Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Predictions
Premier League 2 Division One · England
Burnley U21
Full Time
4 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 3
Derby County U21
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Match Result
7.7/10Burnley U21s Cruise Past Derby County U21s with Emphatic 4-1 Victory
Burnley U21 delivered a commanding display at the Lancashire County Ground, dispatching Derby County U21 with a resounding 4-1 win in Premier League 2 Division One action. The hosts struck early, setting the tone with a third-minute opener, and maintained their attacking impetus throughout the match. Despite a brief Derby resurgence that saw them level the score in the 35th minute, Burnley responded clinically, restoring their lead just two minutes later and adding two more goals in the second half to seal the result. The match was marked by Burnley's relentless forward play and ability to capitalize on key moments, while Derby struggled to contain the hosts' attacking threats. Both sides showed plenty of youthful intensity, with a combined five yellow cards, but it was Burnley's composure and execution in the final third that ultimately proved decisive.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 3
Actual
4 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
3' — Goal
Burnley U21 open the scoring with a fast start, putting Derby on the back foot immediately.
35' — Goal
Derby County U21 equalize, briefly swinging momentum their way.
37' — Goal
Burnley U21 restore their lead just two minutes after conceding, regaining control.
74' — Goal
Burnley U21 extend their advantage, making it 3-1 and putting the result beyond doubt.
87' — Goal
A late Burnley U21 goal adds polish to an already impressive scoreline.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of five yellow cards reflect the match's competitive edge and youthful exuberance.
Burnley U21
Burnley U21 started on the front foot, grabbing an early goal to put Derby immediately under pressure. Their attacking verve was evident throughout, as they consistently found ways to break down the Derby defence. Even after conceding an equalizer, Burnley responded almost instantly, demonstrating impressive mental resilience. The second half saw them tighten their grip on proceedings, adding two more goals to cap off a dominant performance. Defensively, Burnley were largely untroubled apart from the spell leading up to Derby's goal. Their midfield controlled the tempo, and the forwards were clinical when chances arose.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Derby County U21
Derby County U21 struggled to cope with Burnley's early intensity and fell behind within minutes. They showed character to pull level in the 35th minute, but their joy was short-lived as Burnley quickly reclaimed the lead. The second half saw Derby increasingly on the back foot, unable to mount a sustained attacking threat or stem the flow of Burnley's attacks. Defensively, Derby were exposed by Burnley's movement and precision, and their discipline wavered as they picked up two yellow cards. Ultimately, they were outclassed by a sharper, more cohesive Burnley side.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Although specific formations are unavailable, Burnley U21's approach was clearly attack-minded, as evidenced by their four goals and ability to respond quickly after setbacks. Their pressing and forward runs repeatedly unsettled Derby, who struggled to build from the back or sustain possession. Burnley’s midfielders appeared to dictate the tempo, and their willingness to push numbers forward paid dividends, especially in the second half. Derby County U21, meanwhile, tried to stay compact and hit back on the break, but their defensive shape was breached too often. The quick concession after their equalizer suggested organizational issues and a lack of composure under pressure. The flurry of yellow cards on both sides indicated a physical contest, but Burnley managed their aggression more effectively.
Turning Point
Burnley U21's immediate response to Derby's equalizer in the 37th minute, regaining the lead and snuffing out Derby's momentum.
Man of the Match
Burnley U21 Goalscorer (37')
Scored the crucial goal to restore Burnley's lead moments after Derby's equalizer, swinging the match decisively in the hosts' favor.
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21: Match Preview
Burnley U21 enter this fixture rooted near the bottom of the table, having lost both league matches and shipped seven goals in the process. Their only home outing ended in a 1-3 defeat to Reading U21, and the side has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five across all competitions. Derby County U21, by contrast, have taken four points from two league games, including a 3-1 away win at Reading U21, and arrive in the top five with momentum from a recent cup victory.
Statistically, the matchup is shaped by each side’s attacking output and defensive vulnerability. Burnley U21’s season average sits at 2.0 goals scored and 3.5 conceded per game, while Derby County U21 are even more prolific (3.5 scored, 2.5 conceded). Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in every league match, and BTTS has landed in four of Burnley’s last five and all five of Derby’s. Neither side has managed a clean sheet in league play, and both have a tendency to concede in both halves, with Derby’s last five averaging 1.2 goals conceded before half-time.
Given these rates, the model expects an open encounter with multiple goals, with Derby’s sharper attack and slightly better defensive record swinging the probabilities in their favour. However, both teams’ consistent BTTS and over 2.5 trends suggest the goal markets are the most robust angle, while the outright result remains vulnerable to variance given both sides’ defensive records.
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Expected goals · model says 1.75
Expected goals · model says 2.45
Over 2.5 Goals
79%
BTTS: Yes
75%
Likely Scores
1-2 · 2-2 · 1-3
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 that most previews miss.
- 1Burnley U21 and Derby County U21 have combined for 11 goals conceded in just four league matches (2.75 per team per game).
- 2BTTS has landed in 9 of the last 10 combined fixtures across all competitions for these sides.
- 3Derby County U21 have scored in both halves in 3 of their last 5 matches, while Burnley U21 have conceded in both halves in both league games.
Who do you think wins: Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their league matches this season, with Burnley U21 games averaging 5.5 and Derby County U21 games averaging 6.0 goals per match.
Read more ↓
BTTS: Yes
Burnley U21 have seen both teams score in 4 of their last 5, while Derby County U21 have had BTTS in all of their last 5, and neither side has kept a clean sheet in league play.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Derby County U21 Win
Derby County U21 have a stronger season start (4 points from 2, 3.5 goals scored per game) and a positive away record, while Burnley U21 have lost both league matches and conceded 3.5 per game.
Read more ↓
More Premier League 2 Division One Predictions
The Case For This Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Prediction
Statistical profiles point to a high-scoring contest between two sides with leaky defences and productive attacks. Derby County U21’s superior attacking output and Burnley U21’s defensive frailty tip the balance in favour of the visitors, but both teams’ consistent BTTS and over 2.5 trends make goal markets the most reliable angle.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Burnley U21 have lost both league matches, conceding 7 goals in 2 games.
- →Derby County U21 average 3.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per league match.
Match Context
- →Both teams have seen over 2.5 goals in 100% of their league fixtures this season.
How Burnley U21 and Derby County U21 Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Burnley U21last 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derby County U21last 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burnley U21 have struggled for results, losing both league matches and conceding seven goals, with only one win in their last five across all competitions. Derby County U21 are unbeaten in league play (one win, one draw), have scored seven in two league games, and come in off a 3-1 cup win, showing sharper form and momentum.
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 100% of games this season
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21
The only recent head-to-head ended 1-1, which stands out as a low-scoring anomaly given both sides’ current defensive records. There is no evidence of dominance from either side in this limited history.
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Head-to-Head History
Last 2 meetings between these sides
1
Burnley U21 wins
1
Draws
0
Derby County U21 wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21
No bookmaker odds are available for this fixture, so value analysis cannot be calculated. However, the model’s strongest probabilities are on over 2.5 goals (81%) and BTTS (78%), which would represent value if typical market odds are available above 1.25 and 1.30 respectively.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21
- ⚠️Sample sizes are small with only two league matches played for each side.
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available for value analysis or EV calculation.
- ⚠️No shot, possession, or set piece data to refine attacking/defensive rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Burnley U21 2–3 Derby County U21The model projects a 3-2 win for Derby County U21, driven by their superior scoring rate (3.5 per game) and Burnley U21’s defensive frailty (zero clean sheets, 3.5 conceded per game). The most plausible way this forecast goes wrong is if the early-season volatility or small sample size skews the goal distribution, but the over 2.5 and BTTS markets remain well-supported by the data.
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21: Common Questions
Who will win Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Derby County U21 are favoured by the model with a 51% win probability, compared to 23% for Burnley U21 and 26% for the draw, reflecting Derby’s stronger start and attacking output.
Will both teams score in Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Both teams to score is highly probable at 78%, with both sides having failed to keep a clean sheet in league play and BTTS landing in 9 of their last 10 combined matches.
How many goals are expected in Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
The model gives an 81% probability to over 2.5 goals and 57% to over 3.5 goals, with both teams averaging at least 2.5 goals conceded per league match and every league fixture for both sides going over 2.5 so far.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 11 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Resources
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Derby County U21 Predictions
All Derby County U21 fixtures & tips
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 Stats
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Premier League 2 Division One Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results