Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Predictions
Ligue 1 · France
Auxerre
Full Time
3 - 0
AI predicted 0 - 1
Stade Brestois 29
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 3.15(+9% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Auxerre Stun Brest 3-0 Despite Red Card in Commanding Home Display
Auxerre produced a statement performance at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, dispatching high-flying Stade Brestois 29 with a comprehensive 3-0 victory. The hosts took the initiative early, opening the scoring in the 24th minute and never relinquishing control, even after being reduced to ten men. Despite Brest enjoying 56% possession, they struggled to penetrate Auxerre's disciplined defensive lines and mustered just two shots on target all evening. Auxerre's efficiency in front of goal and resilience after a second-half sending off proved decisive. The home side struck again in the 58th and 70th minutes to seal the result, while Brest's frustration was evident in the four yellow cards they collected. The result keeps Auxerre's hopes alive in Ligue 1 and serves as a wake-up call for Brest, who failed to capitalize on their numerical advantage.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
0 - 1
Actual
3 - 0
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
24' — Goal
Auxerre open the scoring, capitalizing on an early spell of pressure.
58' — Goal
Auxerre double their lead with a well-worked team move.
70' — Goal
Auxerre seal the win with their third goal, punishing Brest's high line.
Second half' — Red Card
Auxerre reduced to ten men, but maintain their composure and defensive shape.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Brest pick up four yellow cards as frustration mounts in the second half.
Auxerre
Auxerre delivered a near-flawless display, combining clinical finishing with defensive solidity. Despite having less of the ball (44% possession), they were far more incisive in attack, registering 11 shots with 7 on target and converting three of their chances. The midfield provided excellent support both offensively and defensively, while the backline remained organized even after going down to ten men. Their ability to maintain composure and punish Brest on the break was a testament to their tactical discipline and determination.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Stade Brestois 29
Brest controlled possession for large spells (56%) but were unable to translate their dominance into meaningful opportunities, managing only two shots on target from nine attempts. Their attacking midfield trio struggled to break down Auxerre's compact shape, and frustration crept in as evidenced by four yellow cards. Even after gaining a numerical advantage, Brest lacked the creativity and urgency required to mount a comeback, ultimately succumbing to Auxerre's counter-attacking threat.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Auxerre lined up in a 4-4-1-1, focusing on compactness and quick transitions. Their midfield quartet worked tirelessly to shield the back four and spring forward in numbers when opportunities arose. The lone striker was supported ably by the second line, exploiting spaces left by Brest's attacking full-backs. After the red card, Auxerre shifted to an even more defensive posture, yet remained dangerous on the counter. Brest deployed a 4-2-3-1, aiming to control possession and dictate tempo. However, their attacking midfielders struggled to find space between the lines, and their full-backs were often caught out by Auxerre's direct play. Brest's inability to adapt tactically after going a man up was evident, as they failed to stretch the ten-man hosts or create overloads in wide areas.
Turning Point
Auxerre's second goal in the 58th minute, which gave them a commanding lead and the confidence to see out the match even after the red card.
Man of the Match
Lassine Sinayoko
Led the line superbly, scored a vital goal, and was a constant threat to Brest's defense.
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Expected goals · model says 0.50
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
13%
BTTS: Yes
21%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.15
Both teams have low attacking output and high recent draw rates. Auxerre are struggling to score, while Brest have tightened up defensively. The probability of a draw is higher than the odds imply.
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BTTS: No@ 1.17
Auxerre have failed to score in 3 of their last 5, and Brest have 3 clean sheets in their last 5. Both teams' recent matches trend heavily to BTTS 'no'.
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More Ligue 1 Predictions
The Case For This Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction
This is a low-scoring clash between an Auxerre side desperate for points at home and a Brest team with a solid recent defensive record. Auxerre's attack is blunt, with just 19 goals in 26 games and only 1 goal scored in their last 3. Brest, while not prolific away, have been difficult to break down recently, conceding just 3 in their last 5. Both teams' recent games have been tight, with under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no' landing frequently. The most likely outcome is a narrow Brest win or a draw, with very few goals expected.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Auxerre have scored only 1 goal in their last 3 matches and failed to score in 3 of their last 5.
- →Brest's away record is weak (3W 3D 7L, 14:23 GF:GA), but recent form is improved.
Attack
- →H2H history is slightly in Brest's favor (5 wins in last 10), with several low-scoring games.
Defence
- →Brest have 3 clean sheets in their last 5 and have conceded just 0.6 goals per game in that span.
- →Both teams average under 1.4 goals conceded per game across the season.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Auxerre's home record is poor (3W 3D 7L, 10:15 GF:GA).
- →Both teams' over 2.5 goal percentages are below 50%.
🚩 Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Auxerre and 4.3 for Stade Brestois 29, for an expected total of 9.1. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (57%). Over 8.5: 56% · Over 10.5: 31%.
How Auxerre and Stade Brestois 29 Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Auxerrelast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Stade Brestois 29last 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29
Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29 Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Auxerre wins
3
Draws
5
Stade Brestois 29 wins
Things to Watch: Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29
- ⚠️Some match stats (shots, possession, etc) are missing for several recent games, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Auxerre's attack is inconsistent and could improve unexpectedly due to relegation pressure.
- ⚠️Brest's away form is historically poor, though recent defensive improvement noted.
- ⚠️Market odds for under 2.5 and BTTS 'no' are very short, limiting value.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Auxerre vs Stade Brestois 29: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 16 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.