Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Predictions
Premier League · England
Bournemouth
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Nottingham Forest
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.8(+6% edge)
Recommended Bets: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: Match Preview
Bournemouth come into this fixture as one of the form teams in the division, having strung together five consecutive wins across all competitions and climbing to seventh in the table. Their attack has been revitalised, with Evanilson and Adli both finding the net regularly, and the side has not failed to score in any of their last five. Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have endured a difficult run, losing three of their last five and slipping to 16th, though their recent 3-1 win over Manchester City hints at some latent quality.
Statistically, Bournemouth’s recent output is eye-catching: 2.6 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game over the last five, with 15 shots and nearly six on target per match. Forest’s defence has struggled, conceding 1.6 per game in the same period and failing to keep a single clean sheet. Forest’s attack has been inconsistent, with just one second-half goal in their last five, while Bournemouth’s defence has been especially strong at home. Set pieces and discipline could be influential, as Bournemouth are drawing over six corners per match and Forest are averaging more than two yellow cards per game.
The model expects Bournemouth’s momentum to be decisive, with their attacking confidence and defensive solidity likely to overwhelm a Forest side still searching for consistency. While Forest’s shock win last time out warns against complacency, Bournemouth’s sustained form, superior head-to-head record, and sharper attacking metrics make them clear favourites to take all three points.
How Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Bournemouthlast 5 matchesIn exceptional form
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nottingham Forestlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Bournemouth are the league’s form side, rattling off five consecutive wins and climbing rapidly up the table, with their attack and defence both peaking. Forest, in contrast, have lost three of their last five and have not kept a clean sheet in that run, though their recent win over Manchester City suggests they cannot be underestimated.
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +5/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.6 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 16 shots/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest that most previews miss.
- 1Bournemouth have scored first in four of their last five matches, with five first-half goals in that span.
- 2Forest have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per game.
- 3Bournemouth’s last five home matches against Forest have produced three clean sheets and just two goals conceded.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.85
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
58%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
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The Case For This Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Bournemouth are riding the most potent form wave in the Premier League right now, with five consecutive wins across all competitions and a surge up to seventh in the table. Their attack has clicked into gear, netting 13 goals in their last five, while the defence has tightened with three clean sheets. Nottingham Forest, by contrast, have just snapped a four-match winless run with a surprise win over Manchester City, but their away form and defensive frailties remain a concern. The tactical battle tilts towards Bournemouth’s relentless front line—averaging 15 shots and 5.8 on target per match in their last five—against a Forest side who have conceded nine in five away games this season and have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last five overall. Forest’s own attack has been inconsistent, failing to score in two of their last five, and their second-half output (just one goal in the last five) highlights a tendency to fade after the break. Set pieces could also play a role, with Bournemouth averaging 6.2 corners per match recently, while Forest’s discipline (2.2 yellows per game) could be tested by Bournemouth’s direct runners. Momentum is firmly with the hosts, who have not failed to score in any of their last five and have a strong historical grip on this fixture, winning six of the last ten head-to-heads. Forest’s recent shock win suggests they can spring a surprise, but the underlying numbers point to Bournemouth’s attack having too much for a leaky Forest defence. Expect Bournemouth to set the tempo early and maintain control, with Forest’s best hope coming from transitions or set pieces.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Bournemouth have won five straight in all competitions, scoring 13 and conceding just 2 in that span.
- →Nottingham Forest have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and have lost three of those matches.
Match Context
- →Bournemouth have won six of the last ten head-to-head meetings, with Forest yet to win in that stretch.
Where the Model Sees Value: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bournemouth Win@ 2.04
Bournemouth arrive on a five-match winning streak in all competitions, averaging 2.6 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game over that run, while Forest have lost three of their last five and have not kept a clean sheet in that stretch.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.81
Bournemouth's last five have averaged 3.0 goals per game, with Forest conceding 1.6 per match in the same period and both sides showing a tendency for open games recently.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
🚩 Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Bournemouth and 5.3 for Nottingham Forest, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 46%.
What History Says: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth have dominated the recent head-to-head, winning six of the last ten and drawing four, with Forest yet to register a win in that period. The Cherries have been particularly strong at home in this matchup, keeping three clean sheets in the last five meetings at the Vitality Stadium.
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Bournemouth wins
4
Draws
0
Nottingham Forest wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
The model sees small but genuine value on Bournemouth to win at even money (2.00), with a 51% model probability versus 50% implied by the odds. Over 2.5 goals is also slightly undervalued, with the model’s 59% probability outpacing the 56% implied by 1.80 odds. The BTTS 'no' market is slightly overpriced, but the edge is negative.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest
- ⚠️Forest’s win over Manchester City in their last outing suggests they are capable of raising their level unexpectedly.
- ⚠️Bournemouth have a few defensive injuries (Araujo, Juanlu Sánchez, Tóth) that could test their depth.
- ⚠️Forest’s underlying shot numbers (16.2 per game in last five) are solid, indicating potential for more goals than their recent record suggests.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Bournemouth 2–1 Nottingham ForestThe model favours Bournemouth to continue their winning streak with a 2-1 victory, driven by their recent form—five straight wins and a potent attack averaging 2.6 goals per game. The biggest threat to this verdict is Forest’s ability to raise their level unexpectedly, as seen in their last match against Manchester City, but Bournemouth’s momentum and home advantage should see them through.
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: Common Questions
Who will win Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest?
Bournemouth are rated 51% likely to win, with the model strongly influenced by their five-match winning streak and recent attacking output. Forest are given just a 20% chance, with a 29% probability of a draw.
Will Bournemouth's winning streak continue?
The data points to Bournemouth extending their run, as they have averaged 2.6 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded per game across their last five, while Forest have not won away since September and have struggled defensively.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Bournemouth vs Forest?
There is a 59% model probability for over 2.5 goals, with Bournemouth’s recent matches averaging 3.0 total goals and Forest conceding at a rate of 1.6 per game in their last five.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 14 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.