Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Predictions
Premier League · Wales
Caernarfon Town
AI Predicted Score
1 - 2
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 1.85(+11% edge)
Recommended Bets: Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: Match Preview
Caernarfon Town host Connah's Quay with both sides in the top six, but the visitors arrive with a nine-point cushion and a five-match unbeaten run (WDWWW). Caernarfon have hit a patchy spell, losing their last two, but their home record is still positive (4W, 3L) and they average three goals scored per home game. Connah's Quay, second in the table, have conceded the fewest goals in the league and boast an away record of 5W, 1D, 1L.
Statistically, this is a clash between Caernarfon's prolific attack and Connah's Quay's defensive discipline. Caernarfon average 2.63 goals scored per game but have kept just 25% clean sheets, while Connah's Quay concede only 0.56 per match and have kept four clean sheets in their last five. Caernarfon's matches go over 2.5 goals 75% of the time, and both teams have scored in four of their last five. H2H history also leans towards goals, with seven of the last ten meetings seeing both sides score.
The model expects Connah's Quay's defensive structure to edge a high-tempo contest, with the away side more likely to capitalise on Caernarfon's defensive lapses. However, Caernarfon's attack at home should still pose problems, making a 2-1 away win the likeliest outcome but with a significant chance of a draw if Connah's Quay can't contain the early pressure.
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Expected goals · model says 1.25
Expected goals · model says 1.70
Over 2.5 Goals
57%
BTTS: Yes
58%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-2 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC that most previews miss.
- 1Caernarfon's home matches average 4.14 goals per game, highest among the top six.
- 2Connah's Quay have kept four clean sheets in their last five league outings, conceding just once in that run.
- 3Four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, with both teams scoring in seven.
Who do you think wins: Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 1.85
Both sides average over 2 goals scored per game (Caernarfon Town 2.63, Connah's Quay 2.13), and Caernarfon's matches have gone over 2.5 goals in 75% of fixtures this season.
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BTTS: Yes@ 2
BTTS has landed in 4 of Caernarfon's last 5 and both teams have failed to score just once each in their last 5, suggesting both attacks are likely to find the net.
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Match Result: Draw@ 3.3
Four of the last ten H2H meetings have ended level, and the model gives the draw a 32% chance, above the market's implied 30%.
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The Case For This Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Prediction
Connah's Quay arrive with the league's best defensive record and strong away form, while Caernarfon Town's attack ensures a competitive contest. The statistical profile points to a match with goals, but Connah's Quay's defensive solidity could be decisive.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Caernarfon Town's home games average 4.14 total goals, with 75% finishing over 2.5 goals.
Defence
- →Connah's Quay have conceded just 6 goals in 7 away matches (0.86 per game), the league's best away defensive rate.
- →Connah's Quay are on a five-match unbeaten run (WDWWW) and have kept four clean sheets in their last five.
How Caernarfon Town and GAP Connah S Quay FC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Caernarfon Townlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Regular contributor
Regular contributor
GAP Connah S Quay FClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Caernarfon Town have lost their last two league matches but had won three straight prior, reflecting inconsistency. Connah's Quay, by contrast, are unbeaten in five (WDWWW) and have conceded just one goal in that stretch, indicating strong momentum and defensive solidity.
Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 75% of games this season
Concerns
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +4/5 wins in last 5 — excellent form
- +Prolific attack — 2.0 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.2 conceded/game
- +4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
Head-to-head encounters have been close, with four draws in the last ten and both teams scoring in seven of those matches. Caernarfon won the reverse fixture 2-1 earlier this season, but Connah's Quay took the points in their last visit to The Oval with a 4-2 victory.
Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
4
Caernarfon Town wins
4
Draws
2
GAP Connah S Quay FC wins
Things to Watch: Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC
- ⚠️No shot, possession or set-piece data available for either side limits precision on attacking/defensive volume.
- ⚠️Recent form sample is small and may not fully capture current tactical or personnel shifts.
- ⚠️Market odds are not available for all markets; value estimates are based on typical odds for this league.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Caernarfon Town 1–2 GAP Connah S Quay FCConnah's Quay's league-best defensive record and strong away form give them a narrow edge, with the model projecting a 2-1 away win. The single strongest data point is Connah's Quay's concession rate of just 0.56 per game over the season. The main risk is Caernarfon's attacking output at home, which could force a higher-scoring draw if the visitors' defence is breached early.
Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: Common Questions
Who will win Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC?
The model gives Connah's Quay a 45% chance of victory, with Caernarfon at 23% and the draw at 32%. Connah's Quay's defensive record and recent form tip the balance slightly in their favour.
Will both teams score in Caernarfon Town vs Connah S Quay?
There is a 54% probability of both teams scoring, supported by Caernarfon's BTTS record (4 of last 5) and both sides' strong attacking rates.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Caernarfon Town vs Connah S Quay?
The model puts the chance of over 2.5 goals at 60%, with Caernarfon's matches going over that line in 75% of league games this season.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 November 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
More Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Resources
Caernarfon Town Predictions
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GAP Connah S Quay FC Predictions
All GAP Connah S Quay FC fixtures & tips
Caernarfon Town vs GAP Connah S Quay FC Stats
Full H2H record & season stats
Premier League Predictions
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Model Accuracy
Track record & verified results