Benfica vs Alverca Predictions
Primeira Liga · Portugal
Benfica
AI Predicted Score
3 - 1
Alverca
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Benfica Win
Recommended Bets: Benfica vs Alverca
Benfica vs Alverca: Match Preview
Benfica enter this fixture in second place, having won six of their opening eight league matches and scoring 24 goals—more than any other side in the division bar Porto. Their recent form is strong, with three consecutive wins across all competitions and no failures to score in their last five. Alverca, sitting eighth, have a balanced record but arrive off a home defeat and with a negative goal difference away from home.
Statistically, Benfica's attack is the standout feature: they average 3.0 goals per league game and 19 shots per match over their last five, while conceding less than one per game. Alverca, by contrast, concede 1.44 per match and have kept just one clean sheet in nine league outings. The away side's shot volume is modest (12.6 per game) and their possession numbers are low (37.4% last five), suggesting they will spend long spells under pressure. Benfica's set-piece threat is notable, with 5.6 corners per game recently, and their discipline (3.8 yellows per game) hints at a combative midfield.
The model expects Benfica to control the tempo and territory, with a high probability of an early goal—66% chance of the first goal before 30 minutes. Alverca's sporadic attacking output means a consolation is plausible, but the underlying rates point to a multi-goal home win, most likely in the 2-0 or 3-1 range.
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Expected goals · model says 2.80
Expected goals · model says 1.05
Over 2.5 Goals
74%
BTTS: Yes
61%
Likely Scores
2-1 · 2-0 · 3-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Benfica vs Alverca Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Benfica vs Alverca that most previews miss.
- 1Benfica have seen over 2.5 goals in seven of eight league matches this season (87.5%).
- 2Alverca have conceded in 89% of their league games, with just one clean sheet in nine.
- 3Benfica average 5.6 corners per game over their last five, indicating sustained attacking pressure.
Who do you think wins: Benfica vs Alverca?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Benfica vs Alverca(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Benfica's matches have seen over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of their league games this season, and their attack averages 3.0 goals per game, while Alverca concede 1.44 per match; the statistical environment points strongly towards a high-scoring contest.
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Match Result: Benfica Win
Benfica have won 75% of their league games and are unbeaten at home, with a +5 home goal difference, while Alverca have lost 50% of their away matches and have only an 11% clean sheet rate for the season.
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More Primeira Liga Predictions
The Case For This Benfica vs Alverca Prediction
This fixture pits a title-chasing Benfica side, averaging three goals per league match, against mid-table Alverca, whose away record is mixed and defensive numbers are average. The statistical shape of the match points to a high goal environment, with Benfica's attack volume and conversion rates far outstripping Alverca's ability to keep games tight on their travels. The model expects Benfica to dictate from the outset, with early pressure likely to yield a first-half lead and the final margin shaped by their superior shot production and set-piece threat.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Benfica's league-high 3.0 goals scored per game and 87.5% over 2.5 goal rate
- →Benfica's 19 shots and 5.8 shots on target per game in their last five matches
Defence
- →Alverca's away defence conceding 1.75 goals per away match and only 11% clean sheets overall
🚩 Benfica vs Alverca Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6.8 corners for Benfica and 3.6 for Alverca, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Benfica and Alverca Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Benfica vs Alverca Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Benficalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Alvercalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Benfica are on a three-match winning streak, scoring 10 goals and conceding just two in that span, and have not failed to score in any of their last five. Alverca's form is mixed, with three wins in their last five but coming off a home defeat and showing inconsistency, especially in defence.
Benfica vs Alverca — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +50% clean sheet rate this season
- +Over 2.5 goals in 87.5% of games this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Benfica vs Alverca
The sides have met twice in the Primeira Liga recently, with Benfica winning both encounters by a single goal (2-1 each time). While the sample is small, Benfica's edge has been clear, though Alverca have managed to score in both meetings.
Benfica vs Alverca Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
2
Benfica wins
0
Draws
0
Alverca wins
Things to Watch: Benfica vs Alverca
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be formally calculated.
- ⚠️Alverca's recent away wins (two in four) suggest some counter-attacking threat if Benfica overcommit.
- ⚠️Small sample size for H2H (only two recent meetings) limits certainty on matchup trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Benfica 3–1 AlvercaBenfica are projected to win 3-1, driven primarily by their league-leading scoring rate (3.0 goals per game) and Alverca's low clean sheet percentage. The likeliest way this forecast could falter is if Benfica rotate heavily after European action or if Alverca's counter-attack is more effective than their season averages suggest.
Benfica vs Alverca: Common Questions
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
The model gives Benfica a 73% probability of victory, compared to 9% for Alverca and 18% for the draw. Benfica's unbeaten home record and 3.0 goals per game average underpin their strong position.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Benfica vs Alverca?
There is a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals, based on Benfica's 87.5% over 2.5 rate in the league and their high shot output, while Alverca concede 1.44 per match.
Will both teams score in Benfica vs Alverca?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with Benfica rarely failing to score and Alverca netting in 8 of 9 league games, but the home side's defensive record (50% clean sheets) keeps the probability near even.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Benfica vs Alverca: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.