Auxerre vs Rennes Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
Full Time
0 - 3
AI predicted 0 - 1
Rennes
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
@ 1.2(+3% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Rennes Run Riot in Auxerre With First-Half Blitz
Rennes delivered a clinical first-half performance to sweep aside Auxerre 3-0 at the Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. The visitors struck three times before the break, with goals in the 20th, 22nd, and 45th minutes, effectively ending the contest before halftime. Auxerre, despite some spirited moments, struggled to match Rennes' intensity and composure in both boxes. The statistics tell the story: Rennes dominated possession with 57% and peppered Donovan Léon's goal with 12 shots, 7 of which were on target. Auxerre, meanwhile, managed just 2 shots on target from 11 attempts and were unable to break down a disciplined Rennes backline. The match was also a feisty affair, with 23 fouls and five yellow cards, but it was Rennes' ruthless attacking edge in the opening period that proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
0 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/2 hit
Key Moments
20' — Goal
Rennes open the scoring, capitalizing on a defensive lapse from Auxerre.
22' — Goal
Rennes double their lead just two minutes later, piling pressure on the hosts.
45' — Goal
Rennes strike again on the stroke of halftime, effectively sealing the win.
52' — Yellow Card
Auxerre pick up their only booking as frustration grows.
65' — Yellow Card
Rennes receive their third yellow card as the game becomes increasingly physical.
Auxerre
Auxerre started brightly but were quickly undone by Rennes' rapid-fire double midway through the first half. The hosts struggled to regain their composure after conceding twice in two minutes, and a third goal just before halftime left them with a mountain to climb. Despite some attacking intent, Auxerre's 11 shots yielded only 2 on target, and they rarely looked like breaching Brice Samba's goal. Their midfield trio, led by Elisha Owusu, worked hard but lacked the creative spark needed to unlock Rennes' defense.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Rennes
Rennes produced a scintillating first-half display, scoring three goals in 25 minutes to put the match beyond doubt. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to control the midfield and exploit space between the lines, with Sebastian Szymański and Mousa Tamari pulling the strings. Defensively, Rennes were robust, conceding just 2 shots on target and dealing well with Auxerre's sporadic attacks. Although they picked up four yellow cards in a physical encounter, their attacking quality and game management stood out.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Auxerre lined up in a 4-3-3, seeking to press high and use width, but Rennes' 4-2-3-1 allowed them to outnumber the hosts in midfield and transition quickly through the central areas. The visitors' pressing forced Auxerre into mistakes, particularly in the build-up to the first two goals. Rennes' wide players, especially Mousa Tamari and Arnaud Nordin, stretched the play and created overloads, while Szymański orchestrated attacks from the number 10 role. Auxerre's attempts to chase the game after halftime saw them commit more bodies forward, but Rennes' defensive shape held firm. The introduction of substitutes did little to alter the tactical balance, with Rennes content to manage their lead and hit on the break. Set pieces yielded little for either side, as both defenses dealt well with aerial threats.
Turning Point
Rennes' second goal in the 22nd minute, coming so soon after the opener, shattered Auxerre's confidence and set the tone for the rest of the match.
Man of the Match
Sebastian Szymański
Pulled the strings in midfield, instrumental in Rennes' first-half dominance and involved in the key attacking moves.
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 0.85
Over 2.5 Goals
15%
BTTS: Yes
23%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Auxerre vs Rennes Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Auxerre vs Rennes?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Auxerre vs Rennes(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.2
Both teams have low recent scoring rates (Auxerre 0.6, Rennes 0.8 goals per last 5), with Auxerre failing to score in 4 of last 5 and Rennes failing to score in 3 of last 5. Both have identical season clean sheet rates (22.7%), but Auxerre's attack is among the weakest in Ligue 1. Under 2.5 goals has value and aligns with recent trends.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.3
Auxerre's home games and Rennes' away games both show high draw rates, and H2H history is draw-heavy (4/10). Both teams are defensively cautious recently, and Rennes have drawn 4 of 11 away. Odds offer some value.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Auxerre vs Rennes Prediction
This is a clash between a struggling Auxerre side fighting relegation and a Rennes team with European ambitions but recent inconsistency. Auxerre have shown defensive resilience lately, conceding just 0.6 goals per game in their last 5, but their attack is blunt, with only one goal scored in that span. Rennes ended a four-game losing streak with a strong win over PSG, but their away form remains patchy and their defense has been leaky, especially on the road (23 conceded in 11 away). The H2H record is balanced and draw-heavy, and both teams' recent matches have been low-scoring. Expect a tense, cagey affair with few clear chances.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Auxerre have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- →Head-to-head is even, with 4 draws in the last 10.
- →Recent form: Auxerre WDDLL, Rennes WLLLL.
Defence
- →Rennes have conceded 23 goals in 11 away games this season.
- →Both teams have identical season clean sheet rates (22.7%).
Match Context
- →Auxerre's home record is poor (3W 2D 6L, 10 GF/12 GA).
- →Rennes' away record is inconsistent (3W 4D 4L, 12 GF/23 GA).
🚩 Auxerre vs Rennes Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Auxerre and 5.8 for Rennes, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How Auxerre and Rennes Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Auxerre vs Rennes Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Renneslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Auxerre vs Rennes — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 67.74% of games this season
What History Says: Auxerre vs Rennes
Auxerre vs Rennes Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Auxerre wins
4
Draws
4
Rennes wins
Things to Watch: Auxerre vs Rennes
- ⚠️Lack of detailed player stats for Auxerre's last 5 matches increases uncertainty.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of prediction.
- ⚠️Rennes' recent win over PSG may signal a form uptick not fully captured by averages.
- ⚠️Auxerre's last win was against a bottom side (Metz), which may overstate improvement.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Auxerre vs Rennes: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 February 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.