Nice vs Rennes Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Nice
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Rennes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Rennes Win
@ 2.3(+6% edge)
Recommended Bets: Nice vs Rennes
Nice vs Rennes: Match Preview
Nice enter this fixture eighth in Ligue 1, unbeaten at home but with only two wins from four at the Allianz Riviera. Their recent form is mixed (WLWWL), but they've found their scoring touch lately, averaging 1.4 goals per game over their last five. Rennes, sixth in the table, boast the league's second-best attack at 2.14 goals per game and have scored 15 in seven, but their away record is patchy—one win and two losses, conceding nine in three.
The statistical matchup points to goals. Rennes' attack is generating 14.8 shots and 6.2 on target per game over the last five, while Nice's defence has managed just a 12.5% clean sheet rate all season. Both teams have seen four of their last five end with both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Nice and 86% of Rennes' league games. Set pieces could be influential, with both sides averaging over five corners per match recently, and discipline may play a part—Nice are averaging 2.8 yellows per game in their last five.
The model rates Rennes' attack as the decisive factor, projecting a 2-1 away win. However, the volatility of both defences and the historical trend for away wins in this fixture mean a high-scoring draw or a Nice upset are plausible alternatives. The most robust statistical signal is the high probability of both teams finding the net.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.95
Over 2.5 Goals
67%
BTTS: Yes
67%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Nice vs Rennes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Nice vs Rennes that most previews miss.
- 1Rennes' away matches average 4.67 total goals per game, the highest in the top half.
- 2Nice have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five matches.
- 3The last 10 H2H meetings have produced only one draw, with the away side winning three of the last five.
Who do you think wins: Nice vs Rennes?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Nice vs Rennes(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Rennes Win@ 2.39
Rennes average 2.14 goals scored per game and 1.8 over their last five, while Nice concede 1.25 per game and have just a 12.5% clean sheet rate; Rennes' away attack (5 goals in 3 away) faces a Nice side winless at home in two of four, with the model rating Rennes at 46% win probability versus 43.5% implied.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.48
Both sides have seen BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, and Rennes have conceded 9 in 3 away league games (3.0 per game), while Nice have only failed to score once in their last five.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Nice vs Rennes Prediction
This fixture pairs Nice's moderate home record (2W 2D 0L, 5:3 goals) against a Rennes side that has been prolific but leaky, especially away (1W 0D 2L, 5:9 goals). Rennes' attack is among the league's most productive at 2.14 goals per game, but their away defence concedes 3.0 per match, suggesting a high-scoring environment. Nice, meanwhile, average just 1.0 scored and 1.25 conceded per game, but have found some recent attacking form with 1.4 goals per game over the last five. Statistically, Rennes' attack (14.8 shots, 6.2 on target per last five) is likely to test a Nice defence with only a 12.5% clean sheet rate this season. Both sides have seen 4 of their last 5 matches finish with both teams scoring, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Nice and 86% of Rennes' league games. Set pieces could play a role: both average over 5 corners per match recently, and discipline is a factor, with Nice picking up 2.8 yellows per game in the last five. The model expects Rennes' superior attacking rates to edge the contest, projecting a 2-1 away win. The most likely deviation is a high-scoring draw, given both teams' BTTS and over 2.5 trends, but Rennes' away goal output and Nice's defensive frailties tip the balance.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Rennes average 2.14 goals scored per game, the second-highest in Ligue 1.
Defence
- →Nice have kept just one clean sheet in eight league games (12.5%).
- →Rennes' away matches average 4.67 total goals, with 9 conceded in 3.
🚩 Nice vs Rennes Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4 corners for Nice and 4.8 for Rennes, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Nice and Rennes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Nice vs Rennes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Nicelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Renneslast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Scoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nice have won three of their last five but remain inconsistent, with a home record of two wins and two draws from four. Rennes have been prolific in attack, averaging 2.2 goals per game over their last five, but their away defence has been exposed, conceding nine in three league trips.
Nice vs Rennes — Last 8 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 85.71% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Nice vs Rennes
Head-to-head meetings have been competitive, with nine wins and just one draw in the last ten encounters. The away side has won three of the last five, including Rennes' 4-0 win at Nice last season, but Nice had previously won three straight at home.
Nice vs Rennes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Nice wins
1
Draws
4
Rennes wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Nice vs Rennes
The model finds the greatest value on Rennes to win at 2.30 (46% model probability vs 43.5% implied), with a smaller edge on BTTS yes at 1.50. No value is found on under 2.5 goals, where the market is more pessimistic than the model's 31% probability.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Nice vs Rennes
- ⚠️Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five matches, increasing volatility.
- ⚠️Rennes' away defence is a liability (3.0 conceded per away game), so a Nice home win cannot be discounted.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but starting lineups are not confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Nice 1–2 RennesThe model projects a 2-1 win for Rennes, driven by their 2.14 goals-per-game attack and Nice's low clean sheet rate (12.5%). The likeliest way this goes wrong is if Rennes' away defensive issues (3.0 goals conceded per away game) allow Nice to take advantage and force a high-scoring draw.
Nice vs Rennes: Common Questions
Who will win Nice vs Rennes?
Rennes are given a 46% chance of victory by the model, compared to 26% for Nice and 28% for the draw. Rennes' superior attacking rates and Nice's defensive record tip the balance in the visitors' favour.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Rennes?
Yes is rated at 68% probability, with both sides seeing BTTS in four of their last five matches and Rennes conceding nine in three away league games.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Nice vs Rennes?
The model gives a 69% probability for over 2.5 goals, supported by both teams' recent trends (Nice 62.5%, Rennes 85.7% over 2.5 in Ligue 1 this season) and high shot volumes.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Nice vs Rennes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 24 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.