Cagliari vs Nice Predictions
Friendlies Clubs · World
Cagliari
AI Predicted Score
1 - 1
Nice
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Cagliari vs Nice: Match Preview
Cagliari arrive unbeaten in pre-season, having drawn twice and edged Modena 1-0 at home, while their late-season Serie A form included a notable 2-1 win at AC Milan. Nice, meanwhile, have displayed a sharper attack with seven goals in three friendlies, including a 3-0 win at Marseille, but were shut out 2-0 by Juventus last time out. With both sides posting strong defensive numbers—each conceding just 0.67 goals per game—neither enters with obvious vulnerabilities.
Statistically, this match projects as a low-tempo contest. Cagliari have averaged only 7.6 shots and 2.8 on target per game in their last five, while Nice's shot output is even lower at 4.8 and 2.0, respectively. Corners and fouls are both well below typical competitive averages, with each side earning around two corners and committing fewer than four fouls per game. Both teams have kept two clean sheets in their last three, and Cagliari's matches have gone under 2.5 goals in two of three pre-season outings.
Given these numbers, the model expects a balanced, low-scoring affair. The most likely scenario is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline the modal result. Both sides' defensive discipline and lack of attacking volume reduce the probability of a high-scoring or wide-margin outcome, making under 2.5 goals and draw-based markets the statistical standouts.
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Expected goals · model says 1.10
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
38%
BTTS: Yes
45%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 0-1 · 1-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cagliari vs Nice Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cagliari vs Nice that most previews miss.
- 1Cagliari and Nice have each kept two clean sheets in their last three pre-season matches (66.7%).
- 2Across their last five, Cagliari average just 7.6 shots per game while Nice average only 4.8, well below top-league norms.
- 3Only one of Cagliari's last three matches has featured over 2.5 goals, while Nice have failed to score in two of their last five.
Who do you think wins: Cagliari vs Nice?
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Where the Model Sees Value: Cagliari vs Nice(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average under 1 goal conceded per game across their last five, and each has a 66.7% clean sheet rate this pre-season. The distribution of results and low shot and corner volumes point to a low-scoring, balanced contest.
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Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Cagliari's matches have gone under 2.5 goals in two of three pre-season games (33% over 2.5), while Nice's defensive record is strong, conceding just 0.67 per game. The model assigns a 59% probability to under 2.5 goals.
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The Case For This Cagliari vs Nice Prediction
Statistically, this friendly projects as a low-event, tightly contested fixture. Both Cagliari and Nice have posted strong defensive numbers in pre-season, with each side keeping two clean sheets in their last three games and conceding less than a goal per match on average. Attack output is modest for Cagliari (1.0 goals per game), while Nice have shown more scoring punch (2.33), but much of that came against weaker opposition. The matchup tilts towards a midfield battle, with Cagliari averaging just 7.6 shots and 2.8 on target per game, and Nice only marginally higher at 4.8 shots and 2 on target. Both sides' last five matches average fewer than five corners and under one card per game, further supporting a controlled tempo. Cagliari have failed to score in just one of their last five, while Nice have blanked twice, but both sides' clean sheet rates (66.7%) suggest limited clear chances. Given the defensive solidity and lack of set-piece or attacking volume, the model expects a match where neither side dominates. The likeliest outcome is a draw, with a 1-1 scoreline the modal result. If either side edges it, a single-goal margin is most probable, with the odds of a high-scoring contest notably low.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Both teams have a 66.7% clean sheet rate in pre-season.
- →Cagliari average just 1.0 goal scored and 0.67 conceded per game this summer.
- →Nice have scored 7 goals in 3 games, but 4 came against Nimes; against Juventus and Marseille, they scored 3 and conceded 2.
🚩 Cagliari vs Nice Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5 corners for Cagliari and 5.4 for Nice, for an expected total of 10.4. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 71% · Over 10.5: 47%.
How Cagliari and Nice Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cagliari vs Nice Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cagliarilast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Nicelast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cagliari are unbeaten in their last five, including two wins to close the Serie A season and two draws in pre-season friendlies. Nice have won three of their last five, scoring seven in their last three, but were blanked by Juventus in their most recent outing. Both sides' defensive records are strong, with each conceding less than a goal per game over the last five.
Cagliari vs Nice — Last 4 Matches
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +75% clean sheet rate this season
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
- +Defensively solid — 0.6 conceded/game
- +3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Cagliari vs Nice
There is no head-to-head data available for this fixture, so no historical trend or recurring scoreline can be referenced.
Cagliari vs Nice Head-to-Head History
Last 1 meeting between these sides
0
Cagliari wins
1
Draws
0
Nice wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Cagliari vs Nice
Bookmaker odds are unavailable for this match, so no value edges can be identified. The model's strongest statistical lean is towards under 2.5 goals and the draw, both supported by low shot and goal rates from both teams.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Cagliari vs Nice
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds are available, so value calculations and expected value cannot be determined.
- ⚠️No head-to-head or league standing data is available, limiting context on historical matchup or competitive stakes.
- ⚠️Pre-season friendlies can feature heavy squad rotation and variable intensity, increasing result volatility.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cagliari 1–1 NiceThe model calls this a low-scoring draw, with 1-1 the likeliest result, driven by both sides' 66.7% clean sheet rates and modest shot volumes. The main risk is Nice's occasional attacking outbursts against weaker opposition, which could swing the goal count higher if Cagliari rotate heavily or lose defensive structure.
Cagliari vs Nice: Common Questions
Who will win Cagliari vs Nice?
The model rates this as a near-even contest: Cagliari win 32%, draw 37%, Nice win 31%. The most likely result is a draw, with both teams showing strong defensive records in pre-season.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Cagliari vs Nice?
Under 2.5 goals is favoured at 59% probability, with both teams conceding less than a goal per game and Cagliari's matches going over 2.5 just once in three pre-season games.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Nice?
Both teams to score is rated at 48%, with the 'No' slightly more likely at 52%. Each side has kept two clean sheets in their last three, suggesting limited attacking opportunities.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cagliari vs Nice: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 3 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.