Ceara vs Cuiaba Predictions
Serie B · Brazil
Ceara
Full Time
0 - 0
AI predicted 1 - 1
Cuiaba
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Match Result
7.5/10Cuiabá Stun Ceará with Ruthless Away Display in Fortaleza
Cuiabá delivered a clinical performance at the Estádio Governador Plácido Castelo, dispatching Ceará 3-1 in a match that saw the visitors outmaneuver their hosts despite having just 36% possession. The away side struck first through Jean Dias in the 41st minute, then doubled their lead early in the second half. Ceará responded with a goal in the 70th minute, briefly igniting hopes of a comeback, but Cuiabá sealed the result with a late third goal in stoppage time. Ceará controlled the ball for long stretches, boasting 64% possession and working 4 corners, but struggled to turn dominance into clear chances, managing just 7 shots with 3 on target. In contrast, Cuiabá were incisive on the break, firing 14 shots (5 on target) and punishing Ceará's defensive lapses. The match was competitive and physical, with both sides picking up yellow cards, but ultimately Cuiabá’s efficiency in front of goal made the difference.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
1 - 1
Actual
1 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/3 hit
Key Moments
41' — Goal
Jean Dias opens the scoring for Cuiabá, finishing a swift counter-attack.
54' — Goal
Pedro Henrique doubles Cuiabá's lead early in the second half.
70' — Goal
Lucca pulls one back for Ceará, giving the hosts hope.
90' — Goal
Cuiabá seal the win with a late third goal, extinguishing any hopes of a Ceará comeback.
Ceara
Ceará started brightly, dictating play with their 4-2-3-1 formation and enjoying the lion’s share of possession. However, their inability to create high-quality chances proved costly. Despite pulling a goal back in the 70th minute, Ceará’s attacking efforts were largely blunted by Cuiabá’s disciplined defense and quick transitions. Defensively, lapses at key moments allowed Cuiabá to capitalize, and the hosts' frustration was evident in their 17 fouls and two yellow cards.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Cuiaba
Cuiabá executed their game plan superbly, sitting deep in a 3-4-2-1 shape and springing forward with pace and precision. Despite seeing less of the ball, they were far more dangerous in attack, registering 14 shots and making the most of their opportunities. Jean Dias opened the scoring before halftime, and the visitors remained ruthless after the break, adding two more goals to seal a statement away win. Cuiabá’s defensive organization and clinical finishing were the foundation of their success.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Ceará lined up in a 4-2-3-1, aiming to dominate the ball and control the tempo. While they succeeded in possession, their attacking midfielders struggled to find space between Cuiabá’s lines, and their lone striker Lucca was often isolated. Cuiabá’s 3-4-2-1 provided defensive solidity, with wingbacks dropping deep to form a back five when out of possession. This allowed them to absorb pressure and break quickly, exploiting the spaces left by Ceará’s advancing full-backs. Set pieces were evenly matched, but Cuiabá’s transitions were the real difference, repeatedly catching Ceará out of shape.
Turning Point
Pedro Henrique’s goal in the 54th minute gave Cuiabá a two-goal cushion and forced Ceará to chase the game, opening up space for further counter-attacks.
Man of the Match
Jean Dias
His opening goal and all-round attacking threat set the tone for Cuiabá's impressive away win.
Ceara vs Cuiaba: Match Preview
Ceara and Cuiaba approach this fixture from the lower half of the Serie B table, separated by just three points after 20 rounds. Ceara’s recent form is erratic, with a 4-3 away win at São Bernardo snapping a four-match winless run, but their home record remains modest at 3-3-4, with only 10 goals scored in 10 matches. Cuiaba, meanwhile, have proven tough to beat but rarely win away, drawing five of ten on the road and averaging just 0.7 goals per away game.
The statistical matchup is defined by low scoring and defensive solidity. Cuiaba’s matches average just 1.5 goals, with a league-best 45% clean sheet rate and only 15% over 2.5 goals. Ceara have managed only one clean sheet in their last five, but their attack is inconsistent, failing to score in three of those games. Both sides average over seven corners per game, but neither converts set pieces at a high rate. Discipline is a minor concern, with both averaging under two yellow cards per match.
Given these underlying rates, the model expects a conservative contest with few clear chances. The most likely outcome is a draw, particularly 1-1, as both sides are more comfortable containing than chasing. A late goal could swing it, but with both teams’ season-long scoring averages hovering around one per game, a low total is strongly favoured.
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Expected goals · model says 0.85
Expected goals · model says 0.70
Over 2.5 Goals
20%
BTTS: Yes
29%
Likely Scores
0-0 · 1-0 · 0-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Ceara vs Cuiaba Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Ceara vs Cuiaba that most previews miss.
- 1Cuiaba’s away matches have produced just 15 goals in 10 games (1.5 per game), the lowest in the division.
- 2Ceara have scored only once in the first half across their last five matches, with five of their last six goals coming after the break.
- 3Across the last five H2H meetings, only one match has seen more than two goals scored.
Who do you think wins: Ceara vs Cuiaba?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Ceara vs Cuiaba(3)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Correct Score: 1–1
Both teams average almost exactly one goal scored per game (Ceara 1.0, Cuiaba 0.75), and both have drawn 40-50% of their league matches, with a 1-1 appearing as the median outcome in their statistical distribution.
Read more ↓
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Cuiaba matches have gone under 2.5 goals in 17 of 20 (85%), and Ceara have failed to score in three of their last five; the model gives a 77% probability for under 2.5, well above typical market averages.
Read more ↓
Double Chance: Ceara or Draw
Ceara have lost fewer than half their home games, and Cuiaba have only two away wins all season; the 1X probability (75%) reflects the home side’s marginal edge in a low-scoring environment.
Read more ↓
More Serie B Predictions
The Case For This Ceara vs Cuiaba Prediction
Statistically, this is a meeting of two of Serie B’s lowest-scoring sides, both trending towards draws and defensive caution. Ceara’s home record (3W, 3D, 4L) is only marginally better than Cuiaba’s away (2W, 5D, 3L), and both sides average just one goal scored per game. The model expects a tight, low-event contest where neither attack consistently breaks down well-organised defences.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Cuiaba’s league matches average just 1.5 total goals, with 85% finishing under 2.5.
Defence
- →Ceara have scored only 10 goals in 10 home matches and kept just two clean sheets.
Match Context
- →Both sides have drawn at least half their matches (Cuiaba 10, Ceara 7 in 20 games).
🚩 Ceara vs Cuiaba Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 5.8 corners for Ceara and 6.3 for Cuiaba, for an expected total of 12.1. That makes the model lean Over 9.5 corners (77%). Over 8.5: 85% · Over 10.5: 67%.
How Ceara and Cuiaba Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Ceara vs Cuiaba Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Cearalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Cuiabalast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Ceara arrive off a rare high-scoring win (4-3 at São Bernardo) but had failed to score in three of their previous four. Their form string (WLDDL) underlines inconsistency, especially at home. Cuiaba have drawn three of their last five (DLLDW), with their attack struggling for output but their defence rarely conceding more than once.
Ceara vs Cuiaba — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +High-volume attack — 15 shots/game
Strengths
- +45% clean sheet rate this season
What History Says: Ceara vs Cuiaba
Ceara are unbeaten in the last five meetings, winning two and drawing three, with four of those matches featuring one or no goals for either side. The most recent encounter ended 2-0 to Ceara away, but the overall trend is for tight, low-scoring games.
Ceara vs Cuiaba Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings between these sides
2
Ceara wins
3
Draws
0
Cuiaba wins
Things to Watch: Ceara vs Cuiaba
- ⚠️No bookmaker odds available, so value cannot be quantified.
- ⚠️Both teams’ recent form is mixed and includes outlier results (e.g., Ceara’s 4-3 win last time out).
- ⚠️Lineups and late injuries are unknown; model assumes typical squad availability.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Ceara 1–1 CuiabaThe model projects a 1-1 draw, underpinned by both teams’ season-long scoring rates (Ceara 1.0, Cuiaba 0.75) and a high frequency of draws (Cuiaba 10 in 20 games). The main risk is a defensive lapse or set-piece swing, but the underlying rates point to a low-scoring stalemate as the median outcome.
Ceara vs Cuiaba: Common Questions
Who will win Ceara vs Cuiaba?
The model gives Ceara a 35% chance to win, Cuiaba a 25% chance, and a draw is most likely at 40%. Both teams have low win rates and a high draw frequency, so a stalemate is favoured.
Will there be over or under 2.5 goals in Ceara vs Cuiaba?
There is a 77% probability of under 2.5 goals, as both teams average around one goal scored per game and Cuiaba matches have finished under 2.5 in 85% of cases this season.
Is both teams to score likely in Ceara vs Cuiaba?
The probability for both teams to score is 41%, with 59% favouring at least one clean sheet. Both teams have failed to score in multiple recent matches, making BTTS less likely than not.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Ceara vs Cuiaba: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 8 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.