Auxerre vs Nice Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Nice
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.2(+15% edge)
Match Result
7.5/10Auxerre Upsets Nice With Gritty 1-0 Win at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
Auxerre pulled off a hard-fought 1-0 victory over Nice at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, overcoming a significant possession deficit to claim all three points. Despite Nice controlling 68% of possession and registering 12 shots, it was Auxerre who made their chances count, netting the decisive goal in the 74th minute. The home side's disciplined defensive display and clinical finishing proved the difference on a night when Nice's attacking efforts were repeatedly thwarted. The match saw Nice dominate much of the play, racking up 8 corners and dictating tempo, but they struggled to break down Auxerre's resilient back three. Auxerre, meanwhile, were efficient on the break, testing Y. Diouf with 7 shots on target from just 11 attempts. The single goal was enough to secure a memorable win, as Auxerre's tactical discipline and opportunism outshone Nice's possession-based approach.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
74' — Goal
R. Labeau Lascary scores for Auxerre, finishing off a swift counter-attack.
55' — Yellow Card
Auxerre's A. Piedfort cautioned for a tactical foul to halt a Nice break.
60' — Yellow Card
Nice's A. Witsel booked for dissent after a midfield tussle.
Auxerre
Auxerre delivered a textbook display of defensive organization and counter-attacking efficiency. Lining up in a 3-4-3, they absorbed sustained pressure from Nice, limiting the visitors to just 4 shots on target. The midfield duo of A. Piedfort and K. Danois worked tirelessly to shield the defense and launch quick transitions, while the front three capitalized on rare opportunities. Their solitary goal in the 74th minute was a testament to their persistence and ability to strike when it mattered most.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Nice
Nice dominated the ball and dictated the tempo with 68% possession, but ultimately lacked a cutting edge in the final third. Their 3-4-2-1 formation allowed for fluid buildup and width, but Auxerre's compact shape frustrated their attackers. Despite winning 8 corners and firing 12 shots, only 4 were on target, and they failed to convert any of their sustained pressure into goals. Defensively, Nice were largely untroubled until the decisive Auxerre attack.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Auxerre set up in a compact 3-4-3, prioritizing defensive solidity and quick transitions. The wing-backs, L. Sy and F. Oppegård, dropped deep to form a back five when out of possession, frustrating Nice's attempts to penetrate centrally. The midfield duo acted as a shield, while the front three pressed selectively, springing forward on the break. Nice, in their 3-4-2-1, sought to overload wide areas and stretch Auxerre, but their attacks often fizzled out against a disciplined low block. The visitors' high line left them exposed to counters, which Auxerre exploited for the game's only goal. Set pieces were a recurring threat for Nice, but Auxerre defended them with composure.
Turning Point
R. Labeau Lascary's 74th-minute goal, which came against the run of play and forced Nice to chase the game.
Man of the Match
M. Diop
Produced a series of crucial saves to preserve Auxerre's clean sheet and secure the win.
Auxerre vs Nice: Match Preview
Auxerre come into this fixture bottom of the table, having lost all three of their opening Ligue 1 matches and conceding a league-high 11 goals. Nice have also struggled, sitting 17th with just one point from two games and no goals scored, but have at least shown some defensive solidity with a clean sheet on opening day. Both sides are under pressure to reverse their early-season fortunes, with Auxerre’s leaky defence and Nice’s blunt attack the key narratives.
Statistically, this matchup pits the league’s worst defence (Auxerre, 3.67 goals conceded per game) against the least productive attack (Nice, 0 goals from 2 matches). Auxerre’s home record offers little comfort (1-3 loss to Angers), while Nice’s only away game ended in a 0-3 defeat. The last five H2Hs have produced three draws and a clear under trend, with only one match seeing more than two goals. Set-piece threat and card rates are both moderate, with neither side showing a significant edge in corners or discipline.
The model expects a low-scoring, evenly-matched contest, with the most likely outcome a 1-1 draw. Both teams’ weaknesses cancel out their respective strengths: Auxerre’s attack is functional but not prolific, while Nice’s defence is more reliable than their attack. The probability distribution points to a tight game where neither side is likely to dominate, and the draw offers the clearest value given the underlying rates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Auxerre vs Nice Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Auxerre vs Nice that most previews miss.
- 1Nice have failed to score in four of their last five competitive matches across all competitions.
- 2Auxerre’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 100% of their Ligue 1 fixtures, but Nice’s have only done so in 50%.
- 3Across the last five head-to-heads, three have ended 1-1 or 0-0, with only one exceeding two total goals.
Who do you think wins: Auxerre vs Nice?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Auxerre vs Nice(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.24
Both Auxerre and Nice have struggled for wins (Auxerre LLL, Nice LD), and the model gives a 36% chance of a draw versus 31% implied by the odds. Both sides are among the lowest scorers and have defensive vulnerabilities, making a stalemate the value play.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 1.93
Nice have failed to score in both Ligue 1 matches this season, and BTTS has not landed in any of their last five competitive games. The model rates 'No' at 57% versus 51% implied by the price.
Read more ↓
More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Auxerre vs Nice Prediction
Auxerre’s defensive collapse (11 conceded in three Ligue 1 matches) faces a Nice side yet to score in the league, setting up a contest defined by low attacking output and high concession rates. The underlying numbers suggest a low-scoring, cagey affair, with both teams desperate to avoid further early-season setbacks.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Auxerre have conceded 3.67 goals per game so far, the league's worst defensive rate.
Match Context
- →Nice have failed to score in their opening two Ligue 1 matches and have not scored in four of their last five competitive games.
- →The last five head-to-heads have produced three draws and just one match with over 2.5 goals.
🚩 Auxerre vs Nice Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.7 corners for Auxerre and 5.6 for Nice, for an expected total of 11.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (69%). Over 8.5: 79% · Over 10.5: 57%.
How Auxerre and Nice Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Auxerre vs Nice Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nicelast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Auxerre have lost three straight Ligue 1 matches, conceding 11 goals in the process, and their only recent win came in a friendly. Nice have also failed to win in the league, drawing once and losing heavily to Paris FC, and have not scored in either league outing. Both teams are searching for their first league win and have yet to establish any positive momentum.
Auxerre vs Nice — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
Strengths
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Auxerre vs Nice
The head-to-head record is remarkably balanced, with three draws in the last five meetings and each side taking a win apiece. Notably, only one of those five matches produced more than two goals, and the most common result has been a 1-1 draw. Auxerre have edged the last two home H2Hs, but margins have been narrow.
Auxerre vs Nice Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
3
Auxerre wins
4
Draws
3
Nice wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Auxerre vs Nice
The model finds the draw at 3.20 to be the standout value, with a 36% probability versus 31% implied by the market. There is also a smaller edge on 'Both Teams to Score – No', with the model’s 57% probability outstripping the 51% implied by the available odds. Both value angles are rooted in the teams’ poor attacking records and recent head-to-head trends.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Auxerre vs Nice
- ⚠️Very small Ligue 1 sample for Nice (only two matches); true attacking level may not be reflected.
- ⚠️Auxerre's defensive numbers are inflated by a 5-2 defeat at Lens; regression possible.
- ⚠️Early season volatility and lack of injuries means lineups could shift, impacting model confidence.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Auxerre 1–1 NiceThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, with the strongest supporting data point being Nice’s inability to score in their opening Ligue 1 games combined with Auxerre’s defensive frailty. The main risk is that Auxerre’s defensive numbers are distorted by a single heavy defeat, and if Nice’s attack clicks, the match could tip either way.
Auxerre vs Nice: Common Questions
Who will win Auxerre vs Nice?
The model gives Auxerre a 37% chance to win, Nice a 27% chance, and the draw is most likely at 36%. Both teams have struggled for results, so a stalemate is the statistical favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Nice?
Our model rates 'Both Teams to Score – No' at 57%, reflecting Nice’s run of four scoreless outings in their last five matches and Auxerre’s inconsistent attack.
Is Auxerre vs Nice likely to have over or under 2.5 goals?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59% probability, despite Auxerre’s high concession rate, because Nice’s attack has yet to score in Ligue 1 and recent H2Hs have been low-scoring.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Auxerre vs Nice: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 5 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.