Auxerre vs Le Mans Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Le Mans
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+9% edge)
Recommended Bets: Auxerre vs Le Mans
Auxerre vs Le Mans: Match Preview
Auxerre and Le Mans meet with both sides desperate to stem the flow of goals conceded and climb out of the bottom three. Auxerre have lost four of their opening six, but their home form is less bleak, with two wins from three at the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps. Le Mans arrive with just one win in seven and a three-match losing streak, but have managed to score in all but one league game this season.
The statistical profile points to a high-scoring contest: Auxerre's matches average exactly four goals per game, with 83% finishing over 2.5, while Le Mans are only marginally less wild at 3.57 goals per match and an 86% over 2.5 rate. Both attacks are functional (Auxerre 1.33 goals per game, Le Mans 1.43), but defences are leaky—Auxerre have kept just one clean sheet, Le Mans none. Both teams have seen BTTS in four of their last five, and neither side has shown the discipline to shut games down early, with a combined six first-half goals and eight second-half goals across their last five each.
Given the near-identical records, home advantage and slightly higher shot volume for Auxerre (8.4 shots, 3.8 on target per last five), the model narrowly favours the hosts but sees significant draw potential given both teams' defensive frailty and inability to hold leads. Expect a match with multiple swings, a high chance of both teams scoring, and little separating the sides at the final whistle.
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Expected goals · model says 1.70
Expected goals · model says 1.40
Over 2.5 Goals
60%
BTTS: Yes
62%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Auxerre vs Le Mans Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Auxerre vs Le Mans that most previews miss.
- 1Auxerre's matches have finished over 2.5 goals in 83% of league games this season (5 of 6).
- 2Le Mans have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their 7 league matches, conceding at least once in every outing.
- 3Across the last five league games for both teams, BTTS has landed in 4 out of 5.
Who do you think wins: Auxerre vs Le Mans?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Auxerre vs Le Mans(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.54
The model assigns a 32% probability to the draw (implied odds 3.13), compared to the market's 3.4 (implied 29.4%), with both teams averaging over two goals conceded per game and showing little separation in form or league standing.
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The Case For This Auxerre vs Le Mans Prediction
Statistically, this is a meeting of two of Ligue 1's most porous defences, with both Auxerre and Le Mans conceding over two goals per game and sitting side by side near the foot of the table. The expected goal environment is high, but neither side has shown the defensive control or attacking efficiency to pull clear, making a closely-fought, high-variance contest likely.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Auxerre have conceded 16 goals in 6 league matches (2.67 per game), the worst defensive record in the division.
- →Le Mans have failed to keep a clean sheet all season, conceding 15 in 7 (2.14 per game).
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in more than 80% of their league matches.
🚩 Auxerre vs Le Mans Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.2 corners for Auxerre and 3.6 for Le Mans, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (62%). Over 8.5: 51% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Auxerre and Le Mans Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Auxerre vs Le Mans Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Le Manslast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Auxerre have alternated between heavy defeats and narrow wins, with their last five showing three victories but two losses by three-goal margins. Le Mans are on a three-game losing streak and have just one win in seven, but have managed to score in all but one league outing. Both sides are conceding heavily and struggling for consistency.
Auxerre vs Le Mans — Last 7 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 83.33% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Auxerre vs Le Mans
Auxerre have the edge historically, winning three of the last five meetings, including both most recent home fixtures. However, the last competitive clash was in 2020, so the relevance of these results is limited given squad turnover and league changes.
Auxerre vs Le Mans Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
Auxerre wins
1
Draws
1
Le Mans wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Auxerre vs Le Mans
The draw is the standout value at current odds (3.4), with the model's 32% probability implying a smaller margin than the market. Other markets, such as BTTS and over/under 2.5, are closely aligned with bookmaker prices, offering little edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Auxerre vs Le Mans
- ⚠️Both teams' defensive records suggest volatility in scorelines, raising the risk of outlier results.
- ⚠️Recent form is erratic for both sides, with neither stringing together consistent performances.
- ⚠️Small sample size on corners and cards data limits confidence in those market predictions.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Auxerre 2–1 Le MansThe model projects a 2-1 Auxerre win, driven by the fact that both teams concede over two goals per game and have a combined clean sheet rate of just 8%. The most plausible way this goes wrong is if neither side can maintain attacking efficiency, leading to a lower-scoring draw or an error-driven goalfest.
Auxerre vs Le Mans: Common Questions
Who will win Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Auxerre are marginal favourites at 41%, with Le Mans on 27% and the draw a strong 32%. Both teams have identical points and similar defensive records, so the match is expected to be close.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Yes is favoured at 61% probability, with both teams seeing BTTS in four of their last five league matches and neither defence showing reliability.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Auxerre vs Le Mans?
Over 2.5 goals is rated at 62%, with both teams' league matches finishing above that line in more than 80% of cases this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Auxerre vs Le Mans: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 18 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.