Brondby vs Viborg Predictions
Superliga · Denmark
Brondby
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Viborg
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4(+44% edge)
Match Result
7.2/10Late Mortensen Strike Seals Brøndby Win Over Stubborn Viborg
Brøndby edged past Viborg 1-0 at Brøndby Stadium, thanks to a late goal from Patrick Mortensen in the 80th minute. The hosts dominated much of the contest, controlling 55% possession and firing 23 shots, but were repeatedly frustrated by a resolute Viborg defence and some sharp goalkeeping from Kasper Kiilerich. Viborg, meanwhile, struggled to create clear-cut chances, registering just three shots on target from 13 attempts. The match was a tense affair, with both sides picking up two yellow cards apiece in a physical midfield battle. Despite Brøndby's attacking intent, Viborg held firm until Mortensen finally broke the deadlock late on, capitalizing on sustained pressure. The win keeps Brøndby’s momentum going in the Superliga, while Viborg will rue their inability to hold out for a point.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 0
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
80' — Goal
Patrick Mortensen scores the only goal of the match, breaking Viborg's resistance.
45' — Yellow Card
Bartosz Slisz cautioned for a late challenge, setting the tone for a physical second half.
67' — Yellow Card
Žan Zaletel booked as Viborg fought to keep Brøndby at bay.
Brondby
Brøndby were the more assertive side, dictating play with 55% possession and consistently probing the Viborg defence. Their attacking quartet, led by Patrick Mortensen, created numerous opportunities, as evidenced by their 23 total shots and 8 corners. Despite some wastefulness in front of goal, Brøndby’s persistence paid off late in the game, and their defence remained largely untroubled. The midfield pairing of Bartosz Slisz and Max Ejdum provided a solid platform, recycling possession and breaking up Viborg counters. Brøndby’s only blemish was a lack of clinical finishing, which kept the game nervier than it needed to be.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Viborg
Viborg set up in a compact 4-2-3-1, prioritizing defensive organization and looking to frustrate Brøndby. They conceded possession and territory, but their back line, marshaled by Žan Zaletel and Lukas Kirkegaard, stood up to wave after wave of attacks for much of the match. Goalkeeper Kasper Kiilerich was called into action several times, making crucial stops to keep his side in the contest. Going forward, Viborg struggled to build sustained attacks, managing just three shots on target and only three corners. Their midfield, while industrious, was often overrun, and their attacking players found little joy against a disciplined Brøndby defence.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Both teams lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but Brøndby’s approach was far more proactive. Their full-backs pushed high, stretching the play and allowing the midfield to dictate tempo. The home side’s pressing forced Viborg into hurried clearances and turnovers, limiting their ability to build from the back. Viborg’s tactical focus was on compactness and discipline, with the double pivot shielding the defence effectively for long spells. However, their lack of width and inability to transition quickly left their lone striker isolated. Brøndby’s use of width and late runs from midfield eventually broke the deadlock, as the visitors tired under constant pressure.
Turning Point
Mortensen’s 80th-minute goal, which finally rewarded Brøndby’s dominance and shattered Viborg’s defensive resolve.
Man of the Match
Patrick Mortensen
Scored the decisive goal and led the line with persistence, ultimately making the difference.
Brondby vs Viborg: Match Preview
Brondby and Viborg approach this clash with both sides having made steady, if unspectacular, starts to the new Superliga campaign. Brondby were held to a 1-1 draw away at Aarhus, while Viborg edged Odense 1-0 at home to briefly top the table. Both teams arrive unbeaten in their last five competitive matches, but neither has yet demonstrated a clear attacking superiority in league action, and the early standings reflect a tightly bunched field.
From a statistical perspective, the matchup points to a controlled tempo and limited goal output. Brondby’s inflated 3.4 goals per game average over their last five is heavily weighted by pre-season friendlies, while their league opener was a cagey affair. Viborg’s recent record features three clean sheets in five, but their attacking output is modest at 1.2 goals per game and low shot volume. Both sides’ season clean sheet percentages (Brondby 0%, Viborg 100%) are based on a single match, so should be treated with caution. The head-to-head record shows no clear dominance, with two draws and five one-goal games in the last ten encounters.
Given these underlying rates, the model projects a low-to-moderate scoring environment with a high probability of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, reflecting both teams’ early season caution and the statistical parity between their attacks and defences. The market has undervalued the draw, which stands out as the most attractive betting angle based on probability estimates.
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Expected goals · model says 1.15
Expected goals · model says 0.95
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
42%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Brondby vs Viborg Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Brondby vs Viborg that most previews miss.
- 1Four of the last five Brondby-Viborg meetings finished under 2.5 goals.
- 2Viborg have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches but averaged just 0.6 shots on target per game over that span.
- 3Brondby have not failed to score in any of their last five matches, but their only league goal came in the second half.
Who do you think wins: Brondby vs Viborg?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Brondby vs Viborg(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw@ 3.89
The model assigns a 36% probability to the draw, while the market implies only 25% (odds 4.00), creating a substantial value edge. Both sides have opened the season with low-scoring, closely contested matches and the last 10 H2H meetings have produced 2 draws, with neither side clearly dominant.
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The Case For This Brondby vs Viborg Prediction
Both Brondby and Viborg enter this fixture off the back of tight opening league results, with Brondby drawing at Aarhus (1-1) and Viborg edging Odense 1-0. The early table sees Viborg top after one round, but neither side has shown a clear attacking edge in competitive play yet, and both have avoided defeat in their last five competitive matches. Recent friendlies for both teams have featured a mix of high and low-scoring games, but these have limited predictive value compared to league data. Statistically, this match projects as a low-to-moderate goal environment. Brondby's last five matches average 3.4 goals for and 1.4 against, but this is inflated by pre-season friendlies; their league opener saw just two goals, matching Viborg's. Viborg have kept three clean sheets in their last five, but their shot and shot-on-target averages (2 and 0.6) are modest, suggesting limited attacking volume. Brondby’s attack looks more potent in friendlies, but their competitive output is yet to match that, and their season clean sheet rate remains at 0%. The model expects a closely fought contest, with neither side likely to dominate. The most probable outcome is a 1-1 draw, supported by the low season scoring rates (both sides averaging 1.0 goals for per league game so far) and a head-to-head history that has produced two draws and five matches decided by a single goal in the last ten meetings. The draw is notably overpriced in the market, making it the standout value angle.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Brondby’s last five matches have averaged 3.4 goals scored, but this is skewed by friendlies.
Defence
- →Viborg have kept three clean sheets in their last five matches, but with low attacking shot volume.
Match Context
- →Both teams have scored exactly one goal in their only league match this season.
🚩 Brondby vs Viborg Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.3 corners for Brondby and 5.5 for Viborg, for an expected total of 10.8. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 75% · Over 10.5: 51%.
How Brondby and Viborg Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Brondby vs Viborg Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Brondbylast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Viborglast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Brondby’s recent form is mixed, with a win, two draws, and a loss in their last four, but their only competitive result this season is a 1-1 draw at Aarhus. Viborg have won three of their last five, including their Superliga opener against Odense, and have kept three clean sheets in that span. Both sides have avoided defeat in their last five competitive fixtures, but neither has shown a clear attacking edge in league play.
Brondby vs Viborg — Last 1 Matches
What History Says: Brondby vs Viborg
The last ten meetings between Brondby and Viborg are evenly split, with each side winning four and two matches ending in draws. Recent encounters have been low-scoring, with four of the last five finishing under 2.5 goals and three decided by a single goal. No team has managed back-to-back wins in this fixture over the last five meetings, highlighting its competitive balance.
Brondby vs Viborg Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Brondby wins
2
Draws
4
Viborg wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Brondby vs Viborg
The model’s strongest value signal is on the draw in the 1x2 market, where a 36% probability contrasts sharply with the market’s implied 25% (odds 4.00). Other markets are broadly in line with model expectations, and the lack of over/under and BTTS odds limits further value identification. The draw stands out as the clear edge given the underlying rates and H2H trends.
Odds from Betfair. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Brondby vs Viborg
- ⚠️Extremely limited competitive sample for both sides this season—only one league match each.
- ⚠️Brondby have yet to play a home league match, so no current home/away split data.
- ⚠️Recent friendlies may not accurately reflect competitive match intensity or tactical approach.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Brondby 1–1 ViborgThe model forecasts a 1-1 draw, with the standout data point being both teams’ identical scoring rates (1.0 per game) in competitive matches this season and a head-to-head history of tight contests. The main risk is that Brondby’s friendly goal glut translates into a more open home performance, or Viborg’s recent defensive solidity is tested by a higher-quality attack than they have faced so far.
Brondby vs Viborg: Common Questions
Who will win Brondby vs Viborg?
The model gives Brondby a 38% chance to win, Viborg a 26% chance, and the draw a 36% probability. With both teams showing similar early-season numbers and a history of close matches, the draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Brondby vs Viborg?
There is a 54% probability that both teams will score, based on recent averages and the fact that neither side has failed to score in their last five matches. However, Viborg’s shot volume has been low, so this is only a marginal lean towards 'yes'.
Is there value in betting the draw in Brondby vs Viborg?
Yes, the model estimates a 36% chance of a draw, while the market implies just 25% (odds 4.00), creating a significant value edge of +44%. The head-to-head and current season data both support a tightly contested match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Brondby vs Viborg: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 26 July 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.