Bolivia vs Gambia Prediction
Bolivia vs Gambia: Model Sees Tight Friendly with Goals Likely
International Friendly · World
Bolivia
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Gambia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
See full breakdown below
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 1.45
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
59%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-2
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bolivia vs Gambia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Bolivia vs Gambia?
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The Case For This Bolivia vs Gambia Prediction
Bolivia and Gambia meet in an international friendly where the model gives Bolivia a marginal edge, but expects a competitive contest. Despite a 222-point Elo advantage for Bolivia (1645 vs 1423), the probabilities are unusually close: Bolivia win at 39.3%, Gambia at 36.2%, and draw at 24.5%. The predicted scoreline is 2-1 in favour of Bolivia, but both sides are projected to find the net. Recent form tempers Bolivia’s Elo edge, as their attack is in a slump (momentum factor 0.85) and their defence has been leaky (1.18). Gambia, conversely, are on a hot scoring streak (attack momentum 1.18), which boosts their expected goals and narrows the gap. With both teams' final expected goals nearly level (1.51 for Bolivia, 1.44 for Gambia), the model expects an open match with a high chance of both teams scoring.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Momentum adjustments: Bolivia attack -15%, Gambia attack +18%
Match Context
- →Bolivia hold a 222-point Elo rating advantage (1645 vs 1423)
- →Final expected goals: Bolivia 1.51, Gambia 1.44
- →Both teams to score probability at 59.4%
- →Top correct score: 1-1 (11.4% probability)
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.74 · 0.86
From xG
1.30 · 1.30
Blended
1.51 · 1.44
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Bolivia's cold attack trims their goals ×0.85; Bolivia's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.18; Gambia attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Gambia's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.14.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Bolivia goals, columns = Gambia goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
2-1
8.6%
1-2
8.2%
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bolivia vs Gambia that most previews miss.
- 1Bolivia have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches, averaging just 0.6 goals per game in that span.
- 2Gambia have scored in all of their last 5 matches and seen both teams score in 4 of those 5.
- 3The model’s top three correct scores (1-1, 2-1, 1-2) together account for over 28% of the total probability.
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with an Elo baseline, giving Bolivia a significant 222-point advantage, which would typically translate into a strong home favourite. However, the next step incorporates attack and defence factors, but with little granular data for either side, these remain neutral. Momentum is where the model shifts: Bolivia's recent form is poor, with their attack downgraded by 15% and their defence leaking 18% more than average. Gambia, on the other hand, get an 18% attack boost for their recent scoring run. These adjustments bring the expected goals lines much closer: Bolivia’s final expected goals drop to 1.51, while Gambia’s rise to 1.44. With these adjusted scoring rates, the Poisson model simulates likely scorelines. The most probable results are 1-1 (11.4%), 2-1 to Bolivia (8.6%), and 1-2 to Gambia (8.2%), reflecting the balanced nature of this fixture despite the Elo gap.
More Friendlies Predictions
Bolivia vs Gambia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bolivialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Gambialast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Bolivia come in on a poor run, having lost four of their last five matches and scoring only 0.6 goals per game in that stretch. Their attack has underperformed, and their defence has conceded an average of 2.6 goals per match. Gambia, in contrast, are in better form, with seven points from their last five games and no failures to score, averaging 2.6 goals per game recently.
Bolivia vs Gambia — Last 7 Matches
Concerns
- −5/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 3.2 conceded/game
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
🚩 Bolivia vs Gambia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.8 corners for Bolivia and 3.6 for Gambia, for an expected total of 7.4. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (79%). Over 8.5: 32% · Over 10.5: 13%.
What History Says: Bolivia vs Gambia
There is no recent head-to-head data available for Bolivia vs Gambia, reflecting the rarity of this international fixture. Both sides will be unfamiliar opponents, adding an element of unpredictability.
Bolivia vs Gambia Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Bolivia wins
1
Draws
0
Gambia wins
Things to Watch: Bolivia vs Gambia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so no value bets can be recommended.
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and experimental line-ups.
- ⚠️Sparse data on both teams’ recent matches and lack of head-to-head history increases uncertainty.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bolivia 2–1 GambiaThe model narrowly favours Bolivia, predicting a 2-1 home win, but the strongest number is the high both teams to score probability at 59.4%. Gambia’s recent attacking form and Bolivia’s defensive frailties make an upset or a high-scoring draw plausible. The main risk to the model’s verdict is Bolivia’s poor recent form, which could see their Elo advantage count for less than expected.
Bolivia vs Gambia: Common Questions
Who will win Bolivia vs Gambia?
The model gives Bolivia a 39.3% chance to win, with Gambia close behind at 36.2% and the draw at 24.5%. It predicts a 2-1 win for Bolivia, but the probabilities suggest a very even contest.
Will both teams score in Bolivia vs Gambia?
Yes, the model sees a 59.4% probability that both teams will score, reflecting recent form where Gambia have scored in every recent match and Bolivia have struggled defensively.
What are the chances of a high-scoring match between Bolivia and Gambia?
There is a 56.5% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 34.1% chance of over 3.5 goals, according to the model, indicating a strong likelihood of an open, attacking game.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bolivia vs Gambia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 29 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.