Celta Vigo vs Alaves Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Celta Vigo
Full Time
3 - 4
AI predicted 2 - 0
Alaves
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 5.1(+16% edge)
Match Result
9/10Alaves Stun Celta Vigo in Seven-Goal Thriller at Balaídos
Alaves produced a remarkable second-half comeback to defeat Celta Vigo 4-3 in a pulsating encounter at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos. Celta raced into a commanding 3-0 lead inside 37 minutes, only for Alaves to mount an extraordinary turnaround, scoring four unanswered goals—including two in the space of four minutes late on—to snatch all three points. The match was a showcase of attacking football, momentum swings, and defensive frailties from both sides. The hosts looked to be cruising after goals in the 19th, 27th, and 37th minutes, but Alaves pulled one back just before halftime to spark belief. The visitors emerged transformed after the break, pressing higher and punishing Celta's lapses, ultimately completing their comeback with a dramatic late double. Both teams ended with two yellow cards apiece in a fiercely contested affair.
🔥 AI Prediction Report
CERTIFIED WPredicted
2 - 0
Actual
3 - 4
💰 Bet Results1/1 hit
Key Moments
19' — Goal
Ferran Jutglà finishes a sweeping Celta move to make it 1-0.
27' — Goal
Borja Iglesias doubles Celta's lead with a well-taken strike.
37' — Goal
Hugo Álvarez adds a third for Celta, seemingly putting the game out of reach.
45' — Goal
Toni Martínez pulls one back for Alaves just before halftime, shifting the momentum.
50' — Goal
Lucas Boyé scores early in the second half to make it 3-2.
74' — Goal
Carles Aleñá levels for Alaves, completing the comeback.
78' — Goal
Pablo Ibáñez fires Alaves ahead for the first time, sealing a stunning turnaround.
Various' — Yellow Cards
Both teams pick up two bookings each in a fiercely contested match.
Celta Vigo
Celta Vigo started with intent, exploiting their 3-4-3 formation to overload Alaves' flanks and dominate possession with 56%. Their front three were clinical early on, converting three of their five shots on target before halftime. However, defensive discipline unraveled as the match wore on. Despite creating 12 shots and winning four corners, Celta's inability to manage the game after their early lead proved costly. The midfield lost control after the break, and the back three struggled to contain Alaves' resurgent attack.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Alaves
Alaves showed immense character and tactical flexibility to recover from a disastrous opening 37 minutes. Despite trailing 3-0 and holding just 44% possession, they remained dangerous, firing 14 shots (six on target) and making the most of their limited set pieces. The turning point was their goal on the stroke of halftime, which galvanized the team. After the break, Alaves pressed higher, forced errors, and capitalized on Celta's nerves, with relentless attacking play yielding three more goals to seal a famous comeback.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Celta Vigo's 3-4-3 formation gave them early superiority in wide areas, allowing their wing-backs and front three to combine fluidly and overwhelm Alaves' back four. Their high pressing and quick ball circulation led to three first-half goals. However, after conceding just before halftime, Celta struggled to adapt as Alaves increased their pressing intensity and pushed more bodies forward. Alaves' 4-4-2 shifted dynamically in the second half, with midfielders joining the attack and full-backs pushing higher. Their directness and willingness to commit numbers forward unsettled Celta's back three, which became increasingly exposed. The visitors' tactical bravery, combined with clinical finishing, ultimately turned the tide.
Turning Point
Toni Martínez's goal in the 45th minute gave Alaves hope and changed the entire complexion of the match.
Man of the Match
Carles Aleñá
Pulled the strings in midfield, scored the crucial equalizer, and was central to Alaves' comeback.
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Expected goals · model says 1.45
Expected goals · model says 0.60
Over 2.5 Goals
34%
BTTS: Yes
35%
Likely Scores
1-0 · 2-0 · 0-0
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
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Where the Model Sees Value: Celta Vigo vs Alaves(1)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 5.1
Model probability for over 2.5 goals (36%) is significantly higher than the implied probability from odds (19.6%), creating a positive value edge. Both teams have a moderate over 2.5 rate and Celta Vigo's attack is above average, while Alaves' defense is weak away. However, both teams' recent matches trend under, so stake is low.
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The Case For This Celta Vigo vs Alaves Prediction
Celta Vigo come into this match as clear favorites, sitting 6th in La Liga with a solid recent form and a strong home record against Alaves. Alaves, struggling in 17th and with a poor away record, have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last five and rarely threaten on the road. Celta's attack has been consistent, and their defense generally holds up against lower-table sides. Expect a controlled match from the hosts, with a good chance of a clean sheet and a moderate probability of a multi-goal win. The historical H2H is heavily in Celta's favor, especially at Balaídos.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Alaves have just 2 away wins all season and concede 1.57 goals per away game.
- →Celta's last 5: DDLWW, averaging 1.2 goals scored, 1.0 conceded.
- →Alaves' last 5: DLLDD, averaging 1.2 goals scored, 1.8 conceded, 0 clean sheets.
Injuries & Team News
- →No major injuries reported for either side.
Match Context
- →Celta Vigo have lost only 2 of their last 10 home matches vs Alaves (7 wins, 1 loss, 2 draws).
- →Celta have failed to score in 0 of last 5, Alaves in 1 of last 5.
- →Both teams to score has landed in 4 of last 5 for both sides.
🚩 Celta Vigo vs Alaves Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Celta Vigo and 4 for Alaves, for an expected total of 8.8. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (61%). Over 8.5: 52% · Over 10.5: 27%.
How Celta Vigo and Alaves Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Celta Vigolast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Alaveslast 5 matchesNo scorer data yet — available after predictions are regenerated.
Scorer data populates once predictions are regenerated with the updated pipeline.
Celta Vigo vs Alaves — Last 10 Matches
Strengths
- +Dominant in possession — 57% avg
Concerns
- −4/5 losses in last 5 — poor form
- −Leaky defence — 3.0 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
Strengths
- +Prolific attack — 2.4 goals/game (last 5)
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
Concerns
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
- −No clean sheets in last 5 matches
What History Says: Celta Vigo vs Alaves
Celta Vigo vs Alaves Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
6
Celta Vigo wins
2
Draws
2
Alaves wins
Things to Watch: Celta Vigo vs Alaves
- ⚠️Some recent match stats (shots, corners, possession) are missing for Alaves, increasing model uncertainty.
- ⚠️Celta's home record is only average (4W, 5D, 5L), so upset/draw risk is not negligible.
- ⚠️Alaves' BTTS and over 2.5 rates are moderate, but their attack is inconsistent away.
- ⚠️Odds on most markets are very short, limiting value except for over 2.5.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Celta Vigo vs Alaves: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
An AI model analyses that pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 17 March 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.