Bolivia vs Scotland Prediction
Scotland Favoured Over Bolivia in World Cup 2026 Friendly Clash
International Friendly · World
Bolivia
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
Scotland
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: Yes
@ 5
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.80
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
60%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Bolivia vs Scotland Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Bolivia vs Scotland?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
The Case For This Bolivia vs Scotland Prediction
Scotland enter this friendly against Bolivia as clear favourites, with the model assigning them a 50.9% chance of victory compared to Bolivia's 26.2%. The predicted scoreline is a 2-1 win for Scotland, reflecting their superior attacking output and recent momentum. While Bolivia have home advantage, their underlying numbers and lack of recent attacking data leave them as underdogs. The analytics highlight Scotland's attacking edge, driven by high xG contributions from key players like T. Conway, G. Hirst, and J. McGinn. Bolivia, meanwhile, have limited data on their top players and recent form, which tempers expectations for a home upset. The model expects a lively contest, with nearly 60% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 59.8% chance both teams find the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Recent form boosts Scotland's attack by 18% and Bolivia's by 2.7%
- →Scotland's top attackers have strong xG and finishing metrics
Match Context
- →Scotland hold an Elo rating advantage of +122 points (1767 vs 1645)
- →Scotland's blended expected goals: 1.82 vs Bolivia's 1.25
- →Model sees a 59.2% chance of over 2.5 goals
Elo Power Ratings
World Football Elo ratings — the model's baseline for relative strength.
Expected Goals & Scorelines
Elo and xG combine into a blended scoring rate per side, then a Poisson model gives the exact-scoreline grid.
From Elo
1.06 · 1.54
From xG
1.23 · 1.88
Blended
1.25 · 1.82
Hybrid blend: 60% Elo-derived, 40% xG-derived, then adjusted for recent-form momentum.
Recent-form momentum: Scotland attacking form lifts their goals ×1.18; Scotland's leaky defence boosts the opponent ×1.08.
Exact-scoreline probabilities (rows = Bolivia goals, columns = Scotland goals). Darker = more likely.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.6%
1-2
9.6%
0-1
8.5%
How the Model Reached This
The model starts with an Elo baseline, giving Scotland a notable edge with a rating of 1767 to Bolivia's 1645. This translates to Scotland being ranked 29th globally, well ahead of Bolivia's 57th. Next, the model factors in attacking and defensive strengths: Scotland's attack is rated at 1.449 (with strong finishing and chance quality), while Bolivia's is neutral at 1 due to sparse data. Defensively, Scotland's suppression factor (1.061) suggests only a slight vulnerability. Momentum adjustments are then applied, with Scotland's recent form boosting their attack by 18% and Bolivia's by just 2.7%. This lifts Scotland's final expected goals (λ) to 1.82, compared to Bolivia's 1.25. Finally, these expected goal values are run through a Poisson model to generate exact scoreline probabilities, resulting in a 50.9% win probability for Scotland and a predicted 2-1 away victory.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bolivia vs Scotland(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: Yes@ 5
Model assigns a 59.8% probability to BTTS 'Yes', far above the implied 20% from bookmaker odds of 5.0, indicating significant value.
More Friendlies Predictions
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bolivia vs Scotland
The model sees potential value in the 'Both Teams to Score: Yes' market, with a 59.8% model probability versus bookmaker odds of 5.0 (implied probability 20%). Similarly, 'Over 2.5 Goals' is priced at 1.62 (implied probability 61.7%) against a model probability of 59.2%, offering marginal value. The main 1X2 markets are efficiently priced, with no clear edge.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Bolivia vs Scotland Confirmed Lineups
Bolivia
Scotland
Bolivia vs Scotland Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bolivialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Scotlandlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Scotland's recent form is mixed, with two wins and three losses in their last five, but they have shown attacking promise, averaging 2 goals per game. Bolivia's form is similarly patchy, with two wins, two losses, and a draw, but their attacking data is sparse and less reliable. Both sides have seen goals at both ends, as reflected in the model's high BTTS and over 2.5 probabilities.
Bolivia vs Scotland — Last 4 Matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +High-volume attack — 14 shots/game
🚩 Bolivia vs Scotland Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.4 corners for Bolivia and 5.1 for Scotland, for an expected total of 9.5. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (52%). Over 8.5: 61% · Over 10.5: 36%.
What History Says: Bolivia vs Scotland
There is little to no recent head-to-head data between Bolivia and Scotland, as these sides rarely meet in international competition. This adds a layer of uncertainty, with the model relying more heavily on current ratings and recent form.
Bolivia vs Scotland Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Bolivia wins
0
Draws
1
Scotland wins
Things to Watch: Bolivia vs Scotland
- ⚠️International friendlies can be unpredictable due to squad rotation and motivation.
- ⚠️Bolivia's player-level data is sparse, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Recent form samples are small and may not reflect true team strength.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bolivia vs Scotland: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
A deterministic model — The Analytical Engine — turns that pack into the prediction: Elo ratings set the baseline, expected-goals output and defensive suppression adjust each side's scoring rate, recent form nudges the totals, and a Poisson model converts the final rates into the scoreline and market probabilities shown above. The written analysis is AI-generated from those fixed numbers and is not edited by hand.
Last updated: 5 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.