Auxerre vs Nice Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
Full Time
2 - 1
AI predicted 1 - 1
Nice
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.4(+9% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Auxerre Edge Nice in Tight Ligue 1 Battle at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps
Auxerre came from behind to secure a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Nice in a tense Ligue 1 encounter at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. The visitors struck first through Mohamed Ali Cho in the 9th minute, but the home side rallied, equalizing before halftime and ultimately sealing the win midway through the second half. Both teams showed attacking intent, with Auxerre edging possession (52%) and racking up 12 shots, while Nice remained dangerous on the break and managed 5 shots on target from their 9 attempts. The match was characterized by Auxerre's relentless pressure, evidenced by their 10 corners, and Nice's disciplined defensive structure in a 5-4-1 formation. Ultimately, Auxerre's persistence paid off, allowing them to claim all three points.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
9' — Goal
Mohamed Ali Cho finishes off a swift Nice attack to give the visitors an early lead.
27' — Goal
Sékou Mara levels for Auxerre after sustained pressure and a well-worked move.
70' — Goal
Auxerre take the lead with a second goal, capitalizing on a set-piece situation.
77' — Yellow Card
Auxerre's only booking of the match as the hosts look to protect their advantage.
Auxerre
Auxerre responded well after conceding early, showing composure and determination to overturn the deficit. Their 4-3-3 formation allowed them to control the midfield and utilize width effectively, as reflected in their 52% possession and 10 corners. The attacking trio, led by Sékou Mara and Lassine Sinayoko, consistently tested the Nice defense, and the midfield provided crucial support both offensively and defensively.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Nice
Nice began brightly, capitalizing on an early chance to take the lead through Mohamed Ali Cho. Their 5-4-1 formation provided defensive solidity and allowed for quick transitions, but they struggled to maintain attacking momentum as the match progressed. Despite managing 5 shots on target, Nice were unable to convert further chances, and their lack of attacking support for Cho ultimately cost them.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Auxerre's 4-3-3 setup allowed them to dominate the flanks and overload the midfield, especially after falling behind. Their full-backs pushed high, contributing to the team's 10 corners and sustained pressure in the attacking third. Nice, deploying a 5-4-1, initially frustrated Auxerre and looked dangerous on the counter, but their deep defensive line eventually invited pressure. The lack of width and support for Mohamed Ali Cho became apparent as the match wore on, limiting Nice's attacking options. Set pieces proved decisive, with Auxerre's aerial threat and delivery from wide areas leading to the winning goal.
Turning Point
Auxerre's second goal in the 70th minute, which shifted momentum decisively and forced Nice to chase the game.
Man of the Match
Sékou Mara
His equalizing goal and relentless attacking presence inspired Auxerre's comeback.
🎮 Prediction Playground
Think the model has it wrong? Nudge each team's expected goals and watch every probability react — then simulate the match and see what happens.
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
15%
BTTS: Yes
24%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Auxerre vs Nice Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Auxerre vs Nice?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Auxerre vs Nice(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.4
Both teams have drawn 10 matches this season and recent form for both sides is heavy on draws. The model probability for a draw is substantially higher than the implied odds, providing a positive expected value.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.18
Both teams have low scoring averages and 7 of their last 10 H2H meetings have finished under 2.5 goals. However, the edge is marginal due to the short odds.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Auxerre vs Nice Prediction
This is a clash between two sides struggling in the lower half of Ligue 1, with Auxerre and Nice both fighting to avoid the drop. Both teams are in patchy form, but recent results suggest a cagey, low-scoring affair is likely. With neither side showing a clear attacking edge and both frequently drawing, a stalemate is a strong possibility.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Recent H2H history is draw-heavy and low scoring.
Defence
- →Both sides average below 1.2 goals per game and have poor clean sheet rates.
- →Nice have conceded more goals overall but have improved defensively in recent matches (0.6 conceded per last 5).
Match Context
- →Both teams have drawn 10 matches this season.
- →Auxerre's home record (5-4-7) is only marginally better than Nice's away record (3-3-10).
- →Key creative players missing for Auxerre (Faivre, El Azzouzi, Oppegard).
🚩 Auxerre vs Nice Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.6 corners for Auxerre and 5.5 for Nice, for an expected total of 11.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (67%). Over 8.5: 78% · Over 10.5: 55%.
How Auxerre and Nice Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Auxerre vs Nice Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Nicelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Auxerre come into this match off a morale-boosting 3-1 home win over Angers, but prior to that had not won in four, with three draws and a loss. Nice are unbeaten in five in all competitions, but four of those have been draws, highlighting their struggles to turn performances into wins. Both teams are showing resilience but lack a cutting edge.
Auxerre vs Nice — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
What History Says: Auxerre vs Nice
Historically, this fixture is close, with draws and narrow wins the norm. Neither team has dominated, and the last three meetings have produced a win each and a draw, with low scores. This trend supports a prediction of a low-scoring, evenly matched contest.
Auxerre vs Nice Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Auxerre wins
4
Draws
3
Nice wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Auxerre vs Nice
The draw is the standout value at current odds, with the model's probability notably higher than the market's implied chance. The under 2.5 goals market is highly likely but priced very short, offering little value. BTTS 'no' is also overpriced by the market, making it unattractive despite a reasonable probability.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Auxerre vs Nice
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, corners) are missing for several recent games.
- ⚠️Both teams have multiple injury absences, especially in midfield for Auxerre.
- ⚠️Low scoring probability means a single early goal could open the game up unexpectedly.
- ⚠️Limited data on set piece threat due to missing corners/fouls for some matches.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Auxerre vs Nice: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 10 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.