Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC Predictions
Premier League · Wales
Cardiff MET
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Haverfordwest County AFC
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Match Result: Cardiff MET Win
Recommended Bets: Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC: Match Preview
Cardiff MET return to Cyncoed Campus looking to rebound from a narrow 0-1 defeat away at Connah's Quay, having picked up eight points from their last five matches. They sit 10th in the table, four points clear of Haverfordwest, who have put together a mini-revival with three wins in their last four, including a 1-0 home victory over Holywell. Both sides are mid-table, but Cardiff MET's superior goal difference (+8) and home scoring record give them a platform to build on.
Statistically, the matchup is defined by Cardiff MET's attacking output at home (11 goals in 4 matches) against a Haverfordwest defence that has conceded five in three away games. Haverfordwest's away attack is blunt, averaging just 0.33 goals per game, while Cardiff MET's defence concedes two per home match. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cardiff MET's league games, but Haverfordwest's matches are lower scoring, with just 44% seeing three or more goals. Both teams tend to score more after the break, with 7 of Cardiff MET's last 11 goals coming in the second half.
The model expects Cardiff MET's attacking rates and home advantage to outweigh the historical H2H trend of draws and away wins. Haverfordwest's recent form uptick is noted, but their season-long rates remain poor away from home. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, with the most plausible deviation being another low-scoring draw if Cardiff MET fail to convert their chances.
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Expected goals · model says 1.60
Expected goals · model says 1.15
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
55%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC that most previews miss.
- 1Cardiff MET have scored in every home match this season, averaging 2.75 goals at Cyncoed Campus.
- 2Haverfordwest have failed to score in two of their three away games and average just 0.33 goals on the road.
- 3Six of the last ten H2H meetings have ended in draws, with three finishing 1-1.
Who do you think wins: Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Cardiff MET Win
Cardiff MET's home scoring rate (2.75 goals per home game) and Haverfordwest's away attack (0.33 goals per away game) point to a significant home edge, even with a balanced H2H history.
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Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Combined season averages (Cardiff MET 2.11 GF, 1.22 GA; Haverfordwest 0.78 GF, 1.56 GA) and 55.56% home over 2.5 rate suggest a slightly goal-positive environment.
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BTTS: Yes
BTTS has landed in 3 of Haverfordwest's last 5 and 2 of Cardiff MET's last 5; defensive reliability is limited on both sides.
More Premier League Predictions
The Case For This Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC Prediction
Cardiff MET's robust home attack, averaging 2.75 goals per game at Cyncoed Campus, faces a Haverfordwest side that has struggled for goals on the road (0.33 per away game) but arrives with back-to-back wins. The statistical shape points to a moderate goal environment, with Cardiff MET's games going over 2.5 goals 56% of the time this season and Haverfordwest conceding an average of 1.56 per match. While the head-to-head record is draw-heavy, the underlying rates tilt this in favour of the hosts.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Cardiff MET's home scoring rate (2.75 per game) is more than eight times Haverfordwest's away output (0.33 per game).
Match Context
- →Haverfordwest have managed just one away goal in three matches this season.
- →Six of the last ten meetings have ended level, but Cardiff MET have not won any of those.
How Cardiff MET and Haverfordwest County AFC Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Cardiff METlast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Scoring consistently
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Haverfordwest County AFClast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cardiff MET have taken eight points from their last five games (W2 D2 L1), including a 5-0 away win at Ammanford and a 3-0 home victory over Briton Ferry, but were edged out last time by Connah's Quay. Haverfordwest have improved recently with three wins in their last four, but their away form remains a concern with just one goal scored in three away matches this season.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.2 goals/game (last 5)
Strengths
- +Solid recent form — 3+ wins in last 5
What History Says: Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC
The H2H record is notable for its lack of Cardiff MET wins, with Haverfordwest claiming four victories and six draws in the last ten meetings. Draws have been frequent, and three of the last six encounters have finished 1-1. Cardiff MET have failed to score in three of the last five at home to Haverfordwest.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
0
Cardiff MET wins
6
Draws
4
Haverfordwest County AFC wins
Things to Watch: Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC
- ⚠️Odds are unavailable, so value and expected value cannot be calculated.
- ⚠️No shots, corners, or possession data available; all estimates are rate-based.
- ⚠️Haverfordwest's recent upturn (WWDWL) could signal improvement not yet reflected in season-long rates.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Cardiff MET 2–1 Haverfordwest County AFCCardiff MET are projected to edge this contest 2-1, driven by their strong home scoring rate and Haverfordwest's lack of away attacking threat. The single strongest data point is Cardiff MET's 2.75 goals per home game versus Haverfordwest's 0.33 away. The likeliest way this prediction fails is if the H2H draw pattern persists and Cardiff MET are frustrated by a compact Haverfordwest setup.
Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC: Common Questions
Who will win Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC?
Cardiff MET are favoured with a 46% win probability, compared to 23% for Haverfordwest and 31% for the draw. The home side's attacking rates and Haverfordwest's away struggles underpin this edge.
Will both teams score in Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest?
Both teams to score is rated at 56%, with Cardiff MET conceding in three of four home games and Haverfordwest scoring in three of their last five overall.
Is over 2.5 goals likely in Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest?
Over 2.5 goals is slightly favoured at 54%, based on Cardiff MET's 56% season over rate and their average of 2.75 goals per home match.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Cardiff MET vs Haverfordwest County AFC: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 22 September 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.
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