Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Bahia
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Vasco DA Gama
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2(+24% edge)
Match Result
6.3/10Stalemate in Salvador: Bahia and Vasco da Gama Share the Spoils in Goalless Draw
Bahia and Vasco da Gama played out a tightly contested 0-0 draw at Arena Fonte Nova, with both sides showing flashes of attacking intent but ultimately lacking the clinical edge to break the deadlock. Despite a lively atmosphere and a match that ebbed and flowed, neither team managed to convert their chances, as both goalkeepers and defensive units stood firm. Bahia edged possession with 51% and fired 11 shots (2 on target), while Vasco da Gama responded with 14 attempts of their own, three of which tested the home keeper. The match saw a handful of yellow cards and tactical tweaks, but clear-cut opportunities were at a premium, leaving both teams to rue missed chances and settle for a point apiece.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
0 - 0
💰 Bet Results2/2 hit
Key Moments
23' — Yellow Card
Bahia's Rodrigo Nestor booked for a late challenge, setting the tone for a combative midfield battle.
37' — Yellow Card
Vasco's Tchê Tchê shown a yellow for persistent fouling as Bahia pressed forward.
52' — Shot on Target
Brenner forces a smart save from Ronaldo, Vasco's best chance of the match.
68' — Yellow Card
Vasco's Paulo Henrique cautioned after a tactical foul to halt a Bahia counter.
75' — Shot on Target
Willian José tests Léo Jardim with a close-range effort, but the keeper stands tall.
Bahia
Bahia started with a classic 4-4-2, seeking to control the midfield and supply their front two, Willian José and Alejo Véliz. They enjoyed marginally more possession and looked to build patiently, but struggled to create high-quality chances in the final third. Their two shots on target rarely troubled Léo Jardim in the Vasco goal, and while they maintained defensive discipline, Bahia's attack lacked the incisiveness needed to secure all three points.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Vasco DA Gama
Vasco da Gama, lining up in a 4-2-3-1, looked to exploit the flanks and use their trio of attacking midfielders to support Brenner up front. They registered more shots overall and forced the Bahia defense into several key interventions. However, much like their hosts, Vasco struggled to convert their promising play into goals. Defensively, they were resolute, with Carlos Cuesta and Robert Renan forming a reliable partnership at the back.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Bahia’s 4-4-2 formation focused on maintaining a compact shape and using their midfield four to control possession and transition quickly. Their fullbacks, particularly Luciano Juba, looked to overlap but were often pinned back by Vasco’s wide players. The front pairing of Willian José and Alejo Véliz worked hard but found space limited against Vasco’s disciplined defensive line. Vasco’s 4-2-3-1 allowed them to flood the midfield and stretch Bahia horizontally, with Adson and David providing width and support for Brenner. The double pivot of Tchê Tchê and Jair offered protection for the defense and helped recycle possession. Both teams made tactical fouls to disrupt rhythm, as reflected in the yellow cards, and neither side was able to capitalize on set pieces despite a combined ten corners.
Turning Point
Brenner's 52nd-minute shot, well saved by Ronaldo, was the closest either side came to breaking the deadlock and shifted momentum, but ultimately neither team could capitalize.
Man of the Match
Carlos Cuesta
Led Vasco’s defense with authority, making crucial interventions and keeping Bahia’s strikers quiet throughout the match.
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama: Match Preview
Bahia approach this fixture sitting fifth in the table, unbeaten in their last four league matches (DDDWL) but with three consecutive draws. Their home record is robust, with four wins and five draws from eleven, and they have not lost at Arena Fonte Nova since May. Vasco, in contrast, are mired in the relegation zone and have yet to win on the road this campaign, with four draws and five defeats from nine away fixtures.
The statistical matchup is defined by low recent attacking output from both sides: Bahia and Vasco have each averaged just 0.8 goals scored and conceded across their last five matches. Bahia's shot volume at home is decent (8 shots, 1.6 on target per game), but conversion has lagged, while Vasco's away defence, poor over the season (1.89 conceded per away game), has tightened slightly of late. Both teams have failed to score in two of their last five, and only two of those ten combined matches saw both teams find the net. Set-piece data is unremarkable, but both sides average over 4 corners per game in this span.
Given these rates, the model expects a tight, low-scoring affair. Bahia's home edge and Vasco's travel woes tilt the probability towards a home win, but the draw is also well in play given Bahia's tendency to share points. The likeliest scorelines are 1-0 or 1-1, with under 2.5 goals and BTTS 'no' both showing statistical value.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
43%
BTTS: Yes
47%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama that most previews miss.
- 1Bahia have drawn five of eleven home matches this season, the joint-most of any top-half side.
- 2Vasco have failed to win any of their nine away league games, conceding 1.89 goals per away match.
- 3Only three goals have been scored in total across Bahia's last three league games (1.0 per match).
Who do you think wins: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.01
Bahia and Vasco have each failed to score in two of their last five, and both average just 0.8 goals for and against in that span; the model gives 62% for BTTS 'no' versus a 50% implied probability at 2.00.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 1.95
Bahia's home matches average 2.55 goals and Vasco's away games 3.00, but recent matches trend lower: both sides at 0.8 goals scored/conceded per game in the last five, and only 44% modelled chance of over 2.5.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Draw@ 3.58
Bahia have drawn five of eleven at home, Vasco four of nine away, and both sides have drawn three of last five; model draw probability is 30% against 28.6% implied.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction
Statistical indicators point to a low-scoring contest, with Bahia's defensive solidity at home and Vasco's away struggles likely to keep chances at a premium. The most probable outcome is a narrow Bahia win, but the distribution is heavy towards 1-0 or 1-1, with BTTS 'no' and under 2.5 goals both showing value.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Both teams average just 0.8 goals for and against in their last five matches.
Defence
- →Bahia's home record: 4W-5D-2L, 17 scored, 11 conceded.
- →Vasco have not won away all season (0W-4D-5L, 10 scored, 17 conceded).
🚩 Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.4 corners for Bahia and 4.6 for Vasco DA Gama, for an expected total of 11. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (66%). Over 8.5: 77% · Over 10.5: 54%.
How Bahia and Vasco DA Gama Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bahialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Vasco DA Gamalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bahia are unbeaten in four league matches, though three of those have ended in draws, and their attack has struggled for output despite solid underlying numbers. Vasco have also drawn three of their last five in all competitions but remain winless away from home in the league, with their attack and defence both underperforming season averages recently.
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama — Last 10 Matches
What History Says: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama
Bahia have the upper hand in recent head-to-heads, winning three of the last five and keeping two clean sheets in that span. Five of the last ten meetings have finished under 2.5 goals, with four ending 1-0 or 1-1, suggesting a tendency towards tight, low-scoring encounters.
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
5
Bahia wins
2
Draws
3
Vasco DA Gama wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama
The biggest value edge is on BTTS 'no', where the model's 62% probability outpaces the 50% implied by odds of 2.00. Under 2.5 goals also shows a smaller but notable edge, with a 56% model probability versus 51.3% implied. The draw is slightly undervalued by the market given both teams' high draw rates and recent form.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and may not fully capture tactical changes.
- ⚠️Bahia's attack has underperformed shot numbers in recent matches (1.6 shots on target per game, 0.8 goals).
- ⚠️Vasco's away defence is poor over the season but has improved slightly in the last five.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bahia 1–0 Vasco DA GamaThe model projects a 1-0 Bahia win, driven by Vasco's winless away record and Bahia's defensive numbers at home. The strongest statistical signal is the low scoring expectation—both teams average just 0.8 goals for and against in their last five. The main risk is Bahia's recent inability to convert dominance into goals, which could allow Vasco to escape with a point.
Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama: Common Questions
Who will win Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Bahia are favoured with a 48% probability of victory, reflecting their strong home record and Vasco's winless away run. The draw is also a significant possibility at 30%, while Vasco's win chance is modelled at 22%.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
The model gives just a 38% probability for both teams to score, as both sides have failed to score in two of their last five and recent head-to-heads have often been low scoring.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama?
Yes, under 2.5 goals is modelled at 56% probability, higher than the 51.3% implied by odds of 1.95, with both teams averaging only 0.8 goals for and against in their last five matches.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bahia vs Vasco DA Gama: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 2 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.