Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Predictions
Serie A · Brazil
Chapecoense-sc
Full Time
3 - 3
AI predicted 0 - 2
Bahia
Win Probability (1X2)
Best Value Pick
BTTS: No
@ 2.05(+17% edge)
Match Result
8.5/10Six-Goal Thriller as Chapecoense and Bahia Share the Spoils in Chapecó
Arena Condá played host to a pulsating 3-3 draw between Chapecoense and Bahia, with both sides trading blows in a match brimming with attacking intent and momentum swings. Bahia looked to stamp their authority early, dominating possession with 65% and registering 18 shots, but Chapecoense's resilience and clinical finishing kept the contest on a knife-edge throughout. Goals arrived at regular intervals, with Bahia striking first in the 13th minute before Chapecoense responded just six minutes later. The visitors twice took the lead, only for the hosts to claw their way back each time, culminating in a dramatic equalizer in the 72nd minute. Despite late pressure from both teams, neither could find the decisive breakthrough, leaving the points deservedly shared after a breathless encounter.
💀 AI Prediction Report
DOWN BADPredicted
0 - 2
Actual
3 - 3
💰 Bet Results0/1 hit
Key Moments
13' — Goal
Alejo Véliz gives Bahia an early lead, finishing off a sweeping move.
19' — Goal
Kevin Ramírez equalizes for Chapecoense, capitalizing on a rare attacking spell.
42' — Goal
Rodrigo Nestor restores Bahia's lead with a composed finish before halftime.
48' — Goal
Chapecoense respond immediately after the break, leveling through Giovanni Augusto.
65' — Goal
Bahia edge ahead for the third time, this time through Erick Pulga.
72' — Goal
Chapecoense refuse to lie down, equalizing once more to make it 3-3.
78' — Yellow Card
Bahia's Jean Lucas booked as tempers flare in the closing stages.
Chapecoense-sc
Chapecoense may have ceded the lion's share of possession, but they made their moments count, scoring three times from just 12 shots and 3 on target. Their 4-3-3 setup allowed them to strike swiftly on the counter, and their midfield worked tirelessly to disrupt Bahia's rhythm. Defensive frailties were exposed at times, particularly when Bahia flooded forward, but the hosts' fighting spirit was undeniable as they came from behind twice to secure a hard-earned point.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Bahia
Bahia controlled the tempo for long spells, enjoying 65% possession and registering 18 shots (4 on target). Their 3-1-4-2 formation allowed for width and numbers in midfield, with sustained pressure yielding three goals. However, defensive vulnerabilities and lapses in concentration allowed Chapecoense to equalize on three occasions. Despite a disciplined approach and more composed build-up play, Bahia ultimately lacked the killer instinct to put the game beyond reach.
Key Players
Strengths
Weaknesses
Tactical Analysis
Chapecoense lined up in a 4-3-3, looking to absorb pressure and break quickly, a strategy that paid dividends with their direct attacking play. Their midfield trio worked hard to disrupt Bahia's flow but struggled to maintain possession. Bahia's 3-1-4-2 formation allowed them to overload the midfield and control the ball, with Nicolás Acevedo anchoring and providing cover for the back three. The visitors utilized their wing-backs and central overloads to create chances, but their high line left them vulnerable to Chapecoense's counters. Both managers made tactical tweaks through substitutions, but neither side could find the winner in a frenetic final quarter.
Turning Point
Chapecoense's equalizer in the 72nd minute, which shifted momentum and ensured a share of the spoils.
Man of the Match
Kevin Ramírez
Scored a crucial goal and consistently troubled Bahia's defense with his movement and directness.
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia: Match Preview
Chapecoense enter this fixture at the foot of the table, winless in their last five (LDDLL) and with a single victory from 20 league matches. Their home record is dire—just one win and 24 goals conceded in 10 matches—while Bahia arrive fifth, unbeaten in four, and with a solid away profile (4W, 3D, 3L). The gulf in league position and points (Bahia 32, Chapecoense 10) underscores the disparity in quality and momentum.
Statistically, this is a clash between the league's weakest defence and a Bahia side that, while not explosive away from home, are consistent and disciplined. Chapecoense average just 0.4 goals per game in their last five and have failed to score in four of those. Bahia's defensive solidity (1.19 goals conceded per game, 28.6% clean sheet rate) contrasts sharply with Chapecoense's blunt attack, and Bahia's shot suppression (1.6 shots on target allowed per match over the last five) should keep the hosts at bay. Set-piece threat is muted on both sides, with corners averaging under 4 per game each recently.
The model projects a low-scoring away win, with Bahia most likely to strike in the first half and then manage the game. Chapecoense's inability to create high-quality chances and Bahia's defensive structure make a home goal unlikely. The likeliest scorelines are 0-2 or 0-1, with value on Bahia to win and 'BTTS: No' given the underlying rates.
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Expected goals · model says 0.90
Expected goals · model says 1.65
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
BTTS: Yes
48%
Likely Scores
0-1 · 1-1 · 0-2
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Powered by the same Poisson scoreline model behind the prediction. For fun and exploration — not betting advice.
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction Confidence at a Glance
How strongly the model leans on each market.
Stats Worth Knowing
The numbers behind Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia that most previews miss.
- 1Chapecoense have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches, averaging just 2 shots on target per game in that span.
- 2Bahia's last three away league matches have all finished level, but they've conceded only twice across those games.
- 3Across the last 10 H2H meetings, only three have seen both teams score.
Who do you think wins: Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Cast your vote, then see how it stacks up against the model.
Where the Model Sees Value: Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia(2)
Selections where the model's probability beats the bookmaker's implied probability. Expected value is computed from real consensus odds, not opinion.
Match Result: Bahia Win@ 2.08
Bahia's away win probability is 54% by the model against implied odds probability of 48.8%, driven by Chapecoense's 1 win in 20 and 2.4 goals conceded per home game.
Read more ↓
BTTS: No@ 2.09
Chapecoense have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 and average just 0.95 goals per game; Bahia's defence concedes only 1.19 per game, supporting a high probability of at least one clean sheet.
Read more ↓
More Serie A Predictions
The Case For This Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Prediction
Chapecoense, rock bottom with just 1 win in 20 and shipping over 2 goals per game, face a Bahia side sitting fifth and unbeaten in their last four league matches. Bahia's away record is solid (4W, 3D, 3L) and their defensive numbers (1.19 goals conceded per game, 28.6% clean sheet rate) far outstrip Chapecoense's anaemic attack. The model expects Bahia to control the tempo, exploit Chapecoense's defensive frailty, and limit home chances, with a low probability of the hosts finding the net.
Key Factors at a Glance
Attack
- →Chapecoense have scored just 0.4 goals per game across their last five matches and failed to score in four of those.
Defence
- →Bahia's away defence concedes 1.4 per game but has kept two clean sheets in their last five overall.
- →Chapecoense's home record: 1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses, 13 scored, 24 conceded.
🚩 Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Corners Prediction
medium confidenceOur corners model projects roughly 4.8 corners for Chapecoense-sc and 4.2 for Bahia, for an expected total of 9. That makes the model lean Under 9.5 corners (59%). Over 8.5: 54% · Over 10.5: 29%.
How Chapecoense-sc and Bahia Are Arriving
Form, fitness and who's likely to start.
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Goalscorer Form
Goals scored in last 5 matches across all competitions. Rate = goals ÷ 5 games. XI badge shows player is in the expected starting lineup.
Chapecoense-sclast 5 matchesRegular contributor
Regular contributor
Occasional threat
Bahialast 5 matchesOccasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Occasional threat
Chapecoense's recent form is bleak, with no wins in their last five and four matches without scoring. Bahia, by contrast, are unbeaten in four league games and have conceded just twice in their last three away fixtures, showing greater stability and resilience.
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia — Last 10 Matches
What History Says: Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia
Bahia have the edge in the recent head-to-head, winning four of the last ten meetings and taking the reverse fixture 2-0 just a month ago. Only three of the last ten have seen both teams score, and away wins have been common in recent encounters.
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia Head-to-Head History
Last 10 meetings between these sides
2
Chapecoense-sc wins
4
Draws
4
Bahia wins
Where the Model Disagrees with the Odds: Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia
The model identifies value on Bahia to win at 2.05 (model probability 54%, edge +10.7%), and on 'BTTS: No' at 2.05 (model probability 69%, edge +16.5%). Both are supported by Chapecoense's scoring drought and defensive frailty, with the market underestimating the likelihood of a Bahia clean sheet.
Odds from Bet365. Positive edge = our model gives a higher probability than the odds imply. EV = expected value per £1 staked.
1X2
Over/Under 2.5
Both Teams Score
Best Value Markets Found by the Model
EV per £1 staked. Positive EV means this bet has mathematical edge over the long run. Past model accuracy is tracked on our predictions tracker.
Edge and EV are derived from model probabilities only and do not constitute financial advice. Odds fluctuate — always verify current prices with your bookmaker.
Things to Watch: Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia
- ⚠️Bahia's attack has been less prolific away (1.2 goals per game) and their last three league matches have been draws.
- ⚠️Chapecoense's home xG and shot volume are modest but not catastrophic; a low-scoring draw is not out of the question if Bahia underperform.
- ⚠️No major injuries reported, but lineups are not available at time of prediction.
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Betting involves risk — always gamble responsibly.
Final Verdict
Chapecoense-sc 0–2 BahiaThe model's call is a 2-0 away win for Bahia, anchored by Chapecoense's league-worst defence (2.4 goals conceded per home game) and their chronic scoring issues. The biggest risk is Bahia's tendency to draw away from home and a possible underperformance in attack, but the underlying rates point strongly to an away win and at least one clean sheet.
Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia: Common Questions
Who will win Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Bahia are clear favourites with a 54% win probability, compared to just 17% for Chapecoense. This is driven by Bahia's 32 points and strong away record versus Chapecoense's single win and 41 goals conceded in 20 games.
Will both teams score in Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
The model gives only a 31% chance of both teams scoring, as Chapecoense have failed to score in four of their last five and Bahia's defence is among the league's most reliable.
Is over or under 2.5 goals more likely in Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia?
Under 2.5 goals is marginally favoured at 52%, with the most likely outcomes being 0-2 or 0-1. Chapecoense's attack rarely threatens, and Bahia's away matches average just 2.6 total goals.
How This Prediction Was Made
The numbers on this page come from a structured statistical pack for Chapecoense-sc vs Bahia: recent results and scoring data for both sides, home/away splits, the head-to-head record, current league standings, known injuries and live bookmaker odds, all sourced from the API-Football data feed.
This fixture was routed to The Numbers Desk, the statistical baseline — season-long rates, splits and distributions. An AI model running that profile analyses the pack and produces the probabilities, predicted score and written analysis shown above. Nothing is edited by hand, and no information outside the data pack is used.
Last updated: 9 August 2026 (refreshed automatically as new team data arrives). Every prediction is scored against the real result once the match finishes — see the verified track record or read the full methodology. Football is inherently uncertain: treat this page as analysis, not advice.