Burnley vs Notts County Predictions
League Cup · England
Burnley
Full Time
1 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 1
Notts County
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Burnley Win
@ 1.56
Match Result
7.5/10Burnley Squeeze Past Notts County on Penalties After Cup Thriller at Turf Moor
Burnley survived a major scare at Turf Moor, edging past Notts County on penalties after a tense 1-1 draw in the League Cup. Despite dominating possession with a whopping 74% and firing 12 shots (4 on target), Burnley found themselves matched by a resolute Notts County side who defended doggedly and forced the tie all the way to spot-kicks. Notts County struck first through Lee Ndlovu in the 42nd minute, but Burnley responded swiftly after the break with a 48th-minute equalizer from Zian Flemming. The hosts pressed relentlessly but were repeatedly frustrated by Notts County's deep-lying five-man defense and the heroics of goalkeeper James Belshaw. The visitors, despite seeing just 26% of the ball and picking up three yellow cards, held on through regular and extra time, forcing a penalty shootout. Ultimately, Burnley's superior composure from the spot saw them through to the next round, but not without a stern examination from their lower-league opponents.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
2 - 1
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
42' — Goal
Lee Ndlovu puts Notts County ahead against the run of play.
48' — Goal
Zian Flemming equalizes for Burnley with a well-taken finish.
90' — Full Time
Match ends 1-1 after 90 minutes, sending the tie to extra time.
120' — End of Extra Time
Neither side finds a winner; match goes to penalties.
Penalties' — Shootout
Burnley prevail in the penalty shootout to advance.
Burnley
Burnley controlled the match territorially and statistically, boasting 74% possession and dictating play from their 3-4-2-1 setup. Their midfield trio, led by Hannibal Mejbri and Ugo Raghouber, kept the ball moving but struggled to break down a compact Notts County defense. The hosts created more chances (12 shots, 4 on target) but lacked a clinical edge, often frustrated by the visitors' numbers behind the ball. Despite falling behind late in the first half, Burnley responded well and pressed for a winner, but their efforts were met with stubborn resistance. Their eventual triumph on penalties owed much to their mental resilience and technical superiority under pressure.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Notts County
Notts County delivered a disciplined and spirited performance, making the most of their limited opportunities. Lining up in a defensive 5-3-2, they soaked up heavy pressure and struck against the run of play through Lee Ndlovu just before halftime. Despite conceding soon after the restart, they maintained their shape, committed 15 fouls to disrupt Burnley's rhythm, and received three yellow cards for their troubles. Their attacking threat was sporadic (6 shots, 2 on target), but their defensive organization and the heroics of James Belshaw in goal kept them alive through 120 minutes. Ultimately, their brave effort fell just short in the penalty shootout, but they leave Turf Moor with heads held high.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Burnley set up in a 3-4-2-1, seeking to dominate possession and overload central areas, with Mejbri and Raghouber orchestrating play from midfield. Their wingbacks, Oliver Sonne and Jacob Bruun Larsen, provided width but struggled to break down Notts County's deep-lying 5-3-2, which saw all five defenders camped in and around their own box for long spells. Notts County's approach was pragmatic: they sat deep, absorbed pressure, and looked to hit on the counter. Their midfield trio worked tirelessly to screen the defense, while Lee Ndlovu and Callum Roberts offered outlets on rare breaks. The visitors' physicality was evident in their 15 fouls and three bookings, as they disrupted Burnley's rhythm and protected their penalty area. Substitutions appeared to reinforce defensive solidity for Notts County, while Burnley pushed for more attacking impetus late on.
Turning Point
Zian Flemming’s equalizer just after halftime shifted momentum back to Burnley, allowing them to dictate the remainder of the match and eventually triumph on penalties.
Man of the Match
James Belshaw
Kept Notts County in the contest with key saves and a commanding presence under relentless Burnley pressure.
Burnley vs Notts County: Match Preview
Burnley enter this League Cup tie on the back of a mixed pre-season, having failed to win in their last five outings (form: DLLDL) and conceding an average of 2.4 goals per game. Notts County, meanwhile, have also been inconsistent, losing three of their last five but showing attacking promise with eight goals scored, including a 5-0 away win at Alfreton Town. With no league positions or recent competitive matches to reference, both sides are looking to set the tone for their season in this cup opener.
Statistically, Burnley’s defensive record is a concern: they have yet to keep a clean sheet in pre-season and have seen both teams score in all five matches. Notts County’s attack has been streaky, failing to score in two of their last five but averaging 1.8 goals per game when they do find the net. Set-piece data and discipline trends are limited, but Notts County’s last five show a low average of 0.4 yellow cards per game, while Burnley’s matches have also been relatively low on bookings.
The model expects Burnley’s home advantage and squad depth to edge a high-scoring contest, but the gap is narrower than the market suggests. With both teams showing defensive vulnerabilities and a tendency for early goals (61% chance of a goal before the 30th minute), a 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, though Notts County’s recent attacking surges mean an upset can’t be ruled out.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Burnley vs Notts County
The model’s probabilities are broadly in line with bookmaker odds across most markets, with the strongest divergence being the market’s confidence in Burnley. At 1.57, the home win is shorter than the model’s 54% probability, suggesting little value in backing Burnley outright. Over 2.5 goals and BTTS are both priced fairly, leaving few clear value edges unless team news shifts the balance.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Burnley vs Notts County(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Burnley Win@ 1.56
Burnley are priced as clear favourites at 1.57 (implied 64%), but the model gives them a 54% win probability, suggesting the market may be slightly overvaluing them given their patchy pre-season form (1 win in 5, 2.4 goals conceded per game).
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Burnley vs Notts County Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Burnley vs Notts County that most previews miss.
- 1Burnley’s last five matches have all seen both teams score, despite failing to win any of them.
- 2Notts County have kept two clean sheets in their last five, but both came against lower-league or non-league opposition.
- 3There’s a 59% model probability for over 2.5 goals, matching the bookmaker’s implied odds and reflecting both sides’ recent defensive issues.
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Expected goals · model says 1.90
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
59%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 2-1 · 1-0
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The Case For This Burnley vs Notts County Prediction
Bookmakers have Burnley as strong favourites, but their recent defensive frailty and Notts County's goal threat suggest this tie could be closer than the odds imply. Both sides have shown attacking intent in pre-season, but Burnley's home advantage and higher squad quality still tilt the balance their way.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Burnley have conceded 2.4 goals per game across their last five friendlies, failing to keep a clean sheet in any of them.
- →All five of Burnley's last five matches saw both teams score, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities but consistent attacking output.
Match Context
- →Notts County have scored in three of their last five, including a five-goal haul away at Alfreton Town, but also failed to score in two.
How Burnley and Notts County Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burnley vs Notts County Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burnleylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Notts Countylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Burnley’s pre-season has been underwhelming, with no wins in five and defensive issues evident in their 2.4 goals conceded per game. Notts County have also struggled for consistency, but their two wins from five include an emphatic 5-0 away victory, hinting at attacking potential if they find rhythm.
Burnley vs Notts County — Last 1 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
What History Says: Burnley vs Notts County
There is no head-to-head data available for this fixture, so no historical trends or dominance can be referenced. This adds a layer of uncertainty to the model’s projections.
Burnley vs Notts County Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Burnley wins
1
Draws
0
Notts County wins
Things to Watch: Burnley vs Notts County
- ⚠️No competitive league form or standings data is available for either side ahead of this cup fixture.
- ⚠️Recent results are based solely on friendlies, which may not fully reflect competitive intensity or tactical setups.
- ⚠️No head-to-head record is available to assess historical matchup trends.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Burnley 2–1 Notts CountyBurnley are projected to win 2-1, with their superior squad and home advantage just outweighing their recent defensive lapses. The single strongest data point is Burnley’s run of five straight BTTS games, suggesting a lively contest. The main risk is overrating Burnley’s edge given their leaky back line and Notts County’s ability to score in bursts.
Burnley vs Notts County: Common Questions
Who will win Burnley vs Notts County?
The model gives Burnley a 54% chance of winning, with Notts County at 20% and the draw at 26%. The bookmakers are more bullish on Burnley, but recent form suggests the gap may be smaller than the odds imply.
Will both teams score in Burnley vs Notts County?
There’s a 54% probability for both teams to score, supported by Burnley’s record of BTTS in all five recent matches and Notts County’s 1.8 goals per game average in pre-season.
Is there value in backing Burnley at the current odds?
At 1.57 (implied 64%), the market is more confident in Burnley than the model’s 54% probability. This suggests the price is a little short, and value hunters may want to look elsewhere or reduce stake size.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burnley vs Notts County: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 1 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.