Ceara vs Botafogo SP Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Ceara
Full Time
0 - 1
AI predicted 2 - 0
Botafogo SP
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 1.8(+15% edge)
Match Result
6/10Late Strike Seals Botafogo SP Victory Over Ceara in Fortaleza
A tense and tightly contested affair in Fortaleza saw Botafogo SP snatch all three points with a decisive goal in the 77th minute, edging out Ceara 1-0 in this Serie B encounter. The match was characterized by disciplined defending and physical battles, with both teams struggling to carve out clear-cut chances for much of the game. Ceara, playing at home, were unable to break down a resolute Botafogo SP backline, and their frustration was compounded as the visitors capitalized late on. The closing stages saw tempers flare, with a total of five yellow cards issued, but Botafogo SP held firm to secure a valuable away win.
💪 AI Prediction Report
DECENT HITPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
0 - 1
💰 Bet Results1/2 hit
Key Moments
77' — Goal
Botafogo SP break the deadlock with a crucial goal, putting the visitors ahead late in the match.
Various' — Yellow Cards
A total of five yellow cards were shown (2 to Ceara, 3 to Botafogo SP), reflecting the match's physical nature.
Ceara
Ceara put in a spirited display but ultimately lacked the cutting edge in the final third to trouble Botafogo SP's defense. Despite home advantage, they failed to find the net and were punished late in the game. Their discipline also wavered, picking up two yellow cards in a physical contest.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Botafogo SP
Botafogo SP executed their game plan effectively, absorbing pressure and waiting for their moment to strike. Their patience paid off with a crucial goal in the 77th minute, and they managed the game well thereafter despite picking up three yellow cards. Their defensive solidity and clinical finishing made the difference.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
With both teams' lineups and formations unavailable, the match's flow suggested a cautious approach from both sides, prioritizing defensive solidity over attacking risk. Botafogo SP appeared content to sit deep and frustrate Ceara, looking to exploit opportunities on the break or from set pieces. The high card count highlighted the physical battles in midfield, and both teams struggled to generate sustained attacking momentum. Substitutions and tactical tweaks late on could not alter Ceara's fortunes, while Botafogo SP's late goal allowed them to drop deeper and protect their lead.
Turning Point
The 77th-minute goal for Botafogo SP, which broke the deadlock and ultimately decided the contest.
Man of the Match
Botafogo SP goalscorer
Delivered the decisive moment with the only goal of the match, securing a vital away win.
🎮 Prediction Playground
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Expected goals · model says 1.40
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
35%
BTTS: Yes
38%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 0-0 · 1-1
Play this match once with the probabilities above — every run is different.
Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ceara vs Botafogo SP Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Who do you think wins: Ceara vs Botafogo SP?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ceara vs Botafogo SP(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
BTTS: No@ 1.8
Botafogo SP have failed to score in 4 of their last 5, while Ceara's defense is generally solid at home. Only 1 of Botafogo SP's last 5 saw BTTS, and the model sees a strong likelihood of at least one clean sheet.
Read more ↓
Match Result: Ceara Win@ 2
Ceara have won 3 of 4 H2H, have a stronger home record, and Botafogo SP are on a poor run with just 2 away goals all season. Model probability (0.52) edges the likely value if odds are at or above even money.
Read more ↓
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Ceara vs Botafogo SP Prediction
Ceara enter this fixture with a patchy but superior recent record, especially at home, while Botafogo SP are struggling badly in attack and have lost four of their last five. Ceara's offensive metrics and home advantage suggest they should control the game, with Botafogo SP likely to sit deep and struggle to create clear chances. The head-to-head history is strongly in Ceara's favor, and the model expects a low-scoring affair with the home side prevailing.
Key Factors at a Glance
Recent Form
- →Botafogo SP have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.
Attack
- →Ceara average 1.2 goals scored and 16.8 shots per game in their last 5, compared to Botafogo SP's 0.2 goals and 12.2 shots.
- →H2H: Ceara have won 3 of the last 4 meetings, scoring 3+ in each home match vs Botafogo SP.
- →Both teams have below-average over 2.5 rates (Ceara 41.7%, Botafogo SP 33.3%), indicating a low-scoring trend.
Injuries & Team News
- →No significant injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Ceara have a positive home record (3W, 2D, 2L) and have scored 10 in 7 home games.
🚩 Ceara vs Botafogo SP Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 6 corners for Ceara and 7.2 for Botafogo SP, for an expected total of 13.2. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (85%). Over 8.5: 91% · Over 10.5: 77%.
How Ceara and Botafogo SP Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ceara vs Botafogo SP Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games.
Cearalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Botafogo SPlast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ceara's recent form is mixed (WLLWL), but they come off a home win and have shown attacking intent with high shot volumes. Botafogo SP are on a poor run (LDLLL), scoring just once in five matches and failing to find the net in their last three away games. Ceara's home advantage and attacking numbers contrast sharply with Botafogo SP's lack of cutting edge.
Ceara vs Botafogo SP — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Ceara vs Botafogo SP
Ceara have a strong head-to-head record, winning 3 of the last 4, including both home games with 3+ goals scored. Botafogo SP have struggled badly in this matchup, failing to win any of the last four and conceding heavily on the road to Ceara.
Ceara vs Botafogo SP Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
3
Ceara wins
1
Draws
1
Botafogo SP wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Ceara vs Botafogo SP
The model sees the most value in 'BTTS: No', with a strong probability edge over typical market odds, given Botafogo SP's attacking woes. Draw also shows a small edge if priced above 3.30. Home win value is marginal but present if odds are at or above even money, as the model rates Ceara's win probability higher than the likely market.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Ceara vs Botafogo SP
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds provided; value estimates are illustrative.
- ⚠️Ceara's form is inconsistent, with recent home losses and a high card count.
- ⚠️Botafogo SP's away defense is not poor (6 conceded in 7), so a low-scoring draw is possible.
- ⚠️Lineups are unknown at this stage; late changes could impact expected goal output.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ceara vs Botafogo SP: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 13 June 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.