Burnley vs Wolves Predictions
Premier League · England
Burnley
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Wolves
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7/10Burnley Held by Wolves in Entertaining Turf Moor Stalemate
Burnley and Wolves played out a 1-1 draw at Turf Moor in a match that saw both sides create ample opportunities but ultimately fail to find a decisive winner. Wolves struck early through Adam Armstrong in the 5th minute, capitalizing on a swift attacking move to put the visitors ahead. Burnley responded just after the break, with Zian Flemming leveling the score in the 47th minute, setting the stage for an open and competitive second half. Despite Burnley's dominance in possession, controlling 70% of the ball and firing 8 shots on target from 16 attempts, they were unable to break down Wolves' resilient backline for a second time. Wolves, meanwhile, matched Burnley in total shots (16) but managed only 4 on target, relying on counter-attacks and set pieces to threaten. Both teams had their moments, but disciplined defending and solid goalkeeping ensured the points were shared.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
1 - 1
💰 Bet Results2/3 hit
Key Moments
5' — Goal
Adam Armstrong puts Wolves ahead with an early strike.
47' — Goal
Zian Flemming levels for Burnley shortly after halftime.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up two yellow cards each in a competitive midfield battle.
Burnley
Burnley controlled the tempo for much of the match, enjoying a commanding 70% possession and creating numerous chances, particularly in the second half. Their midfield trio of Florentino Luís, Lesley Ugochukwu, and Hannibal Mejbri dictated play, while Zian Flemming led the line with energy and purpose, netting the crucial equalizer. Despite their attacking intent and 8 shots on target, Burnley were unable to convert their dominance into a winning goal, often frustrated by Wolves' organized defence and the safe hands of José Sá. Defensively, Burnley were caught cold early on, conceding in the 5th minute, but they regrouped well and limited Wolves' clear-cut chances thereafter. The full-backs, Kyle Walker and Lucas Pires, offered width and support in attack, but the final ball was often lacking.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Wolves
Wolves started brightly, taking the lead inside five minutes through Adam Armstrong, and looked dangerous on the break, especially in the opening stages. Operating in a 3-4-2-1 formation, they were content to sit deep and absorb pressure, with the back three of Mosquera, Bueno, and Krejčí standing firm against Burnley's attacks. José Sá was called upon multiple times, making important stops to preserve parity. As Burnley grew into the game, Wolves' attacking threat diminished, but they remained disciplined and organized, matching Burnley in total shots (16) but lacking the same cutting edge in front of goal. Set pieces and counters were their main avenues, but they were unable to capitalize on late opportunities.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Burnley lined up in a 4-2-3-1, focusing on ball retention and building through the midfield. Their double pivot shielded the defence and allowed the attacking trio behind Flemming to find pockets of space, particularly as Wolves dropped deeper after their early goal. The full-backs pushed high, providing width, but Wolves' compact shape limited clear-cut opportunities. Wolves' 3-4-2-1 prioritized defensive solidity and quick transitions. After taking the lead, they sat in a low block, inviting Burnley forward and looking to spring counters through Hwang Hee-chan and Armstrong. The midfield duo worked tirelessly to disrupt Burnley's rhythm, but as the game wore on, Wolves struggled to maintain possession, relying more on set pieces and sporadic breaks.
Turning Point
Zian Flemming's equalizer just after halftime shifted momentum firmly in Burnley's favor, setting up a dominant second-half display.
Man of the Match
Zian Flemming
Led the line with purpose, scored the crucial equalizer, and was Burnley's main attacking threat throughout.
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Expected goals · model says 1.20
Expected goals · model says 1.00
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
44%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Burnley vs Wolves Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Burnley vs Wolves?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Burnley vs Wolves(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Draw
Both teams are in poor form, with Wolves failing to win away all season and Burnley struggling at home. The high draw probability reflects the likelihood of a cagey, low-quality match with little separating the sides.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Both teams average less than a goal per game in recent matches and have struggled to create chances, with a combined 0.5 goals scored per game over their last 5. A low-scoring encounter is likely.
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BTTS: No
Wolves have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, and Burnley have failed to score in 2 of their last 5. With both attacks misfiring and high defensive urgency, a clean sheet for at least one side is probable.
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More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Burnley vs Wolves Prediction
This is a bottom-of-the-table clash between two teams who have endured difficult seasons. Burnley have shown slightly more attacking intent at home, but both sides are winless in their last five and have major issues in front of goal. With Wolves still seeking their first away win and Burnley desperate to avoid finishing bottom, expect a tense, low-scoring affair where neither side has the quality to dominate.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Head-to-head meetings are generally low scoring, with 5 of last 10 finishing under 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Burnley have only 2 home wins and have conceded 28 in 18 home games.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Wolves have not won away all season (0W, 5D, 13L, 7 GF, 33 GA).
- →Both teams have failed to score in multiple recent matches (Wolves 4/5, Burnley 2/5).
- →Last 5 averages: Burnley 0.8 GF, 2.4 GA; Wolves 0.2 GF, 2.4 GA.
🚩 Burnley vs Wolves Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.7 corners for Burnley and 4 for Wolves, for an expected total of 8.7. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (63%). Over 8.5: 50% · Over 10.5: 26%.
How Burnley and Wolves Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Burnley vs Wolves Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Burnleylast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Wolveslast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Burnley are winless in their last five (DLLLL), but did manage a 2-2 draw at home to Aston Villa, showing some attacking spark. Wolves are also in poor form (LDLLL), scoring just once in their last five and losing four, including heavy defeats to West Ham and Brighton. Both teams are lacking confidence and momentum heading into this match.
Burnley vs Wolves — Last 10 Matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Struggling to score — 0.2 goals/game
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Burnley vs Wolves
The head-to-head record is relatively balanced, with Burnley slightly ahead. Recent meetings have included both high-scoring and low-scoring games, but the majority have been close. Notably, Wolves have struggled at Turf Moor, failing to win in their last three visits.
Burnley vs Wolves Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Burnley wins
3
Draws
3
Wolves wins
Things to Watch: Burnley vs Wolves
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided, so value analysis is limited.
- ⚠️Both teams may experiment with lineups on the final day, increasing unpredictability.
- ⚠️Motivation may be affected by confirmed relegation status or other end-of-season factors.
- ⚠️Low confidence in goal markets due to potential for defensive errors in a low-pressure match.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Burnley vs Wolves: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 May 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.