Newcastle vs Hull City Predictions
Premier League · England
Newcastle
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 0
Hull City
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Draw
@ 4.75(+38% edge)
Match Result
7.8/10Newcastle Survive Hull Onslaught for Narrow 2-1 Victory at St James' Park
Newcastle United made a blistering start at St James' Park, racing into a 2-0 lead within the opening seven minutes against Hull City. Early goals gave the hosts a cushion, but Hull responded strongly, particularly in the second half, and pulled one back in the 67th minute to set up a tense finale. Despite Hull's dominance in shot count and a late surge, Newcastle held firm to secure all three points. The Magpies controlled possession with 56% and looked clinical early, but were forced to dig deep as Hull City pressed relentlessly, firing 21 shots to Newcastle's 11. Four yellow cards for the visitors reflected their aggressive approach, but ultimately, their lack of cutting edge in front of goal cost them dearly as Newcastle's defense and goalkeeper L. Horníček stood tall.
😅 AI Prediction Report
CLOSE BUT NO CIGARPredicted
1 - 0
Actual
2 - 1
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
3' — Goal
Newcastle open the scoring, seizing early initiative at home.
7' — Goal
Newcastle double their lead, putting Hull on the back foot.
67' — Goal
O. McBurnie pulls one back for Hull, setting up a tense finale.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Hull City pick up four yellow cards as they chase the game and increase their physicality.
Newcastle
Newcastle started with intensity, capitalizing on early opportunities to build a quick two-goal lead. Their 4-2-3-1 formation allowed for fluid transitions and effective pressing in the opening stages. However, after the break, the Magpies found themselves under sustained pressure and had to rely on disciplined defending and key interventions from their back line and goalkeeper. Despite conceding in the second half, they managed the game well to see out a hard-fought win.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Hull City
Hull City were rocked by Newcastle's rapid start and found themselves two goals down almost before the match had settled. However, their response was impressive: shifting the momentum and creating a barrage of chances, particularly after halftime. Their 5-4-1 setup provided defensive solidity but limited attacking options early on. As the game progressed, they committed more men forward, reflected in their 21 shots and 7 corners, but were ultimately unable to convert enough chances to salvage a point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Newcastle's 4-2-3-1 formation allowed them to press high and exploit spaces between Hull's defensive lines in the opening stages. The double pivot provided stability, while the attacking trio behind Wissa created overloads in the final third. However, after their early goals, Newcastle became more conservative, sitting deeper and inviting pressure. Hull City started with a 5-4-1, aiming for defensive solidity, but the system left them short-handed in attack early on. As the match progressed and they fell behind, Hull pushed their wing-backs higher and committed midfielders forward, resulting in a flurry of shots and set pieces. Their aggressive pressing forced Newcastle into mistakes, but a lack of clinical finishing and composure in the box proved costly.
Turning Point
Newcastle's second goal in the 7th minute gave them a crucial cushion, allowing them to withstand Hull's subsequent onslaught.
Man of the Match
L. Horníček
Produced several key saves, especially as Hull pressed for an equalizer, and commanded his area with authority.
Newcastle vs Hull City: Match Preview
Newcastle return to St. James' Park having drawn both of their home league fixtures this season, conceding four goals across those games. Hull City, meanwhile, sit third in the table after a robust start, boasting two wins and a draw without conceding a single goal. Both sides remain unbeaten, but Newcastle’s attacking output at home (four goals in two) has been offset by defensive lapses, while Hull’s pragmatic approach has yielded results despite limited possession and chance creation.
Statistically, this is a clash of Newcastle’s proactive, high-shot attack (14.6 shots, 4.2 on target per game over the last five) against Hull’s deep block, which has allowed just 0.2 goals per game and kept four clean sheets in their last five outings. Hull’s matches have been extremely tight, with all three league games going under 2.5 goals and only one goal scored in total away from home. Newcastle have yet to keep a home clean sheet, but have also failed to be shut out themselves, suggesting a test of Hull’s defensive resolve.
The model expects Newcastle to control territory and shot volume, but Hull’s compactness and set-piece threat (3.6 corners per game, despite low possession) make them awkward opponents. With both teams’ recent patterns pointing towards low-scoring, hard-fought matches, the value sits with the unders and the draw, especially as the market appears to underrate Hull’s defensive ceiling.
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Newcastle vs Hull City
The market is heavily behind Newcastle, pricing them at 1.48 (68% implied), but the model sees them closer to 53% with Hull’s defensive numbers making this much more competitive. The draw and under 2.5 goals are both substantially overpriced by the market, and 'both teams to score: no' stands out as the clearest value given Hull’s clean sheet streak and Newcastle’s home scoring inconsistency.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Where the Model Sees Value: Newcastle vs Hull City(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 2.02
Hull City have kept clean sheets in all three league matches and have conceded just 0.2 goals per game over their last five, while Newcastle have only failed to score once in that span but face a disciplined defence; the model gives 'no' a 67% chance versus the market's 50% implied probability.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5@ 2.3
Hull City's matches have yet to see more than two goals (0% over 2.5), and Newcastle face a side averaging just 0.2 goals conceded per game; the model projects under 2.5 at 59% against an implied 43.5%.
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Match Result: Draw@ 4.6
Both sides are unbeaten in the league and Newcastle have drawn both home games so far; the model sees a 29% draw probability versus the market's 21% implied, offering significant value.
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Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Newcastle vs Hull City that most previews miss.
- 1Hull City have not conceded a single league goal in 270 minutes, with their last five matches averaging just 0.2 goals against.
- 2Newcastle have drawn both home league games this season, conceding exactly two goals in each.
- 3All three of Hull City’s league matches have finished under 2.5 goals, with a combined total of just three goals scored.
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Expected goals · model says 1.50
Expected goals · model says 0.80
Over 2.5 Goals
40%
BTTS: Yes
43%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 1-1 · 2-0
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The Case For This Newcastle vs Hull City Prediction
Bookmakers have installed Newcastle as clear favourites, but the data paints a far more balanced picture. Hull City’s defensive discipline and Newcastle’s inability to convert home advantage into wins so far suggest a tight, low-scoring contest, with value skewed towards the draw and unders markets.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Hull City have kept three consecutive clean sheets in the league.
- →Newcastle are unbeaten but have drawn both home league matches, conceding twice in each.
- →Hull’s matches average just 1 goal per game (3 scored, 0 conceded in 3 matches), with 0% over 2.5 goals.
🚩 Newcastle vs Hull City Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.5 corners for Newcastle and 5.8 for Hull City, for an expected total of 10.3. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (58%). Over 8.5: 70% · Over 10.5: 45%.
How Newcastle and Hull City Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Newcastle vs Hull City Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Newcastlelast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Hull Citylast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Newcastle are unbeaten in their last five across all competitions (WDWWD), but have been frustrated at home with two consecutive league draws. Hull City’s form is even more impressive defensively, with four clean sheets in their last five and two wins from three in the league, though their attack has been blunt, averaging just 0.6 goals per game recently.
Newcastle vs Hull City — Last 3 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
- +100% clean sheet rate this season
Concerns
- −Struggling to score — 0.6 goals/game
What History Says: Newcastle vs Hull City
Historically, Newcastle have had the better of this fixture, winning three of the last six meetings, but the most recent encounters are dated and offer limited predictive value. Draws have been common, with two of the last six ending level and three decided by a single goal.
Newcastle vs Hull City Head-to-Head History
Last 6 meetings between these sides
3
Newcastle wins
2
Draws
1
Hull City wins
Things to Watch: Newcastle vs Hull City
- ⚠️Early season sample sizes are small; both teams may still be settling tactically.
- ⚠️Newcastle’s attack has been varied, but Hull’s defensive numbers may be flattered by limited opposition so far.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not yet confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Newcastle 1–0 Hull CityThe model calls this 1-0 to Newcastle, but the strongest data point is Hull’s defensive record: three clean sheets, just 0.2 goals conceded per game over the last five. If Hull maintain that discipline and Newcastle’s home attack continues to misfire, a goalless draw or narrow win either way is plausible.
Newcastle vs Hull City: Common Questions
Who will win Newcastle vs Hull City?
The model gives Newcastle a 53% chance of victory, with a 29% probability for the draw and Hull City at 18%. Newcastle’s home draws and Hull’s defensive strength suggest a much closer contest than the odds imply.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Hull City?
Both teams to score is rated just 33% likely by the model, with Hull City yet to concede in the league and Newcastle averaging two goals per game but facing a disciplined defence. The market’s 50% implied probability for 'no' offers value.
Is there value in betting the draw or under 2.5 goals?
Yes, the model finds significant value in both the draw (29% model probability vs 21% implied at 4.75 odds) and under 2.5 goals (59% model vs 43.5% implied at 2.3 odds), reflecting both teams’ low-scoring trends and defensive solidity.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Newcastle vs Hull City: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Value Scout, the market-facing profile — hunts the gap between price and probability. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 12 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.