Hull City vs Brighton Predictions
Premier League · England
Hull City
AI Predicted Score
0 - 2
Brighton
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2(+38% edge)
Recommended Bets: Hull City vs Brighton
Hull City vs Brighton: Match Preview
Brighton arrive at the MKM Stadium riding a wave of momentum, having won three on the bounce and kept four clean sheets in their last five outings. Their recent run includes a disciplined 1-0 win at Manchester City and a confident home victory over Brentford, underlining a defensive resilience that has propelled them to second in the table. Hull, meanwhile, are stuck in a rut: five games without a win (LDDLD), and while they remain unbeaten at home, four of those five have ended in draws, reflecting a side that struggles to turn structure into wins.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Brighton’s dominance in possession and shot creation—62% average possession and 17 shots per game in their last five—contrasted with Hull’s limited attacking output (just 2.4 shots on target per game recently). Brighton’s away defence has been watertight, conceding only once in their last three on the road, while Hull’s attack has failed to score in two of their last five. Set pieces offer little separation, with both sides averaging around five corners per match, but Brighton’s ability to control territory and tempo stands out.
The model expects Brighton’s current form and defensive solidity to be decisive, especially given Hull’s lack of cutting edge up front. Even with injuries to key Brighton forwards, the visitors’ structure and momentum should see them break through before half-time and manage the game from there. A 2-0 away win is the likeliest outcome, with Hull’s main danger being their knack for frustrating stronger sides into draws.
How Hull City and Brighton Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Injuries & Suspensions
Hull City
Brighton
Hull City vs Brighton Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Hull Citylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Brightonlast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Brighton’s recent form is among the best in the league, with three straight wins and four clean sheets in five, including a shutout at Manchester City and a European away win. Hull, on the other hand, are winless in five and have drawn four of their last five at home, often struggling to create clear chances and convert possession into goals.
Hull City vs Brighton — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Defensively solid — 0.4 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +70% clean sheet rate this season
Hull City vs Brighton Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Hull City vs Brighton that most previews miss.
- 1Brighton have not conceded in the first half in any of their last five matches.
- 2Hull have drawn four of their five home league games this season, all by one-goal margins or less.
- 3Brighton’s last five matches have averaged just 1.2 total goals per game, with four clean sheets and only one BTTS result.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 0.75
Expected goals · model says 1.85
Over 2.5 Goals
48%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 0-2 · 1-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Who do you think wins: Hull City vs Brighton?
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The Case For This Hull City vs Brighton Prediction
Brighton’s surge up the table has been powered by a defensive transformation, with four clean sheets in their last five and a current run of three consecutive wins that includes a statement away victory at Manchester City. Hull, by contrast, are mired in a five-match winless run, repeatedly drawing blanks in attack and relying on defensive structure to grind out draws at home. The tactical battle is likely to centre on Brighton’s high-possession, high-volume approach (62% average possession, 17 shots per game in their last five) against a Hull side content to cede territory and play on the counter. Hull’s home record is stubborn—unbeaten but with four draws from five—and their attack has produced just 2.4 shots on target per game recently, while Brighton’s away defence has conceded only once in their last three on the road. Set pieces could be a minor factor, with both sides averaging around five corners per game, but the real gulf is in open play. Given the contrasting momentum, the model expects Brighton’s control to tell eventually, with the visitors likely to break through before half-time and keep Hull at arm’s length. Injuries to key Brighton attackers (Mitoma, Ferguson) may limit their ceiling, but Hull’s lack of cutting edge and Brighton’s defensive discipline make a comfortable away win and a clean sheet the likeliest scenario.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Brighton are on a three-match winning streak, including away wins at Manchester City and Getafe.
Attack
- →Hull are winless in their last five (LDDLD), scoring just four goals in that stretch.
Defence
- →Brighton have kept four clean sheets in their last five matches across all competitions.
Where the Model Sees Value: Hull City vs Brighton(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.02
Brighton have kept four clean sheets in their last five across all competitions, while Hull have failed to score in two of their last five and average just 2.4 shots on target per game over that stretch. The form lines point strongly to at least one side blanking, with Brighton's defensive solidity the standout trend.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Brighton Win@ 1.54
Brighton arrive on a three-match winning streak, including away wins at Manchester City and a European clean sheet at Getafe, while Hull are winless in five and have struggled to create clear chances. The gulf in recent momentum and underlying shot numbers (Brighton averaging 17 shots per game, Hull just 8.4) tilts this in the visitors’ favour.
Read more ↓
More Premier League Predictions
🚩 Hull City vs Brighton Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.5 corners for Hull City and 4.4 for Brighton, for an expected total of 9.9. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (53%). Over 8.5: 66% · Over 10.5: 41%.
What History Says: Hull City vs Brighton
The head-to-head record between these sides is sparse and dates back to the Championship and FA Cup over a decade ago, with Hull having a slight edge historically (three wins to Brighton’s two in nine matches). Low-scoring draws have been common, with four stalemates and no meeting since 2016 producing more than two goals.
Hull City vs Brighton Head-to-Head History
Last 9 meetings between these sides
3
Hull City wins
4
Draws
2
Brighton wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Hull City vs Brighton
The biggest value edge lies in backing 'BTTS: No' at 2.00, where the model’s probability (69%) far exceeds the implied 50% from the odds. The draw also carries a slight model edge, but Brighton’s defensive form makes the clean sheet market the standout value based on current momentum.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Hull City vs Brighton
- ⚠️Brighton are missing several attacking players (Mitoma, Ferguson, Azeez), which could blunt their attacking output.
- ⚠️Hull have drawn four of five at home this season and rarely concede more than once, suggesting some risk of a low-scoring stalemate.
- ⚠️Brighton's recent defensive numbers are excellent, but their last five matches include two games against weaker European opposition.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Hull City 0–2 BrightonBrighton’s defensive momentum is the single strongest factor here, with four clean sheets in their last five and a three-match winning streak that includes a shutout at Manchester City. The likeliest path to error is Hull’s home resilience—unbeaten in five at the MKM Stadium—forcing another low-scoring draw if Brighton’s attack fails to click without Mitoma and Ferguson.
Hull City vs Brighton: Common Questions
Who will win Hull City vs Brighton?
Brighton are strong favourites according to the model, with a 63% probability of victory based on their three-match winning streak and defensive record, while Hull’s winless run and lack of attacking threat give them just a 12% chance.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Brighton?
The data points strongly to 'no', with a 69% model probability for at least one side blanking. Brighton have kept four clean sheets in their last five, and Hull have failed to score in two of their last five matches.
Can Brighton’s clean sheet streak continue against Hull?
Brighton’s defensive form is exceptional, with only one goal conceded in their last five matches across all competitions. Given Hull’s recent struggles in attack and low shot output, the clean sheet run has a strong chance to continue.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Hull City vs Brighton: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Form Guide, the momentum specialist — weights the last five matches above everything. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 15 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.