Bolivia vs Algeria Prediction
Algeria Favored Over Bolivia in World Cup 2026 Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Bolivia
AI Predicted Score
0 - 1
Algeria
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bolivia vs Algeria Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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The Case For This Bolivia vs Algeria Prediction
Algeria enters this friendly against Bolivia as a clear favorite, with the model assigning them a 50% chance of victory compared to Bolivia's 25%. The North Africans boast a significant Elo advantage of 98 points, reflecting their superior recent results and squad quality. Algeria's attacking metrics, led by creative midfielders and clinical forwards, suggest they are well-equipped to break down Bolivia's defense. Bolivia, meanwhile, faces an uphill battle. Their lack of recent attacking data and a neutral defensive profile leave them at a disadvantage, especially against an Algerian side that has shown both attacking flair and defensive solidity. The model's expected goals line (1.66 for Algeria vs 1.11 for Bolivia) underscores the gap, with the most likely scorelines favoring a narrow Algerian win or a competitive draw.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Algeria's attack boosted by high finishing and chance quality (xG blend 1.66)
- →Bolivia's recent form is mixed, with limited attacking data
- →Momentum: Algeria's attack is running hot (1.18 multiplier)
Defence
- →Algeria's defense suppresses opponents (factor 0.85), conceding just 0.6 goals/game in last 5
Match Context
- →Algeria holds a +98 Elo rating edge (1743 vs 1645)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.10 · 1.50
From xG
1.53 · 1.59
Blended
1.11 · 1.66
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Algeria attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Bolivia goals, columns = Algeria goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 7 | 12 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.5%
0-1
10.4%
1-2
9.6%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with Elo ratings, where Algeria's 1743 points (ranked 35th) give them a substantial baseline advantage over Bolivia's 1645 (ranked 57th). This translates into an expected score split of 0.64 for Algeria and 0.36 for Bolivia before factoring in team strengths. Next, the model layers in attack and defense data. Algeria's attack is rated 1.225 (factoring in strong finishing and high-quality chances), while their defense suppresses opponents at a rate of 0.85. Bolivia's metrics are neutral, with little recent data to suggest a particular strength or weakness. Recent-form momentum further boosts Algeria's expected goals (attack multiplier 1.18), nudging their final expected goals to 1.66, while Bolivia's is slightly lifted to 1.11. These expected goal values are then run through a Poisson distribution to generate exact scoreline probabilities. The most likely outcomes are a 1-1 draw (11.5%), a 0-1 Algeria win (10.4%), and a 1-2 Algeria win (9.6%).
More Friendlies Predictions
Bolivia vs Algeria Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bolivialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Algerialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Algeria's recent form is strong, with three wins and a draw in their last five matches, averaging 2.2 goals scored and just 0.6 conceded. Their attack is on a hot streak, and their defense has kept three clean sheets. Bolivia's form is mixed (LWWLD), scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.0 per game, but their underlying data is sparse, making it difficult to draw firm conclusions.
Bolivia vs Algeria — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
🚩 Bolivia vs Algeria Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Bolivia and 4.6 for Algeria, for an expected total of 9.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (54%). Over 8.5: 59% · Over 10.5: 34%.
What History Says: Bolivia vs Algeria
These teams have met only once before, in a 2024 friendly where Bolivia edged Algeria 3-2 away from home. With such limited head-to-head history, there is little to suggest a consistent pattern, so the model relies more heavily on recent form and underlying team strength.
Bolivia vs Algeria Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Bolivia wins
0
Draws
1
Algeria wins
Things to Watch: Bolivia vs Algeria
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of writing; no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and experimental lineups.
- ⚠️Bolivia's data is sparse, increasing model uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bolivia vs Algeria: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.