Auxerre vs Clermont Foot Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Auxerre
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Clermont Foot
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
8.5/10Auxerre Edge Seven-Goal Thriller Against Clermont Despite Late Scare
Auxerre emerged victorious in a pulsating friendly against Clermont Foot, clinching a dramatic 4-3 win in a match that saw momentum swing wildly and a late surge from the visitors. The hosts looked to be cruising after a dominant spell around the hour mark, racing into a 4-0 lead with goals in the 31st, 50th, 53rd, and 59th minutes. However, a red card for Auxerre set the stage for a frantic finale. Clermont Foot capitalized on their numerical advantage, mounting a spirited comeback with three goals in just seven minutes (69', 72', 76'). Despite the pressure, Auxerre held on for the win, surviving a nervy finish in a match that provided no shortage of entertainment and attacking football.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
4 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
31' — Goal
Auxerre open the scoring to take a deserved lead.
50' — Goal
Auxerre double their advantage early in the second half.
53' — Goal
Auxerre make it 3-0, asserting clear control.
59' — Goal
Auxerre score their fourth, seemingly putting the game out of reach.
Red card' — Red Card
Auxerre reduced to 10 men, shifting the momentum.
69' — Goal
Clermont pull one back, beginning their comeback.
72' — Goal
Clermont score again, increasing the pressure on Auxerre.
76' — Goal
Clermont net their third, setting up a tense finale.
Auxerre
Auxerre started brightly and asserted themselves with a clinical attacking display, scoring four times before the hour. Their attacking intent paid dividends as they repeatedly breached the Clermont defense. However, a red card in the second half disrupted their rhythm and left them exposed, forcing a backs-to-the-wall effort in the closing stages as Clermont mounted a comeback.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot struggled to contain Auxerre's attack for much of the match, conceding four goals by the 59th minute. However, they showed impressive resolve and attacking quality in the final 20 minutes, taking full advantage of the extra man to score three times in quick succession. Despite their late rally, the deficit proved too much to overcome.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams approached the match with attacking intent, as evidenced by the seven goals scored. Auxerre's formation allowed them to exploit spaces in Clermont's defense, particularly in wide areas and through quick midfield transitions. Their pressing and combination play paid off handsomely in the first hour. The red card forced Auxerre into a more defensive posture, surrendering possession and territory. Clermont initially struggled to cope with Auxerre's movement but adapted after the sending off, pushing more players forward and utilizing their numerical advantage. Their late goals came from increased pressure and exploiting gaps as Auxerre tired with a man less.
Turning Point
The red card for Auxerre after their fourth goal changed the game's dynamic, giving Clermont the impetus for their late surge.
Man of the Match
Auxerre Forward
Scored the crucial opening goal and led the line with energy, setting the tone for Auxerre's attacking display.
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot: Match Preview
Auxerre approach this friendly off the back of consecutive Ligue 1 victories, but their underlying numbers are less convincing, conceding 2.4 goals per game over their last five. Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have drawn each of their last five Ligue 2 fixtures, with a notably low-scoring profile—just 0.6 goals scored and conceded per match in that span. Both sides have mixed records in pre-season and cup matches, but neither has shown a clear attacking edge.
The statistical matchup points to a low-event contest. Auxerre's attack is averaging 1.4 goals and 5 shots on target per game recently, but Clermont Foot's defence has been resilient, keeping two clean sheets in their last five and conceding only three goals total. Clermont's attack, however, remains blunt, failing to score in two of their last five and averaging fewer than one goal per game on the season. The first half could be especially cagey—Clermont have not scored before the break in any of their last five outings.
With both teams trending heavily under 2.5 goals (Auxerre 60%, Clermont Foot 85.7%), the model expects a controlled, tactical affair. The most likely outcome is a low-scoring draw, with the 1-1 scoreline emerging as the statistical mode. Set-piece output is solid for both (Auxerre 6, Clermont 4.8 corners per game), but neither side's attack is likely to overwhelm. Defensive discipline should keep cards moderate, but a late goal could still swing the result.
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Expected goals · model says 1.00
Expected goals · model says 0.90
Over 2.5 Goals
30%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Auxerre vs Clermont Foot that most previews miss.
- 1Clermont Foot have drawn five consecutive matches, with four of those ending 1-1 or 0-0.
- 2Clermont have not scored a first-half goal in any of their last five matches.
- 3Auxerre's last five have seen both teams score in four matches, but their season under 2.5 rate remains high at 60%.
Who do you think wins: Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Auxerre vs Clermont Foot(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams are trending under 2.5 goals in their season records (Auxerre 40%, Clermont Foot 14% over 2.5), and Clermont Foot's last five have averaged just 1.2 total goals per game.
Read more ↓
Correct Score: 1–1
The 1-1 draw is the statistical mode given both teams' low scoring and conceding rates (Auxerre 1.4 scored/2.4 conceded last 5, Clermont Foot 0.6/0.6), and Clermont have drawn each of their last five.
Read more ↓
More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This Auxerre vs Clermont Foot Prediction
This friendly pairs two sides with contrasting recent form but converging on a low-scoring equilibrium: Auxerre have won their last two, yet Clermont Foot are unbeaten in five, albeit all draws. Both sides have defensive vulnerabilities, but neither attack is producing at a high rate, especially Clermont Foot, who have averaged just 0.6 goals for and against in their last five matches. The statistical shape is that of a low-event contest, with neither side likely to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Clermont Foot's last five matches have all ended in draws, with an average of just 1.2 total goals per game.
Defence
- →Auxerre are scoring 1.4 and conceding 2.4 per game in their last five, but their season average is steadier at 1.8 for and 1.2 against.
Match Context
- →Both teams have a high rate of matches under 2.5 goals this season: 60% for Auxerre, 85.7% for Clermont Foot.
🚩 Auxerre vs Clermont Foot Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Auxerre and 5.2 for Clermont Foot, for an expected total of 10.7. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 74% · Over 10.5: 50%.
How Auxerre and Clermont Foot Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Clermont Footlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Auxerre have found some momentum with back-to-back wins, but their defensive record remains shaky, conceding 12 goals in their last five. Clermont Foot, by contrast, are on a run of five straight draws, all tight affairs, and have conceded just three goals in that span. The form lines suggest Auxerre are more volatile, while Clermont Foot are consistently hard to beat but struggle to win.
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Auxerre vs Clermont Foot
Clermont Foot have the historical edge, winning five of the last ten meetings and losing just twice. Draws are frequent, including a 1-1 result in their most recent Ligue 1 encounter. Tight scorelines are common, with six of the last ten matches producing two goals or fewer.
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Auxerre wins
3
Draws
5
Clermont Foot wins
Things to Watch: Auxerre vs Clermont Foot
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value edges cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️Standings and venue data are missing, limiting context on home/away splits.
- ⚠️As a friendly, motivational and rotation factors are unpredictable.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Auxerre 1–1 Clermont FootThe model calls this as a 1-1 draw, anchored by Clermont Foot's remarkable run of five straight draws and their defensive solidity (0.6 goals conceded per game last five). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Auxerre's recent attacking uptick at home (seven goals in three home games) breaks through a Clermont side that has yet to be tested away this season.
Auxerre vs Clermont Foot: Common Questions
Who will win Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
The model gives Auxerre a 33% chance of victory, Clermont Foot a 28% chance, and the draw is most likely at 39%. With Clermont drawing each of their last five, a stalemate is the statistical favourite.
Will Auxerre vs Clermont Foot be under or over 2.5 goals?
There's a 66% probability of under 2.5 goals, based on both teams' season records (Auxerre 60%, Clermont Foot 85.7% under 2.5) and Clermont's recent run of low-scoring draws.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Clermont Foot?
It's close to even: 49% for both teams to score, 51% against. Auxerre have seen BTTS in four of their last five, but Clermont's defensive record keeps this market finely balanced.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Auxerre vs Clermont Foot: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.