfsberger 75%), and the last five matches for both sides average a combined 5.0 goals per game.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.45
Hartberg's home defence (12 conceded in 5) and Wolfsberger's away attack (2 in 4) point to volatility, but the model's draw probability (29%) is marginally above market implied.
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More Bundesliga Predictions
The Case For This TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction
Statistically, this is a mid-table attack meeting the league's weakest away side, but both teams' defensive records and high over 2.5 goal rates suggest a match with above-average goal expectancy. Hartberg's home scoring (2.0 per game) is offset by their porous defence, while Wolfsberger's away attack is blunt, but their matches still trend high-scoring due to defensive frailty.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Wolfsberger have failed to win away, scoring just 0.5 per away match.
Defence
- →Hartberg average 2.0 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per home game.
Match Context
- →Both teams' season over 2.5 goal rates exceed 65%.
🚩 TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for TSV Hartberg and 5.6 for Wolfsberger AC, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
TSV Hartberglast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wolfsberger AClast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hartberg have taken seven points from their last four league matches, scoring 10 times in that span and showing improved attacking output. Wolfsberger, by contrast, have lost three straight league games, scoring just once and conceding 10, and remain winless away from home.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 3.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.8 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
Hartberg have a slight historical edge, winning five of the last ten meetings, with three draws. Recent encounters at Hartberg have been open, with four of the last five featuring both teams on the scoresheet and at least three goals.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
TSV Hartberg wins
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
The model sees marginal value on the draw at 3.5, with a model probability of 29% slightly above the market's 28.6%. Over 2.5 goals also offers a positive expected value, as the model's 64% probability is above the implied 59.9% from the odds. No significant value is found on BTTS markets.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC
- ⚠️Wolfsberger's last five league matches show a sharp attacking drop (0.8 goals per game), increasing risk of a low output.
- ⚠️Hartberg's defensive numbers are poor, but Wolfsberger's away attack is among the league's weakest.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but lineups are not confirmed at time of analysis.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
TSV Hartberg 2–1 Wolfsberger ACThe model projects a 2-1 win for Hartberg, grounded in their superior attacking output (2.0 goals per home game) and Wolfsberger's inability to score on the road. The single strongest data point is Hartberg's 66.7% over 2.5 rate, but if Wolfsberger's attack continues to underperform, the match could fall short of goal expectations.
TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC: Common Questions
Who will win TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Hartberg are favoured with a 44% probability, compared to 27% for Wolfsberger and 29% for the draw. The edge comes from Hartberg's much stronger home attack and Wolfsberger's poor away record.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
The probability for over 2.5 goals is 64%, supported by both teams' high season rates (Hartberg 66.7%, Wolfsberger 75%) and recent match goal averages.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC?
Both teams to score is rated at 61%, reflecting Hartberg's tendency to concede and Wolfsberger's defensive issues, though Wolfsberger's attack has struggled away from home.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.