Burnley vs Derby Predictions
Championship · England
Burnley
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Derby
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Correct Score: 1–1
Match Result
7.5/10Late Derby Equaliser Denies Burnley in Turf Moor Stalemate
Burnley and Derby County played out a dramatic 1-1 draw at Turf Moor, with the visitors snatching a late equaliser to cancel out Burnley's first-half lead. The hosts looked set for all three points after taking the lead in the 34th minute, but Derby's persistence paid off with a goal deep into the 90th minute, ensuring the spoils were shared in this closely contested Championship encounter. Despite Derby's dominance in possession (53%) and a clear advantage in attacking output—registering 14 shots with 6 on target compared to Burnley's 6 shots and just 2 on target—the home side's defensive organisation and resilience kept them ahead for much of the match. However, Derby's pressure finally told in the dying moments, leaving Burnley to rue missed opportunities and late lapses.
🔮 AI Prediction Report
PSYCHIC MODEPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results3/3 hit
Key Moments
34' — Goal
Z. Amdouni puts Burnley ahead with a clinical finish.
45' — Yellow Card
Burnley pick up their second yellow card, reflecting their physical approach.
70' — Yellow Card
Derby receive a yellow card as they push for an equaliser.
85' — Burnley yellow card
Burnley continue to rack up bookings as they defend their lead.
90' — Goal
C. Morris scores a dramatic late equaliser for Derby.
Burnley
Burnley set up in a classic 4-4-2 and made the most of their limited chances, taking the lead in the first half and holding firm against Derby's waves of attacks. They were disciplined defensively, but struggled to impose themselves in possession and create clear-cut opportunities, managing only 2 shots on target all game. Four yellow cards reflected their combative approach as they tried to disrupt Derby's rhythm, but a lapse in the final moments cost them the win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Derby
Derby, lining up in a 4-2-3-1, controlled the tempo with 53% possession and looked the more threatening side throughout. They created significantly more chances, firing 14 shots with 6 on target, but were repeatedly denied by Burnley's defence and goalkeeper. Their persistence was finally rewarded with a dramatic late equaliser in the 90th minute, a testament to their attacking intent and refusal to give up.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Burnley deployed a 4-4-2, focusing on compactness and direct play, but struggled to maintain possession and build sustained attacks. Their midfield worked hard to disrupt Derby's rhythm, but the four yellow cards showed the cost of their aggressive pressing. Derby's 4-2-3-1 allowed them to dominate the ball and stretch Burnley, especially through the advanced midfield trio, but they often found Burnley's back line difficult to break down. Set pieces and wide play were key avenues for Derby, while Burnley looked to hit on the break. Substitutions for both sides appeared to be aimed at injecting energy and shoring up defensive lines late on, but Derby's attacking persistence ultimately paid off. The tactical contrast made for an absorbing contest, with Derby's control eventually overcoming Burnley's resistance.
Turning Point
C. Morris's 90th-minute equaliser, which capped Derby's relentless pressure and denied Burnley victory.
Man of the Match
C. Morris
Scored the crucial late equaliser and led the line tirelessly for Derby.
Burnley vs Derby: Match Preview
Burnley and Derby enter this fixture separated by a single point at the foot of the Championship, both desperate for a turnaround after winless starts. Burnley (DLDLL) have yet to win, conceding 13 in six, while Derby (LLWLD) have just one victory and have also shipped 11. Both sides are already under pressure to avoid being cut adrift from safety, with only three and four points respectively.
The statistical matchup is defined by low attacking output and leaky defences. Burnley’s home scoring rate is 1.33 per game, but they have not kept a clean sheet all season (0% clean sheet rate). Derby’s away attack is even less convincing at 1.0 goals per game, and they have failed to score in three of their last five overall. Both teams average around 3 shots on target per match, and the last five matches for Burnley have all seen both teams score, but Derby have managed just two goals in their last four.
Given the nearly identical defensive records and lack of cutting edge up front, the model expects a close contest with a high chance of a draw and a modest goal total. The likeliest outcome is a 1-1, with both sides cancelling each other out and neither showing the quality to force a decisive edge.
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Expected goals · model says 1.35
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
46%
BTTS: Yes
51%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burnley vs Derby Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Burnley vs Derby that most previews miss.
- 1Four of the last ten H2H meetings between Burnley and Derby have ended 0-0.
- 2Burnley have seen both teams score in all of their last five matches, despite not winning any.
- 3Derby have failed to score in three of their last five games, and average just 0.83 goals per game this season.
Who do you think wins: Burnley vs Derby?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burnley vs Derby(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both sides average just over 1 goal scored per game and have nearly identical defensive records (Burnley 2.17 conceded, Derby 1.83), while four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended level.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Despite 66.7% over 2.5 rates for both teams this season, the underlying attack rates (Burnley 1.17, Derby 0.83 per game) and Derby’s three failed-to-score games in their last five suggest the market is slightly overestimating goal volume.
Read more ↓
Double Chance: Burnley or Draw
Burnley have not lost at home to Derby in any of the last ten H2H meetings (6W, 4D), and Derby have taken just three points from three away games this season.
Read more ↓
More Championship Predictions
The Case For This Burnley vs Derby Prediction
Burnley and Derby both arrive at Turf Moor with nearly identical season records and negative goal differences, each searching for a spark to climb out of the bottom three. Burnley are yet to win in six (DLDLL), while Derby’s only victory came away at Portsmouth, with both sides averaging fewer than 1.2 goals scored per game. The data points to a low-margin contest between two sides struggling for attacking fluency but conceding regularly. Statistically, Burnley’s home attack (1.33 goals/game, 4 goals in 3 home matches) faces a Derby away defence conceding 1.67 per away game, but Derby’s own attack is even less potent on the road (1.0 per game, 3 in 3). Both teams have failed to keep a clean sheet in five of their last six, but Derby have failed to score in three of their last five. The shot data is similarly middling: Burnley average 13 shots and 3.2 on target per match, Derby 9.6 and 3.0, with neither side showing a clear edge in set pieces or discipline. The model projects a tight, attritional game with few clear chances and a high probability of a draw, most likely 1-1. Both teams’ tendency to concede but lack of attacking punch, combined with a history of low-scoring H2Hs (four 0-0s in the last ten), point to a match decided by small margins or a single error.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Derby have failed to score in three of their last five matches.
Defence
- →Burnley have not kept a clean sheet in any match this season (0% clean sheet rate).
Match Context
- →Both teams have negative goal differences and sit 22nd and 23rd in the table.
🚩 Burnley vs Derby Corners Prediction
low confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Burnley and 4.6 for Derby, for an expected total of 9.6. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (51%). Over 8.5: 62% · Over 10.5: 37%.
How Burnley and Derby Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burnley vs Derby Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burnleylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Derbylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burnley are winless in six, with a DLDLL run and no clean sheets, conceding over two per game. Derby have just one win in their last five (LLWLD), and have failed to score in three of those matches, highlighting attacking struggles. Both sides are near the bottom of the table and lacking momentum.
Burnley vs Derby — Last 6 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.2 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Burnley vs Derby
Burnley are unbeaten in the last ten meetings with Derby, winning six and drawing four, including four 0-0 draws. The fixture has historically been low-scoring, with just one of the last five H2Hs producing more than two goals. Derby have not won at Turf Moor in over a decade.
Burnley vs Derby Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Burnley wins
4
Draws
0
Derby wins
Things to Watch: Burnley vs Derby
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available at time of analysis, so no value edge calculations.
- ⚠️Early in the season: small sample sizes may not capture true team strengths.
- ⚠️Both teams have shown volatility in goals conceded, increasing uncertainty in goal markets.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Burnley 1–1 DerbyA 1-1 draw is the most probable outcome, supported by both teams’ season-long scoring rates (Burnley 1.17, Derby 0.83) and a H2H trend of low-scoring stalemates. The single strongest data point is Derby's three failed-to-score games in their last five, tempering expectations for a high-scoring contest. The main risk is Burnley’s inability to keep clean sheets, which could allow Derby to nick a result if their attack clicks.
Burnley vs Derby: Common Questions
Who will win Burnley vs Derby?
The model gives Burnley a 37% chance of victory, Derby a 27% chance, and a draw 36%. Both teams are winless at home/away in the league, so a draw is the likeliest outcome.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Derby?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, as Burnley have seen BTTS in all their last five matches, but Derby have failed to score in three of their last five.
Is under 2.5 goals a good bet for Burnley vs Derby?
Under 2.5 goals has a 52% probability according to the model, despite both teams' high over 2.5 rates this season. The underlying attack rates and Derby's recent blanks suggest a lower-scoring game is slightly more likely.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burnley vs Derby: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.