Sevilla vs Osasuna Predictions
La Liga · Spain
Sevilla
AI Predicted Score
2 - 1
Osasuna
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
@ 2.1(+13% edge)
Recommended Bets: Sevilla vs Osasuna
Sevilla vs Osasuna: Match Preview
Sevilla return to the Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán after a bruising 1-4 defeat at Real Madrid, sitting sixth with 14 points from nine matches. Their recent form is patchy (LDLLW), but their home record is balanced: two wins and two losses, with five goals scored and seven conceded. Osasuna arrive tenth, three points back, and have struggled away from Pamplona, losing three of four and conceding a league-high 15 goals on the road.
The statistical matchup is defined by Osasuna’s leaky away defence (3.75 goals conceded per away game) against a Sevilla side averaging 1.25 goals per home match. Both teams have managed just one clean sheet in their last five, and Sevilla’s last five league games have averaged four goals per match. The over 2.5 goals rate for Sevilla is 66.67%, while Osasuna’s away matches have produced a combined 21 goals in four outings. Set-piece data is modest, with corners per game at 1.8 (Sevilla) and 3.6 (Osasuna) over the last five.
Given these rates, the model expects a match with above-average goal probability, slightly favouring Sevilla due to Osasuna’s defensive frailty away from home. However, Osasuna’s historical success in this fixture and Sevilla’s own defensive lapses (2.6 goals conceded per game in the last five) keep the draw and BTTS firmly in play. A 2-1 home win is the likeliest outcome, but the distribution is wide enough for high-scoring alternatives.
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Expected goals · model says 1.65
Expected goals · model says 1.10
Over 2.5 Goals
52%
BTTS: Yes
54%
Likely Scores
1-1 · 1-0 · 2-1
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Sevilla vs Osasuna that most previews miss.
- 1Osasuna have conceded at least three goals in three of their four away league matches this season.
- 2Sevilla have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five league games, conceding 13 goals in that span.
- 3Despite Osasuna’s poor away record, they have scored in 75% of their away league fixtures.
Who do you think wins: Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Sevilla vs Osasuna(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5@ 2.1
Both sides have averaged over 2.5 goals per game in 66.67% (Sevilla) and 44.44% (Osasuna) of their league matches, with Sevilla conceding 2.6 goals per game over the last five and Osasuna shipping 15 in four away games. The model's 54% probability for over 2.5 goals yields a 13% edge over the market.
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BTTS: Yes@ 1.9
Sevilla have seen both teams score in four of their last five, and Osasuna have managed at least one goal in three of their last five, with defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Model probability of 54% gives a small but positive edge.
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More La Liga Predictions
The Case For This Sevilla vs Osasuna Prediction
Statistically, this fixture sits above the league average for expected goals, with both Sevilla and Osasuna showing defensive vulnerabilities but enough attacking output to suggest a high probability of multiple goals. Sevilla’s home scoring rate (1.25 per game) and Osasuna’s away concession rate (3.75 per game) create a clear mismatch, while both sides’ recent matches have leaned towards goal-heavy outcomes. The most likely scenario is Sevilla edging a high-scoring contest, but Osasuna’s away threat and recent head-to-head record keep the draw and away win in play.
Key Factors at a Glance
Defence
- →Osasuna have conceded 15 goals in just four away league matches (3.75 per game).
- →Both teams have managed only one clean sheet in their last five matches.
Match Context
- →Sevilla have seen over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of their league fixtures.
🚩 Sevilla vs Osasuna Corners Prediction
high confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 3.4 corners for Sevilla and 3.8 for Osasuna, for an expected total of 7.2. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (81%). Over 8.5: 30% · Over 10.5: 12%.
How Sevilla and Osasuna Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Sevilla vs Osasuna Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Sevillalast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Osasunalast 5 matchesScoring consistently
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Sevilla’s recent form is mixed, with just one win in their last five league outings and a heavy 1-4 defeat to Real Madrid last time out. Osasuna snapped a poor run with a 2-0 home win over Racing Santander, but their away form remains a concern, having lost three of four on the road and conceding heavily.
Sevilla vs Osasuna — Last 9 Matches
Strengths
- +Both teams scoring in most recent games
- +Over 2.5 goals in 66.67% of games this season
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.6 conceded/game
Concerns
- −Inconsistent — 3+ losses in last 5
- −Leaky defence — 2.4 conceded/game
What History Says: Sevilla vs Osasuna
Osasuna have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning five of the last ten, including three away wins at Sevilla. The fixture has produced a mix of results, with four draws and only three matches exceeding two goals, though current defensive trends suggest a higher goal tally this time.
Sevilla vs Osasuna Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
1
Sevilla wins
4
Draws
5
Osasuna wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Sevilla vs Osasuna
The model finds the strongest value in the over 2.5 goals market, with a 13% edge over bookmaker odds (model: 54%, market: 47.6%). There is also a small positive edge on both teams to score (model: 54%, market: 51.3%). The 1X2 market is closely aligned, though the draw offers a negligible value margin.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Sevilla vs Osasuna
- ⚠️Sevilla's defensive numbers are skewed by recent heavy defeats to top sides.
- ⚠️Osasuna's away record is poor, but their attack has shown flashes against weaker defences.
- ⚠️No significant injuries reported, but starting lineups are not yet confirmed.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Sevilla 2–1 OsasunaSevilla are favoured to edge a high-scoring contest, with a predicted 2-1 win built on Osasuna’s league-worst away defensive record (15 conceded in four). The strongest data point is Osasuna’s 3.75 goals conceded per away game, but Sevilla’s own defensive issues and Osasuna’s strong head-to-head record mean a draw or even an away win cannot be dismissed.
Sevilla vs Osasuna: Common Questions
Who will win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Sevilla are modelled as 48% likely winners, with a 29% chance of a draw and Osasuna at 23%. The edge comes from Osasuna’s poor away defensive record, but Sevilla’s own recent form and head-to-head history keep the probabilities spread.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
There is a 54% probability for both teams to score, based on Sevilla’s four BTTS results in their last five and Osasuna’s ability to find the net in three of their last five, despite both sides’ defensive frailties.
Is over 2.5 goals a good bet for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
The model assigns a 54% chance to over 2.5 goals, with Sevilla matches going over this line in 66.67% of league games and Osasuna conceding heavily away. This is higher than the market-implied probability, suggesting a value edge.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Sevilla vs Osasuna: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 19 October 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.