Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Botev Plovdiv
AI Predicted Score
2 - 0
Septemvri Sofia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Botev Plovdiv Win
Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia: Match Preview
Botev Plovdiv arrive in formidable form, having won 11 of their last 12 matches and conceding just four goals all season. Their current streak stands at three straight wins, including a recent 3-0 away victory over Septemvri Sofia. In contrast, Septemvri have suffered three consecutive defeats and have managed just one win in their last five, highlighting a sharp divergence in momentum between the two sides.
Statistically, the matchup is lopsided: Botev Plovdiv average 2.42 goals scored and only 0.33 conceded per game, with a 75% clean sheet rate. Their shot volume (9.6 per match) and shots on target (4.8) further reinforce their attacking credentials. Septemvri Sofia, meanwhile, concede 1.6 per game and have managed just 1.2 goals scored on average, with only one clean sheet in their last five. H2H trends also favour the hosts, who have won the last three meetings by a combined 8-0.
Given these rates, the model expects Botev Plovdiv to control the match, likely scoring early and maintaining defensive solidity. The probability distribution points to a 2-0 or 3-0 outcome, with limited prospects for the visitors to break through. Unless the friendly context leads to significant rotation or experimentation, the underlying numbers point firmly towards a home win with a low probability of both teams scoring.
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Expected goals · model says 2.10
Expected goals · model says 0.75
Over 2.5 Goals
54%
BTTS: Yes
46%
Likely Scores
2-0 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia that most previews miss.
- 1Botev Plovdiv have kept clean sheets in 75% of their matches this season and in five of the last nine H2H meetings.
- 2Septemvri Sofia have conceded at least two goals in four of their last five away games across all competitions.
- 3Only 23% of Botev Plovdiv's matches go over 3.5 goals, despite their high scoring average.
Who do you think wins: Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Botev Plovdiv Win
Botev Plovdiv have won 11 of 12 this season, conceding just 0.33 goals per game and keeping a 75% clean sheet rate, while Septemvri Sofia have lost 6 of 10 and average only 1.2 goals scored per match.
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BTTS: No
Botev Plovdiv have kept clean sheets in 75% of their matches and failed to concede in three of the last four H2H meetings at home; Septemvri Sofia have failed to score in two of their last five.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Only 23% of Botev Plovdiv's matches go over 3.5, and their defensive record suggests a controlled scoreline despite their attacking edge.
More Friendlies Clubs Predictions
The Case For This Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Prediction
Botev Plovdiv's season-long defensive dominance and scoring consistency set them apart from a Septemvri Sofia side who struggle for output, especially away. Expect the hosts to control the match tempo, limit Septemvri's chances, and deliver a result in line with their strong home and H2H records.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Botev Plovdiv have won 7 of the last 9 H2H meetings, including the last three by a combined 8-0.
Defence
- →Botev Plovdiv average 2.42 goals scored and just 0.33 conceded per game this season.
- →Septemvri Sofia have lost 6 of 10 matches, conceding 1.6 per game.
🚩 Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.6 corners for Botev Plovdiv and 4.4 for Septemvri Sofia, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Botev Plovdiv and Septemvri Sofia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Botev Plovdivlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Septemvri Sofialast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Botev Plovdiv enter this fixture on a three-match winning streak, having scored eight and conceded just two in their last five. Their only recent loss came against Levski Sofia, but otherwise they've been near-flawless this season. Septemvri Sofia, by contrast, have lost three in a row and four of their last five, with defensive frailties and a lack of cutting edge up front.
Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +75% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia
Botev Plovdiv have won seven of the last nine meetings with Septemvri Sofia, including the last three by an aggregate score of 8-0. Clean sheets have been a recurring theme, with Septemvri failing to score in five of those nine encounters. The pattern strongly favours the hosts, especially at home.
Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
7
Botev Plovdiv wins
0
Draws
2
Septemvri Sofia wins
Things to Watch: Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value calculations are not possible.
- ⚠️Standings data is missing, reducing context for league motivation.
- ⚠️Friendlies context may impact team selection and intensity; model is based on competitive match rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Botev Plovdiv 2–0 Septemvri SofiaThe model forecasts a 2-0 win for Botev Plovdiv, anchored by their 0.33 goals conceded per game and 75% clean sheet rate. The main risk is the friendly context potentially diluting intensity or prompting squad rotation, which could open the door for an unexpected scoreline.
Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia: Common Questions
Who will win Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
Botev Plovdiv are strong favourites with a 68% win probability, based on their 11 wins from 12 this season and a dominant recent H2H record. Septemvri Sofia's chance is just 10% by the model's estimate.
Will both teams score in Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
The model gives just a 27% chance of both teams scoring, reflecting Botev Plovdiv's 75% clean sheet rate and Septemvri Sofia's recent struggles in attack.
How many goals are expected in Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia?
There's a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and only a 23% chance of over 3.5, with the most likely outcomes being 2-0 or 3-0 to Botev Plovdiv, based on both teams' season scoring and concession rates.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Botev Plovdiv vs Septemvri Sofia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 30 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.